This is a very good side. Hard to beat if we have them all available in September.
Strategy Geelong 2024 best 22/23
- Thread starter Toe Poke
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This is a very good side. Hard to beat if we have them all available in September.
Agreed. The sub rule sucks for so many reasons.
The main reason I hate the sub rule is that it can give a false/midleading representation of a player's stats in the record books.
For example. If a player is used as a sub for 5 games and only comes on for a quarter or a half in each of those matches, It will still essentially be counted (on the surface at least) as them having played 5 full matches, even though they played no more than 50% of game time across those 5 weeks.
As a result, their numbers of kicks, marks, goals etc., will obviously be far lower than what they would have been if they had played those matches in full, thus meaning that their output is not really being fairly/accurately/clearly calculated.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
I prefer moc as the sub over atkins (i like atkins clearance ability in finals and i think MOC is an ideal sub as he covers lots of positions) but i think otherwise thats close.
I think parfitt is the one to fall out if anyone does.
I cant see rohan getting in the 22 how dempsey playing.
His only chance is if we use him as a specialist sub-i can see him impacting in the last qtr against tired players. But that would give us less tactical versatility than someone like MOC.
cats_09
Otters United
- Jun 21, 2011
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We've already seen Atkins moved out of the midfield rotation - he was playing in defence on Saturday night and in the end didn't have a clearance, the first time that's happened since round 9 2022
On the other hand, Parfitt lead the way for us with 7 clearances and so far this season he's second to only Bruhn (6.4) for average clearances per game with 6
Based on form this season, it's not Parfitt who should be dropped
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
Similar to the second half of '22, whoever misses out is going to be really stiff. Likewise the sub as you say.
Just such an even contribution at the minute.
If we played the GF tomorrow with everyone available, Guthrie for Clark and Stanley for Conway are the only changes I'd make, with MOC moving to the sub (stiff) for his versatility.
Back the likes of Bruhn, Bowes, Dempsey, & Henry in until they're genuinely stinking it up, which I doubt occurs.
Moving back to Rohan, Touhy, Bews, etc over those guys would be far more akin to Geelong of '12-21, and we seem to have shifted away from that since Hocking came back.
Nevertheless, I'd say they'll all get a shot at some point, as will Knevitt, Hardie, Mannagh, COS and maybe even Humphries as we rotate the squad, but we shouldn't shift too much from a winning formula IMO.
Our last two premiership sides have come with young fringe players cementing themselves during the year and proving they belong.
It's one of those intangible things that you can't actually prove, but it's felt like a circuit breaker in both those years that's reinvigorated the side, and I've got that same vibe this year.
If Rohan is fit he will play as his tackle pressure and strength in the tackle far exceeds any of those young players you mention
cats_09
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Pending Guthrie in & likely for Clark, who would Rohan replace from Saturday nights 23?
O. Henry is going at 2 goals per match - his 12 goals this season is only second to Cameron's 14 goals at the club
Dempsey is already spending more time up field & playing as a wing more than as a forward
Bowes hasn't looked out of place this season, and on Saturday night showed his versatility when dropping into defence after Stewart was concussed
As for Bruhn, he's our leading clearance player and won't be making way for anyone - let alone a forward
It's a very hard question to answer... and that can only be a good thing for the club.
I think we have hit an interesting time for team selection this week, because I simply can't see how Clark could be elevated to the starting side on form, and there's just about no way he is sub for the third week in a row.
Normally Touhy would just come in for Clark this week, but with Stewart out, Touhy may just be the in for him and Zuthrie will try to play Stewart's role whilst Touhy takes up Zuthries small defender spot.
Stewart out also opens up the small possibility that COS will come back.
Clark IMO, will be out, which opens up the possibility of Hardie debuting (or Knevitt coming in).
Stanley most likely just comes in for Conway.
All this and we still have Guthrie to come back and then the Rohan thing.
Sometimes selection looks pretty stock standard, but this week something different could happen.
Rohan would make an ideal sub imo.
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
He would, but even then who is he replacing?
Clark is already a given for Guthrie, as is Stanley for Conway...outside of that, there's not a lot of spots up for grabs.
None of Bruhn, Bowes, Dempsey or Ollie Henry would get dropped for Rohan, surely.
Bruhn is our best midfielder this year, Ollie our most consistent goalscorer, Bowes and Dempsey both very good. Bowes' flexibility is a major asset; Ollie Dempsey would be the one you'd drop if any, but his improvement from last year has been astronomical and for now, I'd keep him.
And yet I still would keep it.
The alternative was worse - clubs simply running out of legs because of a bad luck injury. With the modern game being so influenced by rotations and rest, losing a player (particularly a midfielder) early has pretty devastating consequences.
Geelong certainly benefited from the rule in the 2011 GF. I don't think we would have run over the top of them so emphatically if we had to play one short for most of the game.
