Finals predictions

[luthor]

We will get a pretty good idea this week against Essendon.We should dominate this game.If not we are not in the frame of mind to do any damage in teh finals.

I don't care about domination.

Just kick even reasonably straight and get the win

Then we will have two weeks to get our minds (and bodies) in shape

 

[McIvor]

Any update on Berry ? He's crucial.

Lions midfielder Jarrod Berry, who injured his hamstring in the loss to the Magpies, trained lightly on Tuesday, with a decision still to be made on whether he plays on Saturday night.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/brisbane-lions-intent-on-finding-form-and-composure-ahead-of-afl-finals-series/news-story/b0b4f64b2bf85b289656996ceee470a2

 

[McIvor]

‘Deflated’ Brisbane Lions intent on bouncing back against Essendon​

Lions veteran Dayne Zorko

15

Dayne Zorko

Age

35

Ht

175cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

6.0

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

14.0

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

5.0

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

6.6

5star

CL

1.2

4star

admits it will be “difficult” for Brisbane to win the AFL premiership from outside the top four but is confident the feat can be achieved in a “strange” season.
Back-to-back losses have left the Lions facing the likelihood of finishing in the bottom half of the top eight and needing four successive wins in the finals series to secure the club’s first flag since 2003.

A fourth-placed finish remains a possibility; however, the Lions would need to not only beat Essendon on Saturday night at the Gabba but also rely on the battling West Coast upsetting Geelong at GMHBA Stadium.

Even if Brisbane lost to Essendon, the Lions’ healthy percentage should ensure that they wouldn’t fall out of the top eight.

However, not since 2016, when the Western Bulldogs won the premiership after finishing the regular season in seventh place, has a non top-four team clinched the flag.

“It’s going to be difficult but we saw last year, Carlton and GWS, they got to preliminary finals (after finishing outside the top four), and (the Giants) took it right up to Collingwood, and Carlton took it right up to us in the preliminary final, so it can be done,” Zorko told SENQ’s Pat and Heals Breakfast show.

“Finals is a different ball game once again. It’s a strange year. I think history’s going to be defied this year, and hopefully it’s us that can do it.”

The Lions blew the chance to jump back into the top four on the weekend when they gave up a 17-point lead late in the final quarter against Collingwood to lose by one point at the MCG.

Had they held on, they would have finished the round in fourth spot after Geelong suffered a surprise loss to St. Kilda.

“To let it slip like that is extremely disappointing given we did get a few results go our way over the weekend, but that’s the season it is,” Zorko said. “Our season’s still alive. We get another opportunity this weekend to continue to move up the ladder as high as we possibly can, and we’ll be looking to do that and bounce back.”

The Lions again paid a price for some inaccurate goalkicking in their narrow loss on Saturday. “The boys don’t miss on purpose,” Zorko said. “Everyone makes mistakes throughout the game – it’s how quickly you can move on and not let it deflate you. “We probably got a little bit deflated on the weekend unfortunately and allowed Collingwood to get back into the game. “We’re getting the job done in bits and pieces throughout the game but we need to lock it in for four quarters.”

Zorko said there were no concerns with a slight ankle injury he suffered against the Magpies.

However, the Lions will be sweating on the fitness of midfielder Jarrod Berry

7

Jarrod Berry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

8.9

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.1

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

10.6

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

6.2

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.8

3star

, who failed to finish the match after suffering a hamstring injury.

Forward Lincoln McCarthy

11

Lincoln Mccarthy

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.1

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.3

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

, who is on Brisbane’s long-term injury list after rupturing the anterior cruciate ligament in his knee in May, has signed a one-year contract extension that will keep him with Brisbane until at least the end of next season.

“The body was feeling really good before my knee injury and I’m confident I can come back better with this amazing club and group of people who have given me so much.” the 30-year-old South Australian said.

 

[RU_]

I just want to beat another club than Melbourne at the G in the last 11 years!!

How bad are Melbourne though to lose to us not once, but twice at the G!

 

[M Malice]

I think it all gets back to the health of our list.

Mental scars aren't an issue if you can get on a roll. It's more that we've failed in pressure situations probably more than we should have so is that because we're not quite good enough and/or don't handle those situations particularly well ? If it's the former then we're not quite good enough, if it's the latter then that's the mental battle win have to win ,which is doable.

I'm more concerned with whether we're a bit tired and spent with too many injured . Any update on Berry ? He's crucial.

On the bolded, that could be it, a lot of people say we have the best team "on paper" in the AFL but maybe it is as simple as we aren't the best, maybe we are overachievers with the list we have. The health of your list come September is a massive factor in who the eventual Premiers are.

Give Berry the extra week off, he should then be 100% for the first final.

 

[braddsey]

On the bolded, that could be it, a lot of people say we have the best team "on paper" in the AFL but maybe it is as simple as we aren't the best, maybe we are overachievers with the list we have. The health of your list come September is a massive factor in who the eventual Premiers are.

Give Berry the extra week off, he should then be 100% for the first final.

The season's not over yet so we can still go forward to prove everyone we are the best list when we get it all together.

That said, I think this season again shows how important it is to bank wins early. It's got to be much easier to get through the backend of the season without every match having incredible meaning to it. Sydney are obviously the poster-club for this, but also Geelong. Both clubs had a strong start, they were able to have a mid-late season slump, and then stabilise. Sydney are still the best team in it on their day, Geelong are not.
We've been playing catchup the entire second half the season and did an amazing job... but perhaps the mental battle to stay up did become too much. Like when a team chases all day, finally gets a point in front and relaxes a bit "phew, we made it" and then goes on to lose the match.

