What would a Dutton Liberal leadership mean for the Liberals and the country?

[Saint]

she’s been an outstanding local member. kept her electorate informed about both her parliamentary and electorate matters throughout her term. had the boundaries not been redrawn to favour the reactionaries she’d have walked in another term. still think she’ll hold the seat.

she’s far from “on the nose”. that’s just the diarrhea factory fulfilling its role as the libs propaganda unit.

In areas like this, the MSM in Victoria, when they misrepresent teal and Greens voters, are doing the Libs a dis-service, it only makes people more likely to vote against the status quo of the major parties and reinforce/realise that they've been lied to by the major parties and the media for years.

Victoria will definitely see a swing away from Albanese, but I think it will be away from Dutton as well. With independents the biggest winners.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

For every messianic quote that Trump makes and every Nazi salute Musk throws up, you've gotta think at least a percentage point will come off of Dutton's personal popularity in WA, SA, the ACT and Victoria.

At least the closer we get to an election.

These buffoons are overegging it, particularly adopting the Trumpian sounding slogan "get Australia back on track". The longer the public have to take in the American disaster, I think the more they will recoil. Such is the nature of a globalised media. Add in improving economic fundamentals and I'm not sure being a bully and a blowhard wannabe strongman is going to resonate.

 

[Saint]

For every messianic quote that Trump makes and every Nazi salute Musk throws up, you've gotta think at least a percentage point will come off of Dutton's personal popularity in WA, SA, the ACT and Victoria.

At least the closer we get to an election.

These buffoons are overegging it, particularly adopting the Trumpian sounding slogan "get Australia back on track". The longer the public have to take in the American disaster, I think the more they will recoil. Such is the nature of a globalised media. Add in improving economic fundamentals and I'm not sure being a bully and a blowhard wannabe strongman is going to resonate.

A bit like America, it'll be heard differently in different locations. It gets zero traction in Victoria, where people simply recoil, but at home in Queensland, it's exactly what the CWA wants to hear.

 

[RedStarUncle]

A bit like America, it'll be heard differently in different locations. It gets zero traction in Victoria, where people simply recoil, but at home in Queensland, it's exactly what the CWA wants to hear.

This is where the electoral maths will come in... ALP could campaign against Dutton as "from the Trump side of politics" and try and push a comparison, but they'll risk too many votes in rural and outer suburban areas that might see that as a good thing. So they won't push it, and Dutton will get to run with it unchecked.

The Teals and Greens will make the case because they've got more freedom to do so, and the media will use that to spin them as fringe-dwelling lefties.


So while the independents might continue to cash in, the next government will be the one that can convince rural and outer suburban Qld/WA/NSW/Tas that they offer something to those voters that the other side doesn't.

 

[peetoo]

This is where the electoral maths will come in... ALP could campaign against Dutton as "from the Trump side of politics" and try and push a comparison, but they'll risk too many votes in rural and outer suburban areas that might see that as a good thing. So they won't push it, and Dutton will get to run with it unchecked.

The Teals and Greens will make the case because they've got more freedom to do so, and the media will use that to spin them as fringe-dwelling lefties.


So while the independents might continue to cash in, the next government will be the one that can convince rural and outer suburban Qld/WA/NSW/Tas that they offer something to those voters that the other side doesn't.

labor just holds its line. Liberals policy hypocrisy between its oute suburbs and inner suburbs was always there, but the teal inclusions have made that very stark

 

[Saint]

This is where the electoral maths will come in... ALP could campaign against Dutton as "from the Trump side of politics" and try and push a comparison, but they'll risk too many votes in rural and outer suburban areas that might see that as a good thing. So they won't push it, and Dutton will get to run with it unchecked.

The Teals and Greens will make the case because they've got more freedom to do so, and the media will use that to spin them as fringe-dwelling lefties.


So while the independents might continue to cash in, the next government will be the one that can convince rural and outer suburban Qld/WA/NSW/Tas that they offer something to those voters that the other side doesn't.

Which is why it needs to be minority. If it's just the ALP again, it'll be the same centrist inertia, the marginalised will continue to lose out and look for somebody to blame. Centrism is fine for maybe winning an election, but doing nothing due to centrist inertia will push people either to the left or the right (a bit of both).

Centrists never get anything done. Seems like they're only ever in it for themselves.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Which is why it needs to be minority. If it's just the ALP again, it'll be the same centrist inertia, the marginalised will continue to lose out and look for somebody to blame. Centrism is fine for maybe winning an election, but doing nothing due to centrist inertia will push people either to the left or the right (a bit of both).

