Expansion When does the Gold Coast's premiership window open?

[Tas]

Please dont say this. You'll put the mocker on us like every one did before the 2013 season when they said we had passed them already. We are a ways behind them and only some hard work will improve this.

Nah, it is not like that. I expected GWS to struggle this year as well. Both GC and GWS didn't invest a lot in mature aged players on inception so it is always a tough ask to have boys compete against men, consistently at least.

I just feel that GWS has invested heavily in KPFs, but has still accumulated some good midfielders as well. If Patton and Boyd come good, along with Cameron that is going to be a scary forward line.

However, KPP take a lot more time to develop, which is why I think GWS wont rise up as quickly as GC. That and Scully is no Ablett.

I think the next 2 or 3 years will be a bit lean but you will probably find the club starts investing heavily on more midfield talent over the next few years. Will just need to be a bit patient with this squad I think.

 

[Silvagnis]

One of the questions is if they risk a *cough* like disaster by shopping one of their midfielders for a KPF.

Shop Bennell if he doesn't harden up. Lazy and soft as butter against Armfield and Yarran who beat him one on one to produce goals. Needs to step up like Chris Yarran, Daniel Rich and Stephen Hill.

Draft a hard mid or a KPP to go with Lynch, Day, Thompson, May, Dixon, etc.

 

[Richo83]

Shop Bennell if he doesn't harden up. Lazy and soft as butter against Armfield and Yarran who beat him one on one to produce goals. Needs to step up like Chris Yarran, Daniel Rich and Stephen Hill.

This post is all kinds of dumb. Bennell is already better than Yarran, and he aint soft.

 

[Prem87]

Play Bock at FF and they'll go close.

They lack a solid spine to go all the way. Need a gun defender and CHF/FF.

 

[wally funk]

Should start opening in 2015 if they keep improving at the rate they seemed to this year, but if they don't get one by 2018 (perhaps 2019 at the latest) then this lot will have missed their chance, I'd reckon.

 

[Freomaniac]

Its hard to say...

Going by the other teams on how they started....Crows and Port Played finals in their 3rd year, West Coast played finals in their 2nd. Swans moved to NSW in 1982 and didnt play finals until 1986. Brisbane and Freo played their 1st final in their 9th year and that was due to bad organisation in their early years.

My gut Feeling is that Gold Coast will get another 6-9 wins in 2014. When the 2014 season finishes, the Suns will have a lot of 21-23 year olds with 60-80 games under the belts and the additional free agent. So 2015 at the earliest is when they can make finals.

 

[Bosk]

Next year could be their first year of finals. The year after they'd be almost certain to make it, perhaps even win a final or two. The year after you'd think their window would open if they finish top 4 AND have some finals experience under their belt, but I think its more likely they will need to play in and lose a prelim and/or GF before winning a premiership. Especially since the vast bulk of their club has no finals experience whatsoever.

The bad news for the rest of the comp is that once they get a taste of September success they're likely to be contending for many many years to come.

 

[Bosk]

Hard to say, when Ablett is your leading goal kicker on 28 you still have a lot of issues to address up forward and just lost their third highest goal kicker of this year in Brown. I think it is a positive that the mids are goal kicking mids but that forward line needs to produce a lot more to be able to win consistently.

I think its more a case of smaller players usually developing faster than talls, mostly because having the strength to hold your ground in a marking contest isn't as important to a midfielder nor is being able to kick straight under pressure when you have lots of time to think about it.

I'm inclined to cut GC's young forwards some slack, clearly they have a long way to go to develop into mature bodies.
GWS may be looking better up front (Cameron/Patton/Boyd) its true, and Cameron certainly has matured awfully fast, but this really has no bearing on GC forwards' long term prospects.

 

[Sunners]

I think starting in 2016. Full credit to them for their improvement last year but they mainly beat teams below them. 6 of their 8 wins were against the bottom 4 teams (4 of them against GWS & Melbourne). They will improve this year but won't make the 8. Probably 10th or 11th. 2016-2020 will be their premiership window.

 

[MightyHawks]

I believe they'll play finals in 2014. The big test will be in 2015 when they don't get a soft as butter fixture

 

[Tas]

I think its more a case of smaller players usually developing faster than talls, mostly because having the strength to hold your ground in a marking contest isn't as important to a midfielder nor is being able to kick straight under pressure when you have lots of time to think about it.

I'm inclined to cut GC's young forwards some slack, clearly they have a long way to go to develop into mature bodies.
GWS may be looking better up front (Cameron/Patton/Boyd) its true, and Cameron certainly has matured awfully fast, but this really has no bearing on GC forwards' long term prospects.

I am not putting the foot into GC's young KPFs but they are not the same pedigree. GC invested heavily on midfielders, GWS has invested more on KPPs.

GC just aren't producing the numbers up forward or have obvious KPF talent developing which would suggest the team is approaching a successful period. I am not saying they don't have the talent, just that you need something there to herald the dawn of an approaching era.

Even WCE during the Judd/Cousins/Kerr/Cox midfield era had KPP who were producing the numbers, they weren't the best going around but they were getting the job done. I believe even with a very good midfield you still need a capable forward line, if you are relying on your mids to kick most of your score consistently then I think you will be up and down a lot.

