Analysis What has happened since quarter time in Round 17?

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bradfisher14

bradfisher14

Not actually Brad Fisher
Aug 24, 2021
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Carlton
Off the back of a 5 game winning streak, the Blues put 8 goals on GWS in a quarter and a home qualifying final in the first week of September looked to be a very real possibility for the first time in a generation …

Since those dizzying highs, our team has been in free fall going 1-3 and our place in September no longer appears to be a fait accompli.

What has happened? Do you have any outlandish theories or is there a simple explanation?
 
I can't explain it either but the eye test tells you that it has to do with the midfield imo. Far too many easy exits from stoppage for opposition midfielders leading to clean i50 entries. As we only play the one true key defender it means we get exposed. Personnel is largely the same in that midfield group so cannot explain why it's happening more now than before. We have also now had games with TDK alone, Pittonet alone and the two rucks in the last few games and it's largely remained unchanged - so doesn't seem to be a ruck thing.
 
Imo: we made some luxury (arrogant) moves that backfired, and we’ve been reacting/trying to recover the mojo since.
We are back to the days of we only have one way to play/no plan B.

GWS game specifically:

We picked Cottrell as he is a fav/important, but he was clearly UNDERDONE he wasn’t even moving well at the light af captains run. He looked sore
We also dropped Hewett, after playing him as sub at some point. How he fell out of favour I dunno, but it’s laughable how much it’s Cripps or bust given walsh is out of form (has to adjust to new HtB rule)
We also flew up just the day before, and the flight was delayed. If the club wants to take interstate games seriously, please get to the location more than 28hours ahead of the bounce. Add an extra day ffs (do $ drive this decision??)

Since we’ve also done stuff like:
  • Play pitto at the wrong stage (not vs gws, but did against english..??? Wot?)
  • Drop kemp as punishment and favoured marchy (crazy kemp didn’t play vs north)
  • Hidden Cerra on field (half back, seriously?) played Kennedy in def
We are again showing poor list depth due to injuries, BUT the craziest thing is the inability of the team and coaches to adjust the game day strategy accordingly. What have we tried when it’s not worked?
What other team loses their second best forward and is as exposed as we were last night? It’s embarrassing.

What has looked good:
  • Elijah - we need to feed him the ball. Looks like the smartest player we’ve got. I like the days where he is attending more than a dozen CBAs
  • The way we defended kick ins last night looked great. Imo we’ve worked on this
  • Hewett back in the side. Shocking he was ever out. Even after a slow start he was good last night
 

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carlton_99 said:
I can't explain it either but the eye test tells you that it has to do with the midfield imo. Far too many easy exits from stoppage for opposition midfielders leading to clean i50 entries. As we only play the one true key defender it means we get exposed. Personnel is largely the same in that midfield group so cannot explain why it's happening more now than before. We have also now had games with TDK alone, Pittonet alone and the two rucks in the last few games and it's largely remained unchanged - so doesn't seem to be a ruck thing.
Click to expand...
It starts and ends with the midfield. We've been badly outscored from stoppages in the 3 losses - 29 points vs GWS, 20 points vs Bulldogs, 23 points vs Port. We broke even against North.

If we can't get this part of the game right, we're cooked. We're outscoring off turnover but hemorrhaging through the middle.

Walsh is not the same player he was 5 weeks ago, whether injured or sore. Cerra has come back with no intensity, to the point where the coaches don't trust him in the middle any more.
 
Can we please stop with this Sam Walsh struggling to adapt to the new holding the ball interpretation nonsense.
Seriously.
He’s injured. If it’s not his back then it’s something new or a combination of both.
He got up off the ground after a ball up / clearance contest last night like he was 70 years old.
That’s the sole reason he’s not the player he was in last years finals series.
It’s hugely worrying that the medical team haven’t been able to get him right over the last couple of years.
Though that worry extends across 5 to 6 players on the list.
If 10 to 15% of your list spots are taken by players who struggle to get on the park then depth is going to be exposed when the balance of the playing group get banged up throughout the year.
Add that to the identified list deficiencies / player deficiencies, then you end up where we’re at.
A concerning issue is how we loose our DNA so quickly - The way we play the game. Our game is based off contest & pressure - When our depth is tested we loose that DNA and revert back to low IQ individual based game play.
It astounds me that Charlie can be triple teamed and we don’t find a loose player whom has worked into space.
This is predominantly caused by having three smalls whom are athletically limited from a pace perspective. They cant work back from their up the ground positional responsibilities to either be an option or at the fall of the ball from a bigs marking contest. This isn’t helped by a midfield brigade that has the same issues.
Our back six were under siege last night because they didn’t have a bail option down the line with McKay out.
The MC in their wisdom played Lewis Young in the McKay role…..
Young struggles at VFL level.
So we replaced one of the best, if not the best, CHFs in the comp with Young instead of changing up the game plan to suit the cattle
This left Kemp thrown to the wolves defending Rotugolea.
Because the MC know that the person in the list spot that should be playing on him (Young) simply isn’t up to it. The other option had played two games in three years.
Poor list management and static coaching are going to limit your chances come the big one.
To jag one almost everything has to be right. From my perspective we’ve got too many misalignments that will impact our ability this year to do so.
 