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Well this is interesting. It's early days we know this, and you can only beat who you play but
www.espn.com.au
Patience and consistency: there's real 2022 vibes about Geelong this year
Few could find a spot for the Cats in their pre-season top eight, but once again this club is proving why it might be the most impressive organisation in the sport, writes Rohan Connolly.
Atkins
I think Tuohy makes a better one, because if I have an injury to cover, I'd prefer Tuohy.
As much as Reg has lost a yard, he can still play as a lockdown defender, as a running/intercept defender, as a midfielder, or (not all that well) as a defensive forward.
Rohan has, for now, only played one role in the last seven years.
At the start of the year Tuohy was my preferred sub for this reason and I still think it's a role he could play better now than full games.
With the congestion for spots approaching fast, it's not a sure thing that he ends up in the best 23. But anything other than a continued dream injury run and he will remain very useful.
Tuohy should have been retired. He must comeback through VFL now or those busting their guts in vfl could start to resent the selectors
All good points.
Bringing Rohan back may irresistible though given his closing speed.
And I agree the most likely then is Dempsey.
Having said that I don’t think the club would underestimate what he has bought to team defence in a different way to Rohan
Yes Rohan is feels supperior in the F50 no doubt…and when he does impact it looks specular. But when I looked at his 2023 stats vs Dempsey it surprised me (yes I am not comparing 2022 but…). And Dempsey in 2024
Rohan just under 9 possessions a game with 50% contested. Dempsey 16.3 with 45% contested
Rohan 2.1 shots at goal, 0.5 GA and 4.5 score involvements. Dempsey 2.3 shots at goal, 1.2 GA and 5.2 score involvements
Rohan 2.3 tackles of which 0.9 inside 50. Dempsey 3.7 tackles of which 1.5 inside 50
Pressure Acts 10.6 (2.5 in defensive half). Dempsey 14.2 (4.7 in defence). So 8.1 Rohan vs 9.5 Forward pressure acts
One %s 1.1. Dempsey 1.3
Ground ball gets 2.7 of which 1.3 inside 50. Dempsey 4.8 with 1.5 inside 50
So these are the facts. Maybe as all facts are it depends on time periods. And I was a bit suprised when I looked them up as “to the eye” you would expect Rohan to be better in stats on a number of these.
Yes the possessions are skewed by Dempsey on the wing for a bit of it but the stats forward are also pretty compelling (given he spent less % in forward line but has better averages). Not just offensive but his defensive stats really compare favourably.
It is hard to see how it improves the defensive aspect of the team swapping him out.
Now Rohan no doubt crashed the packs better than Dempsey but the other Ollie does that just was well as Rohan (and kicks more goals!).
Interesting (I think anyway).
Ollie Henry does not crash packs like Rohan
I can’t find any stats to prove or disprove. I think they are both pretty good at it but just my opinion as I can’t find support in numbers. I don’t think it is enough of a difference to ignore that Henry brings more offence than Rohan
I could repeat all the stats I did with Dempsey and Rohan comparison but in short he has 50% more shots at goal almost twice ave goals per game more goal assist and more score involvements. (As does Dempsey)
Even defensively he has more recorded pressure acts (AFL stats not mine) than Rohan (as does Dempsey) but does have half the tackles that Rohan has inside 50 (with Dempsey having more than both).
Anyway I was not trying to talk down Rohan - I feel the same as most of you do when I watch him - excited about his chases from behind…but I was trying to say that his natural replacements (either of the Ollies) actually (by the stats not to my eye!) add more (in Dempseys case) and similar (in Henry case) defensive pressure the way it is measured. And certainly more in terms of filling defensive holes all over the ground. And no questionably more offence.
The coaches will have all these stats (and GPS and more advanced ones) so they I assume will take all this into account. But I struggle to see how he replaces either of the Ollie’s unless a big drop off in form.
CHAWKTS: the other aspect that needs to be taken into consideration with Ollie Dempsey is that he more than any of our fab younger players in our side has more upside, but more-so in the 'second half of this season' as there's a real X factor about him. Even that last goal that Brendan Parfitt kicked in last quarter against the Lions on Saturday night in the pouring rain was through a brilliant tap from Ollie Dempsey to Brendan that was so good that it almost went unnoticed. He's always doing something extra clever in a game that is not even necessarily registered on the stat sheet. I just hope we keep getting more games into him because I reckon if we do, he'll be a 20% better player come finals time and hopefully also take 'mark of the year' which he's more than capable of doing.
This has actually been my theory, that between them O.Henry and Dempsey have covered the output that you would get from Rohan (sort of). The only thing missing is the increased aerial defensive work (equalising more balls from intercepts), but Ollie is improving in this area. I also think Rohan's presence itself panics opposition but there's not really a stat to measure that with.
It does seem like we are learning to adapt to his absence and need to anyway. He will play games but I'd say his output has to be very strong if that's to be converted to a best 22 spot. And team balance wise he now faces a challenge to displace others.
No, but he kicks a lot more goals.
Generally speaking, crashing packs is nice but it’s not an irreplaceable skill in our forward line - mostly because, with Duncan, Holmes and Miers, we generally do not bomb the ball to the top of the fifty. It’s either chiselled in with a precision kick, or hit to the hot spot where Hawkins already is.