But, who knows, some young GC KPP could start to extract the digit in 2014, I am not trying to crystal ball, just saying I have yet to see some of the signs I think are important for taking the next step.

 

[Franc de Borges]

It's much easier to go from awful to ok than it is from ok to excellent.

They have the potential but there are no guarantees in this game.

 

[juss]

Not too sure but Metricon will become a Geelong like fortress within a couple of years. Will be incredibly difficult to best them there.

 

[jko'neal]

I'm guessing 2016, gotta show some big improvement next season though. The amount of benefits and young stars injected into that club has to start showing some major improvement sooner rather than later.

 

[Matchu]

Not too sure but Metricon will become a Geelong like fortress within a couple of years. Will be incredibly difficult to best them there.

They are already winning over 50% of their matches at Metricon. Admittedly, their wins came against St Kilda, Bulldogs, North, Collingwood, Melbourne and GWS but they are definitely building. It'll be a brutal venue to play an away final at.

 

[juss]

They are already winning over 50% of their matches at Metricon. Admittedly, their wins came against St Kilda, Bulldogs, North, Collingwood, Melbourne and GWS but they are definitely building. It'll be a brutal venue to play an away final at.

The other teams not so much but for a young team beating those two is a pretty good effort. We have them there in round 1, it's a genuine 50/50 game at Metricon.

 

[MaddAdam]

The other teams not so much but for a young team beating those two is a pretty good effort. We have them there in round 1, it's a genuine 50/50 game at Metricon.

Better than you playing them at Cairns, where statiscally, you have no hope.

 

[juss]

Better than you playing them at Cairns, where statiscally, you have no hope.

I think we beat them in Cairns this year and although I'd rather play them at Metricon than Cairns, it'll still be a tough game.

I always feel discussing future premiership windows is just pointless, predicting for the next year is tough enough, but anything further is just blind speculation. In 2015 any side could finish top 4, things change that quickly.

In regards to GC in 2014 though, I don't think they are ready for finals football yet, will win 8-10 games, knock off a few good teams, give a few other good ones a scare, but as young teams do they will drop winnable games and won't be able to play enough 4 quarter efforts over a full season to make the 8. There are a few too many other teams a year or so ahead in development for them this year. They could make the finals, it's certainly not unheard of and they are a better chance than a few sides, but they'd be an outside chance in my books.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

I don't think it will for them.

Not enough quality key forwards; at some stage GAblett will start declining or decide to head back to Catland; and eventually some of the young talent may decide to head elsewhere too.

Expect GWS, with their better KPPs, COLA and ambassadorial payments, will win a flag before the Suns.

 

[Matchu]

I don't think it will for them.

Not enough quality key forwards; at some stage GAblett will start declining or decide to head back to Catland; and eventually some of the young talent may decide to head elsewhere too.

Expect GWS, with their better KPPs, COLA and ambassadorial payments, will win a flag before the Suns.

Big call. Although I agree GWS have the better KPPs, the Suns have plenty of talent all over the ground. Watch their KPPs come on in the next two years and I'm sure you'll change your opinion.

 

[Superstar swan]

2015 I expect them to really become a top club. Players like bennell, omeara , Martin , prestia, swallow will be experienced established afl players by then, plus Ablett will probably spend most of his time forward and kick 60 goals a year. They are not too far off in my opinion

 

[Superstar swan]

In terms of where their quality on the ground is Gold Coast remind me of West Coast in 2006. A brilliant midfield and really good defence but rather poor when it comes to key position forwards.

That is probably the one area they need to improve, they have sam day but he really hasn't shown a lot to indicate he's the man to carry their forward line

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Geelong denied him the captaincy, and the questions floated around if he was merely a good player in a good side, and could he carry a team by himself ?

He has now answered them, and I think it's fair to say 'Senior was the better player, but if you want a permiership, you want Junior'.

God bless Ablett, but by the time Harley retired, he had shown absolutely nothing to suggest that he should be the next skipper, ahead of Ling, or even the next in line, ahead of Selwood. He used to do things like leave senior games at halftime, when he was injured and watching from the stands.

Like you said, he's answered all the questions, better than the vast majority of us could have ever managed and I wish him nothing but the best. But to give him the captaincy in 2010, on the evidence available at the time, would have brought back memories of the dubious (disastrous) appointments of 'the best player' captains, like Hocking and Ablett Sr. Gold Coast had no-one options, or even anyone close, and he has been absolutely sensational for them. But Geelong had one who was clearly a better option, one who looked like he would be for the next five years and up to half a dozen who looked like they'd be at least as good as Ablett (and probably better), as captaincy options.

As for the Suns' window, well I reckon it would want to be 2015 and 2016 at the absolute latest. Because otherwise, they might have an issue with keeping GAJ for his final 2-3 seasons in the league.

 

[dajesmac]

History shows that improvement in a young players career is rarely linear. Some will stagnate, some will take a step or two back. Wait until they're 24+.

 

[My North]

Gold Coast premiership window open now 2014