Centrists never get anything done. Seems like they're only ever in it for themselves.

I think this is where "centrism" as a tag becomes a bit of a disservice to what centrism is really about. The Teals probably sit as "centrists" by most definitions, but if the next government ends up as minority ALP (or LNP) with independent support, those "centrists" will function to create inertia on the key issues they've taken to the electorate (climate action, government transparency, etc.) while holding a more conservative line on other issues.

I think in that sense, centrism can be fine as a pragmatic solution to moving us all forward.



When I don't think centrism works is in the absence of opposing ideologies either side of it within the government... so when a major like the ALP pushes too far into the centre, it causes problems.

 

[Saint]

I think this is where "centrism" as a tag becomes a bit of a disservice to what centrism is really about. The Teals probably sit as "centrists" by most definitions, but if the next government ends up as minority ALP (or LNP) with independent support, those "centrists" will function to create inertia on the key issues they've taken to the electorate (climate action, government transparency, etc.) while holding a more conservative line on other issues.

I think in that sense, centrism can be fine as a pragmatic solution to moving us all forward.



When I don't think centrism works is in the absence of opposing ideologies either side of it within the government... so when a major like the ALP pushes too far into the centre, it causes problems.

The centrism I'm referring to is the type where you try to please everyone on both sides in the middle but end up pleasing nobody. Centrism and inertia are friends of the conservative movement.

 

[JackOutback]

labor just holds its line. Liberals policy hypocrisy between its oute suburbs and inner suburbs was always there, but the teal inclusions have made that very stark

Labor need to make sure it’s called out, though, and the media won’t help. Trump got away with telling Muslims in swing states he’d be better for them than Biden, while cozying up to Netanyahu and Israel elsewhere. Those of us politically engaged knew he was full of shit but plenty didn’t and gave him the edge.

 

[QuietB]

Labor need to make sure it’s called out, though, and the media won’t help. Trump got away with telling Muslims in swing states he’d be better for them than Biden, while cozying up to Netanyahu and Israel elsewhere. Those of us politically engaged knew he was full of shit but plenty didn’t and gave him the edge.

But it will keep coming back to one thing - Dutton does not have and never will have the cult of personality that Trump has.

Labor's strategy should be dead simple;

1. Ask what the Liberals have ever done - which is nothing
2. Play back the Liberals own words to them - water lapping at the door, anchor babies, any of Dutton's racist rants, etc. - to emphasise who the Liberals are.

They are unelectable.

 

[Gavin Excell]

For every messianic quote that Trump makes and every Nazi salute Musk throws up, you've gotta think at least a percentage point will come off of Dutton's personal popularity in WA, SA, the ACT and Victoria.

At least the closer we get to an election.

These buffoons are overegging it, particularly adopting the Trumpian sounding slogan "get Australia back on track". The longer the public have to take in the American disaster, I think the more they will recoil. Such is the nature of a globalised media. Add in improving economic fundamentals and I'm not sure being a bully and a blowhard wannabe strongman is going to resonate.

It's likely Trump will have a honeymoon period though as is common for most administrations ans Dutton will eye how the culture wars stuff is being received.

Timing will I think work well for him

 

[Saint]

Labor need to make sure it’s called out, though, and the media won’t help. Trump got away with telling Muslims in swing states he’d be better for them than Biden, while cozying up to Netanyahu and Israel elsewhere. Those of us politically engaged knew he was full of shit but plenty didn’t and gave him the edge.

It helped that Biden was supporting Genocide. In Dutton's case, he's the one supporting the genocide, so he doesn't have the advantage Trump had.

 

[Saint]

It's likely Trump will have a honeymoon period though as is common for most administrations ans Dutton will eye how the culture wars stuff is being received.

Timing will I think work well for him

If the tariffs go ahead on Feb 1st as Trump just announced, they'll impact here very soon after. The problem for Dutton is that Trump isn't going to do your average Neo-con stuff. He's going to do all sorts of stupid obviously racist stuff. It will expose Dutton more than provide cover for him.

 

[RedStarUncle]

It's likely Trump will have a honeymoon period though as is common for most administrations ans Dutton will eye how the culture wars stuff is being received.

Timing will I think work well for him

Trump popularity polling, following a pretty huge positive bounce after he won the election, have already started going back the other way.

