I don't agree. The math is kind of irrelevant, the issue is form and ceiling. Our recent form has been slowly improving (I thought Brisbane were pretty good), and our ceiling is up there with the contenders. That means there is nothing stopping us having a really good second half of the season. Sure it's more likely that we fall away again, but i think there is a fallacy in extrapolating from one half of a season and presuming the outcome. Winning 7 games out of 9 is perfectly achievable for a good side in good form.
Well you're sort of contradicting yourself. On one hand you're saying we shouldn't 'presume the outcome' based on a half a season. But then you're saying our 'recent form' (assuming you mean the past four rounds) is slowly improving, giving us a chance.
Not having a go or wanting to rain on your parade or anything, but we'd need to win 7 or 8 out of the remaining 9, with 6 of those remaining games coming against top 8 sides. It's quite simply not going to happen. I'd rather have a realistic outlook, hope to win the games we should win and finish off the year as best we can.