So with almost half the season done and a good start and shaky last few weeks…and having seen all the “historical” best 23 over blocks of games….and a VFL team with players knocking down the door… I thought I would revisit.
But it is hard. In terms of knowing whether we are seeing players build or cap out…. I decided to break the group into some categories as a straight 23 is frankly too hard…
This is based on no injuries and making finals (different strategy otherwise)
Certain Best 23 (ie. no way they are not there in finals if available. Almost despite form)
Danger, Jezza, Miers, Close, Stewart, SDK, Zuthrie Holmes, Stengle
Almost Certain (ie. I can’t imagine them not in 23. would have to be so badly out of form for say 8-10 more rounds)
Hawkins, Blitz, Duncan, Close, Kolo, O Henry, J Henry
So that is 16 that I would be shocked if they are not best 23 come finals.
Probable - on the way up (ie. current form with likely improvement)
Bruhn, Dempsey, Conway, Bowes
Probable - but possibly on the way down
C Guthrie, MOC
So that is 22 in the probable and certain camp (chances are I have missed one?) leaving 1 spot - not enough for the likely let alone the possible and potential bolsters!
Likely (either for historical or form reasons they are good chance but not certain or even probable)
Rohan, 2E, Mullin, Clark, Atkins
Possibilities
Stanley (if Toby not ready), parfait,
Potential Bolters but unlikely (remembering this is no injury scenario)
Mannagh, Hardie?, Knevitt, Lawson
Ok. So I didn’t pick the best 23 but I suppose by my categories I have shown confidence in 22 with 1 of those I think more at risk….and we have 5 players as Likely” for the remaining spot
Who would you change categories for? I almost move blitz and Hawkins down from “almost certain” to “probables” but I couldn’t bring myself to it!
Edit: Added Bowes in thanks to #dbridge (forgot how to tag!)#dbridge
But it is hard. In terms of knowing whether we are seeing players build or cap out…. I decided to break the group into some categories as a straight 23 is frankly too hard…
This is based on no injuries and making finals (different strategy otherwise)
Certain Best 23 (ie. no way they are not there in finals if available. Almost despite form)
Danger, Jezza, Miers, Close, Stewart, SDK, Zuthrie Holmes, Stengle
Almost Certain (ie. I can’t imagine them not in 23. would have to be so badly out of form for say 8-10 more rounds)
Hawkins, Blitz, Duncan, Close, Kolo, O Henry, J Henry
So that is 16 that I would be shocked if they are not best 23 come finals.
Probable - on the way up (ie. current form with likely improvement)
Bruhn, Dempsey, Conway, Bowes
Probable - but possibly on the way down
C Guthrie, MOC
So that is 22 in the probable and certain camp (chances are I have missed one?) leaving 1 spot - not enough for the likely let alone the possible and potential bolsters!
Likely (either for historical or form reasons they are good chance but not certain or even probable)
Rohan, 2E, Mullin, Clark, Atkins
Possibilities
Stanley (if Toby not ready), parfait,
Potential Bolters but unlikely (remembering this is no injury scenario)
Mannagh, Hardie?, Knevitt, Lawson
Ok. So I didn’t pick the best 23 but I suppose by my categories I have shown confidence in 22 with 1 of those I think more at risk….and we have 5 players as Likely” for the remaining spot
Who would you change categories for? I almost move blitz and Hawkins down from “almost certain” to “probables” but I couldn’t bring myself to it!
Edit: Added Bowes in thanks to #dbridge (forgot how to tag!)#dbridge
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If I was nitpicking I'd say "likely" means the same as "probable" and there can't be 26 probable players in the best 23.
I'd probably just lock in the 19 or 20 certainties/probables and then have the last few spots split into a "scrapping for spots".
Here's my attempt, based on form or expectation of form as the season progresses (MCs perspective more than mine, perhaps just a sprinkle of how I see it added). I've tried to do a pecking order within categories too:
Certain/almost certain
Dangerfield
Cameron
Stewart
Miers
Holmes
Stengle
Zuthrie
Kolo
O Henry
Duncan
J Henry
Close
Bruhn
Dempsey
Blicavs
SDK
A decent chance
Hawkins
Bowes
Cam Guthrie
50/50 (rucks)
Conway
Stanley
Scrapping for last 3 spots
O'Connor
Parfitt
Atkins
Clark
Mullin
Rohan
Tuohy
Smokies
Neale
Mannagh
Hardie
Humphries
Knevitt
O'Sullivan
Of course if they pull the trigger on dropping/managing a few out of form players, then smokies playing well can shift things.
The "decent chance"ers need to find form to stay in. I think Atkins and Parfitt are somewhat back with the pack now. O'Connor is valued but I don't think he in undroppable.
Hawkins is only in "decent chance" in case things don't improve or get worse, in which case Neale still is a shot at displacing him. But I still see that as unlikely this year.
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