It's early days and they might start improving again... but also it's possible that the honeymoon is already over (in terms of opinion polling). So timing might end up working against not for Dutton.

 

[RedStarUncle]

But it will keep coming back to one thing - Dutton does not have and never will have the cult of personality that Trump has.

Labor's strategy should be dead simple;

1. Ask what the Liberals have ever done - which is nothing
2. Play back the Liberals own words to them - water lapping at the door, anchor babies, any of Dutton's racist rants, etc. - to emphasise who the Liberals are.

They are unelectable.

For the average engaged punter... you probably already thought Dutton was or wasn't electable before he even became opposition leader.

The approval numbers for Dutton and how the shifted between 2022 and now suggest that, somehow, he has achieved the job of being perceived as electable. So I think the sort of negative campaign based on "Liberals own words" now comes with a bit of risk for the ALP. Dutton already talks about the "hysterical rants" and I think that line could gain traction in the areas that matter.


So what was looking 2 years ago look a procession to a second term for the ALP... I just think now looks competitive. Dutton has made himself electable, and the ALP have made some mis-steps. If I were an ALP strategist, I'd be pretty keen to think I was doing something active to either hold the WA seats that were surprise wins, or turn some other seats red in case those revert to blue. From a WA point of view... I think Albo has pretty poor approval but apparently Dutton has some of his lowest personal figures over here too... which adds an interesting element to strategy.

 

[QuietB]

For the average engaged punter... you probably already thought Dutton was or wasn't electable before he even became opposition leader.

The approval numbers for Dutton and how the shifted between 2022 and now suggest that, somehow, he has achieved the job of being perceived as electable. So I think the sort of negative campaign based on "Liberals own words" now comes with a bit of risk for the ALP. Dutton already talks about the "hysterical rants" and I think that line could gain traction in the areas that matter.


So what was looking 2 years ago look a procession to a second term for the ALP... I just think now looks competitive. Dutton has made himself electable, and the ALP have made some mis-steps. If I were an ALP strategist, I'd be pretty keen to think I was doing something active to either hold the WA seats that were surprise wins, or turn some other seats red in case those revert to blue. From a WA point of view... I think Albo has pretty poor approval but apparently Dutton has some of his lowest personal figures over here too... which adds an interesting element to strategy.

Dutton has had a free ride in the media until now. Liberal radio, Liberal newspapers, Liberal Sky News bashing the government daily for no real reason other than they want"their guys" in.

In an election campaign Dutton has to front up. And he will do Dutton things like always.

All Liberal gains in the polls have been on the back of Labor bad press. Dutton is not responsible for any gains the Liberals might have achieved.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Dutton has had a free ride in the media until now. Liberal radio, Liberal newspapers, Liberal Sky News bashing the government daily for no real reason other than they want"their guys" in.

In an election campaign Dutton has to front up. And he will do Dutton things like always.

All Liberal gains in the polls have been on the back of Labor bad press. Dutton is not responsible for any gains the Liberals might have achieved.

I don't disagree with any of that... but the fact is, the gains in the polls have been made (both for LNP and Dutton's personal approvals). Maybe when he fronts up during a national campaign, everyone will remember why they haven't liked him for as long as he's been in the public eye. If I was the ALP though... I wouldn't be relying on it. I'd be treating it as a competitive election where I need to minimise losses back to Libs in WA and outer-suburban NSW, and try and counter those with some gains in Qld.

So it'll be another election targeted at suburban NSW, Qld, and WA just like the last 2. Both sides will continue to lose inner-city voters to Greens or Teals as they chase those competitive areas. LNP has the disadvantage of probably needing to claw something back from the Teals as well as chase NSW and WA but conversely has a pretty solid advantage in Qld that'll be hard for ALP to crack.

 

[GreyWind]

It's going to be interesting watching Dutton on the campaign trail trying to sell his nuclear policy to the public. It's not popular, it's a poor policy, it's not costed and Dutton has the personality of a wet paper bag.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The centrism I'm referring to is the type where you try to please everyone on both sides in the middle but end up pleasing nobody. Centrism and inertia are friends of the conservative movement.

Precisely. Not only do I hope to see a Labor minority government because it will almost certainly be forced to be a little more progressive, it'll also be forced to be a little more effing proactive and reformist in general.

