Opinion What it would take to win a flag in 2024.

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Oct 12, 2007
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The Hills
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Sacking Hinkley aside (it isn't going to happen mid season when finals are still a chance) we know that teams that have looked ordinary at the mid season point can go on a run and win flags.

I don't for a minute think that will happen, but just for a minute imagine that it did (and it would pretty much need to start this weekend). What would need to occur?

For mine it would be...

Georgie and Marshall kicking 2 goals a game (mostly onthe lead)
Rioli staying fit
Dixon/Lord playing their role as 3rd tall/ruck
Goal kicking percentages improving by 10%
Rozee stepping up as skipper and owning his role
Butters learning to break a tag
The tall back three learning to use each other's strengths and minimise weaknesses.

And most importantly everyone getting fed up with losing and deciding as a team to do something about it (like George Castanza doing the opposite).

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I think your bottom line is the bottom line. Play like men, not boys, believe in what you are doing and believe that you can beat anyone. The gap between teams is not great. The talent is there, it's now 90% mental.

If the midfield redlines every game, most of the other issues raised will take care of themselves.

How much do you want it?

Also a couple of brave selection decisions. Lord shouldn't ruck and lead a forward line. Just let him be a forward then take a chance on Scully who can ruck as back up and provide a forward option.

Rioli aside, our small forwards aren't threatening at all (DBJ to some extent is). If you can pick Evans you can pick Anastasopoulos.

The Brisbane game to me is the final chance for them to prove they want it.
 
I honestly don't think we have the list anymore. You look at Sydney and Carlton and even their average performances look better than our best performances. That hasn't been the case since probably 2019. Since then we've always had a top gear that matches the very best. This year I've seen no evidence of that whatsoever.

So in short, it would take a miracle. Reckon if everything clicked from here our upper level would still be more like 5th-6th than contending.
 

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The Flag we can win in 2024

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Sydney & Carlton to get done for salary cap breaches
Collingwood to get done for PEDs
Melbourne blows up so the Grand Final moves to Adelaide.
Crows still miss out on the finals so we don't play them.

Even then, we'll be slightly 50/50
 
kent being sacked
mcentee, evans, narkle being delisted or never be played at afl level anymore
rozee leanrs to not be soft
butters breaks his tags
aliir finnaly wakes up from his 2 year coma
ratogelou and zerk thatcher gel with the backline
sweet proves he is a serviceable ruckman
dixon gets delisted
our forward line becomes functional
we dont become scared on the friday/saturday night games and away vs good opposition
we lose the flat tack bully nametag
 
I look at the team and I honestly can't see it.

Don't think the gameplan, medium to lower end talent or real desire is there.

Maybe they prove me wrong but I doubt it.

Possibly if something happened to massively galvanise the group but it is a non contract year and the us against them thing we might have used is the club against the fans.

Maybe if Lord exploded ...Chuck sacrificed his ability to move on later life by becoming THE dominant second ruckman. We unearthed another dominant small forward and Rioli dominates.

The 2004 era team knew it's best was good enough for long enough.

Not sure the same can be said now.

And referencing Dirty's post they get on board we get on board and it is a helluva ride.
 
Everyone is crap at present except Swans and Hawks.

Both have minimal injured players.

Everyone needs to be fit.

Our game plan does not stack up against quality opposition. That needs to become something a little more methodical.
 

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Sacking Hinkley.

Imagine sacking him and then making a grand final in the same season.
Makes me hard just thinking about it.
 
This ship sailed the moment Hinkley signed on the dotted line for 2 more years. Seriously. That was club management sending the message from the Board, down to the players and the strappers that premierships are not what the club is here for. They're here to make up numbers, be relatively competitive, and not make too much of a ruckus. It became abundantly clear years ago that Ken Hinkley was not premiership material, and by extending his contract the players knew that's not their high bar.
 
To focus on your question and leaving the mindset, belief, confidence stuff aside and the fact that I don’t think the current players and staff are equipped to change the game plan, find another level and try new or different tactics and approaches. Nor do they have the fitness.

- our press is too high. This needs a reset. Teams are transitioning very easily against us and we aren’t turning the ball over in dangerous areas or the midfield. It’s also physically demanding and relies on good leadership to set it up. Lose players and it breaks down. Towards the ends of quarters, it breaks down as fatigue sets in. We need a plan B, maybe flood the defence in the last 5-7 minutes of quarters and just hold possession - something that requires less energy and leadership.

- we are rubbish on outside contest ground ball gets. This basically means we are terrible at winning the ball when in dispute outside of the contest. It’s a combination of set ups, work rate and not having the right players. Premiership sides rate highly in this, we do not.

- have a plan for moving the ball if the corridor is cut off.

- get a tagger to shut down the oppo’s best. I actually think Lachie Jones would suit this well. Has the size and speed to play on most, even if they drag him forward.

- build depth. Rotate players through the squad. Get games into Lorenz, Jackson, etc

- follow Carlton’s example with midfield set ups. Basically move back and push the opposition forward so that it’s harder for the opposition to win clear possession.
 
Does anyone think that we could get on a run this year and win it? If Rozee Butters JHF clicked in the second half of the season, we could be anything. I wouldn't play Soldo or Sweet anymore, Visentini would be my number one ruck. I also don't wanna see Wines anymore as he has constantly failed as a leader. Drop him

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Opinion What it would take to win a flag in 2024.

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