I feel like Walsh is struggling in the guts. I’d revert back to that plan we had last year where he starts in the forward 50 and then just plays like a midfielder. He loses his man easily and can be that outnumber player at the contest that helps link the play.

Get Cerra back on the ball now and Boyd back in the team so he can pierce the zone with his field kicking.


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cottrell's main difference since returning would be kicking less goals, kicked 8 in 9 games before injury. kicked his first in 4 games last night. his other stats aren't remarkably different (avg 1 less possession, 1 more tackle). difference might be how honest he keeps his opponent.

we've coughed up leads all year, this is not new. 'disappearing', not new. that was a feature of the first 2/3rds of last year, many 1 and 0 goal quarters until the bye.
what seems new is that we don't play as much tempo football anymore. probably because we can't maintain possession escaping defence and flubbing stoppages too.

i know arrogance is often discussed but doesn't seem right. we've shit in our own bathwater the last few weeks so i don't think we can be drinking it while losing 2 games in a row, falling in against north.

not sure what to make of things like the walsh non-block. is it simply him not doing the team thing? walsh backed his opponent to win the ball? avoiding contact? walsh some sort of designated receiver compared to whoever it was leading to the ball (forgotten)? would be odd, considering walsh's not very perfect disposal of late.
regardless, it was a lower percentage play. video footage for training during the week.

have long wanted to think teams adjust to our great starts and their adjustment just upends our game. out of our skins for a quarter and the opposition get a good look at us, then nullify us. do we do anything successfully after that? if the ball lands in charlie's lap then we get away with it.
 
A few thoughts in addition to all the items you mentioned above which i agree with...

I think losing TDK and the form he was is prior to him being rested a few weeks back is a big reason. His clearance work around the ground was pretty special and also brought energy and intensity around the ball which energized others.

I think we've been the hunted more often than not and we prefer to be the hunter rather than the prey. This is about our intensity and pressure which hasn't been consistent and dropped off.

An awful part that has re-entered our game is the kicking long down the line. When the pressure is on we resort to this rather than short hit-up kicks and more often than not we lose possession, turn the ball over, and invite the pressure back on our defense again with repeat entries. It then almost becomes worse with dump kicking following due to the sustained pressure.

Walshy is down on form. He can still accumulate but has become our worst kick i50 and is getting pinged more often than not under the new rules for holding the ball. His technique is to hold the ball under 1 armpit and use his core strength which results in him standing in the tackle thus being adjudged to have held the ball when his other arm is held and he's still standing.

Poor i50 kicking. Not lowering our eyes enough. Kicking to the opposition interceptor. Putting it on Charlie's head rather than in front of him. Same stuff from last year.
 
I think it’s a little bit of a lot of things.
-It’s rushing players back from injury subsequently unsettling the mojo we had going.
-It’s playing players out of their natural position to fit in all the bigger name players.
-It’s still not knowing what our best lineup looks like (e.g. 2 rucks or 1, how many mids, how many tall defenders etc.). We simply still do not know what we deem our best 22.
-It’s a lack of continuity of the ‘best 22’ being able to play together.
-It’s dropping players and telling them they have things to work on in the reserves only to bring them straight back in after 3 VFL quarters.
-It’s injuries which contribute to some/many of the points above.
-It’s slow reaction on game day to make changes (e.g. Young switching back to Esava).
-It’s not enough rotation of our core midfielders causing them to be smashed and fatigued.
-It’s going into our shells when the opposition get momentum and then getting hemmed in our backline and long kicking down the line. It’s predictable and the opposition set up for it.
-It’s Curnow getting held and no other tall contesting to bring the ball to ground subsequently resulting in conceding repeat inside 50s putting our defensive unit under the pump.
-It’s refusing to take a risky kick into the corridor during these patches even if our players are open for it. Maybe a little bit of self preservation and not wanting to be the one who turns it over.
-It’s having a defensive unit that is so concerned about beating their own man that they rarely peel off and cover another opponent.
-It’s an inability to defend D50 stoppage for whatever reason. This confuses more than anything else.
-It’s a drop off in intent and that manic pressure that fuels our game.
-It’s the midfield not dominating like it did last year. A lot of this has to do with how we set up at stoppages and leave so much space all on the one side.
-It’s a lack of a second genuine defensive tall and having to play so many natural interceptors (e.g. Gov, Kemp, Marchbank) who get outbodied and have no natural one-on-one ability.
-It’s our small forwards clogging the leading lanes and being flat footed at the ball drop. No natural crumbing instincts.
-It’s not best utilising the weaponry we have at our disposal (Curnow, Saad, Weiters etc.).