 

[RedStarUncle]

It's going to be interesting watching Dutton on the campaign trail trying to sell his nuclear policy to the public. It's not popular, it's a poor policy, it's not costed and Dutton has the personality of a wet paper bag.

That's why it was all done last year... it's not about selling it now, it's just an answer for when he's asked about climate action.

- Climate action questions will be met with, "We've made our plan to deliver clean nuclear energy available to everyone" ignoring the fact that it's not clear and barely a plan.
- Energy policy questions will be met with, "It's up to the Australian people to decide which party they trust to deliver lower costs and less spending" leaning on the better-economic-managers trope.
- Further pressing will be met with, "Australians will decide on those matters in the election booth and they'll also decide on who they trust to [insert relevant attack point against Labor that suits the particular audience."


And that'll all work. And it'll mitigate lack of climate action as a reason to vote against LNP, without upsetting the climate change deniers. So like it or not... they've played their cards well here in terms of election strategy.

Labor can't go after them without either getting bogged down in details on energy pricing (and bogged down in details is a guaranteed path to a lost election)... enough of the electorate believe either nuclear is cheaper or at the very least that it's a grey area and not worth basing their vote on.


As things stand, LNP has taken control of the narrative very effectively, and it's sitting with the ALP to do something to take it back.

 

[GreyWind]

That's why it was all done last year... it's not about selling it now, it's just an answer for when he's asked about climate action.

- Climate action questions will be met with, "We've made our plan to deliver clean nuclear energy available to everyone" ignoring the fact that it's not clear and barely a plan.
- Energy policy questions will be met with, "It's up to the Australian people to decide which party they trust to deliver lower costs and less spending" leaning on the better-economic-managers trope.
- Further pressing will be met with, "Australians will decide on those matters in the election booth and they'll also decide on who they trust to [insert relevant attack point against Labor that suits the particular audience."


And that'll all work. And it'll mitigate lack of climate action as a reason to vote against LNP, without upsetting the climate change deniers. So like it or not... they've played their cards well here in terms of election strategy.

Labor can't go after them without either getting bogged down in details on energy pricing (and bogged down in details is a guaranteed path to a lost election)... enough of the electorate believe either nuclear is cheaper or at the very least that it's a grey area and not worth basing their vote on.


As things stand, LNP has taken control of the narrative very effectively, and it's sitting with the ALP to do something to take it back.

I agree on basically all of that.

I disagree that Labor can't attack them on it though. There's a massive scare campaign to be had on nuclear that Labor will launch. Nothing on policy or energy pricing. They'll attack the reactors and especially waste.

 

[winty]

 

[peetoo]

That's why it was all done last year... it's not about selling it now, it's just an answer for when he's asked about climate action.

- Climate action questions will be met with, "We've made our plan to deliver clean nuclear energy available to everyone" ignoring the fact that it's not clear and barely a plan.
- Energy policy questions will be met with, "It's up to the Australian people to decide which party they trust to deliver lower costs and less spending" leaning on the better-economic-managers trope.
- Further pressing will be met with, "Australians will decide on those matters in the election booth and they'll also decide on who they trust to [insert relevant attack point against Labor that suits the particular audience."


And that'll all work. And it'll mitigate lack of climate action as a reason to vote against LNP, without upsetting the climate change deniers. So like it or not... they've played their cards well here in terms of election strategy.

Labor can't go after them without either getting bogged down in details on energy pricing (and bogged down in details is a guaranteed path to a lost election)... enough of the electorate believe either nuclear is cheaper or at the very least that it's a grey area and not worth basing their vote on.


As things stand, LNP has taken control of the narrative very effectively, and it's sitting with the ALP to do something to take it back.

Just repeat that the coalitions energy plan is to continue to have no plan. Someting 4-5 governments away? I thought Dutton said he needs to save australia from labor THIS ELECTION

 

[winty]

It's going to be interesting watching Dutton on the campaign trail trying to sell his nuclear policy to the public. It's not popular, it's a poor policy, it's not costed and Dutton has the personality of a wet paper bag.

I saw a couple of clips of him on X yesterday saying Albo needed to come clean with details about how renewables will be viable going forward. Of course none of the media assembled dared to say the hypocrite needed to do the same about his nuclear policy.

 

[peetoo]

I saw a couple of clips of him on X yesterday saying Albo needed to come clean with details about how renewables will be viable going forward. Of course none of the media assembled dared to say the hypocrite needed to do the same about his nuclear policy.

We can see viable renewables in action right now. It’s not theoretical