That’s how I see it. I’m sure I missed a few points. But footy is a simple game by and large. Hunt and outwork the opponent with a greater intent and move the ball with dare to create space and better chances for dangerous forwards. That’s the secret sauce and covers a lot of deficiencies.
 
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It's a psychological issue.

We get too comfortable and some of the players expect other heads to do the hard work. They're not playing like their lives depended on it, like GWS, Dogs and Port have done. That is the difference ultimately. We just need the want, that is the core issue.
 
It wasn’t quarter time when the change came, it was earlier.
Either with team selection, or, with 20 seconds to go in that first quarter, when Weitering made a moronic decision to kick laterally to Ollie Hollands.

From that point on we’ve gone away from solid basics, taking the first option, good decision making and applying high pressure.
Things that were evident in our run of good form.
 
The forward leading up the wing to provide a target, doesn't have to be 200cm tall if you are delivering the ball properly. Kemp would be a great fill in for Silvagni in that role. He has good hands, decent pace and if he drops it, his athleticism allows him to recover quickly.

If you are going to play Young anyway, putting him back on a taller opponent that Kemp struggles with and letting Kemp go forward is a no-brainer. Plus Kemp can fly for marks to his heart's content up there. If there is one thing he can do, it is crash packs.

Walsh needs to stop trying to accumulate. He doesn't have to be the one running past for a quick handball and roost. He's not doing it when we have a catchup advantage up forward most of the time. That's just not his go. Newman, Saad and McGovern should be the ones doing that.

Further to the point made above about kicking it on top of an outnumbered Curnow, part of that is up to Charlie.

Teams generally stand in the hole in front of Charlie. By the time time he gets to the drop of the ball, he is impacted front and back more often than not. He needs to change things up. Take note of the first goal vs Port, where Charlie ran a slant route to the right and back again in front of the players in the hole. Then it just takes one of those gifted kickers to lower the eyes and lay it in front of him. In that case it was McGovern. It looked so easy, but compared to what we are used to, it was a thing of rare beauty.

I agree we want Boyd back, but he definitely earned his omission. He was nowhere defensively and his kicking deserted him. If you are going to persevere with an out of form player though, persevere with one who has a game changing one wood, not one who can run up and down the ground all day with minimal effect.

We were better this year when the workload was being shared. Lately, it has been all about Walsh and Cripps racking up the stats by injecting themselves into every play. Teams have worked Walsh out. They know he is playing a little bit hungry and as a vice-captain, team-mates are going to give it to him, so they are sweating on him. I'd like to see him doing more sacrifice running, in order to buy time and space for his teammates.
 
I really think since rnd 17 the list has been exposed for its lack of players who can move the ball, reliance on 1KPF and players like Lewis Young, Durdin and the perenially injured crew. (Wouldn't Liam Mcmahon have been useful yesterday?) The midfield is not that good. Once we lose contest, we can not move the ball. This is exentiated by the walsh's loss of pace and Cerra's form falling off a cliff. The list has no outside winners to replace them. OHollands is over hyped and we miss what cunners, martin, cottrel did at the back of last year.

The responsibility for this lies at the foot of Nick Austin who has produced minimal list augmentation in 4 to 5 years. One, also needs to go back to the review where only the coach was replaced. The Camporeales will not fix the problem.
We can not win a premiership in 2024 with these deficiencies. We could recover to win a final or play above ourselves and win a prelim.
 
I know that we’ll never get one, but I would love an explanation on this from the club.

At the very least, I hope they plan to have an extensive internal review at the end of the season.

The fact that we have thrown away a top two finish from the position we were in needs to be seriously looked at. At this point, I don’t know how we’re ever going to get over the line when it really counts with this current group.
 
bradfisher14 said:
I know that we’ll never get one, but I would love an explanation on this from the club.

At the very least, I hope they plan to have an extensive internal review at the end of the season.

The fact that we have thrown away a top two finish from the position we were in needs to be seriously looked at. At this point, I don’t know how we’re ever going to get over the line when it really counts with this current group.
Click to expand...

The form surge of a few clubs, the demise of the Pies, the perennial fade out of the Bombers, and the fall away of Sydney, has helped keep a lot of scrutiny off us.
 
Losing Oh No GIF by Star Now
 
The Return of the Paf said:
When our best six players aren't all firing at the same time, we don't really have much.
Click to expand...
I disagree with this.

When our system broke down, then only the best players still looked good, as everyone else depends on the system working.

Charlie Curnow looks good taking big marks and kicking goals. Jordan Boyd needs the defensive coverage of teammates so he isn't caught in a mismatch. Etc



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Analysis What has happened since quarter time in Round 17?

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