I think we should still expect to make a PF. The question then becomes if we've had 2 bruising battles to get there, are we capable coming up against a team that has played 1 game in 3 weeks.
or... does Fagan's claim from early attempts to reach a GF come true... teams that play 1 game in 3 weeks... do they lose a little bit of form against other good teams? we can only hope so!

 

[Sproj]

I reckon we're primed. If we can avoid Hawthorn until the GF, we can make it back there. I still think we will win it.

 

[braddsey]

I reckon we're primed. If we can avoid Hawthorn until the GF, we can make it back there. I still think we will win it.

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

I'd add Bruce & potentially Dev in finals.

 

[braddsey]

I'd add Bruce & potentially Dev in finals.

Definitely Bruce. We know Dev is a competitor, but there's got to be a reason he hasn't been selected all season.

Will be interesting to see how Morris holds up through 4 weeks. He's been great for a first year player, but makes me a little nervous if he can sustain through a finals campaign.

 

[Gadzorks]

Are you really going to take much from this game though.

I personally think the damage is already done and nothing from this game will change my mind.

Perhaps it might if we won our home final and then the next away game and we are in good shape but geez thats a lot of water to go under the bridge if we even get the far down.

This year had shown we can do anything from lose badly. Win majestically, be accurate, be inaccurate, control the game, be controlled etc. Basically anything goes.

Don't think we can take anything from any game, just have to accept that every game is independent of the last one.

Bit like Joe's kicking, can and is often both brilliant and awful in the same game.

I think going out in the first elimination is just a likely as winning the grand final. Only one thing is certain, the last game and the final series are going to be tough on supporter nerves.

 

[Sproj]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

If Payne and Hippy are fit, massive bonus but the reality is, it is all on the goal kicking accuracy. If we can somehow fix that, we win it all. And that is the biggest of all ifs unfortunately.

 

[Ceebee]

Definitely Bruce. We know Dev is a competitor, but there's got to be a reason he hasn't been selected all season.

Will be interesting to see how Morris holds up through 4 weeks. He's been great for a first year player, but makes me a little nervous if he can sustain through a finals campaign.

Be asking a lot of him , going to be a great player for us long term though .

 

[On the quiet]

I reckon 90-95% wrote us off after round 7 and the boys got themselves back into contention by pure guts and determination and talent and by fixing up the poor goal kicking.

We have now had 2 poor goal kicking weeks similar to the start of the year and 90-95% have written us off again.

Time will tell how we respond, but I will back them in for now.
And personally think our best football is as good as anyone’s.

I too think our best is right up there, but we rarely sustain it for 4Q's, we are just not consistent enough, and some of our goal kicking...well it has been said by others.

Our form may have been a bit misleading, From R8 to R21 (bye in R12) we played 13 games and 9 were against teams currently out of the top 8. We had a comfortable win against the Dogs and flogged Port back in June, but it's now the end of August, so don't believe that form is relevant.

After the R7 loss to GWS, I had Lions not making the 8 or just sneaking in 7th or 8th so have done better than I thought. As mentioned by Browny last night, it is much harder for an interstate team to win it from the bottom 8, unlike a Melbourne team which may have a couple of Melbourne finals.

 

[On the quiet]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

if any doubt on Berry, rest him, especially with the Bye the following week.

 

[Dalions]

I too think our best is right up there, but we rarely sustain it for 4Q's, we are just not consistent enough, and some of our goal kicking...well it has been said by others.

Our form may have been a bit misleading, From R8 to R21 (bye in R12) we played 13 games and 9 were against teams currently out of the top 8. We had a comfortable win against the Dogs and flogged Port back in June, but it's now the end of August, so don't believe that form is relevant.

After the R7 loss to GWS, I had Lions not making the 8 or just sneaking in 7th or 8th so have done better than I thought. As mentioned by Browny last night, it is much harder for an interstate team to win it from the bottom 8, unlike a Melbourne team which may have a couple of Melbourne finals.

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

 

[Section 5]

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

I think we tend to try and shut down game before we should.
Not talking about just in the last quarter.
We tend to do this at varying times of a game when we are the dominant team

 

[braddsey]

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

I think we did get better at it for a while. Our close-ish wins since the bye:

• 20 points over the Saints
• 5 points over Melbourne
• 11 points over Adelaide
• 13 points over West Coast (in the sacked coach bounce game)
• 2 points over the Swans

We also got better at not conceding goals in red-time.

We've slipped badly the last 2 weeks. Hopefully these last 2 weeks are a "slap in the face" wake up for players that may have got a bit slack in attention to detail at the end of the quarter/match. Absolutely needs to be a focus in training over the next 3 weeks.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I think we tend to try and shut down game before we should.
Not talking about just in the last quarter.
We tend to do this at varying times of a game when we are the dominant team

Well that certainly did not happen on Saturday. The tactics from both teams in the closing minutes could not have been more diametrically opposed.

 

[martinson]

Well that certainly did not happen on Saturday. The tactics from both teams in the closing minutes could not have been more diametrically opposed.

We were mentally and physically tired in my view. The mental letdown after not beating the Giants was never more evident than the last 3 minutes on Saturday where we never had any hope of clearing the ball out of congestion and really looked beaten once the Pies hit the front. Just resigned to it.

I know we've copped a lot of criticism and I'm one of the critics but hopefully we've gotten that out of our system.

Just in passing some people have sent me the Lloyd/Montagna/Kingy clips with the vision having a laugh at how inept we are and as if that was what was happening all through the game. Amazing how the media can create a narrative and if you have no involvement you tend to believe that's the whole story.

We have to shake that perception off over the next few weeks if we can get further than the next 2.

 

[Grasshopper17]

We were mentally and physically tired in my view.

Fact of the matter is we are poor in red time (the end of quarters), last quarters (the end of games), and I don't think you can say we've been in particularly hot form at the back end of seasons either.

I think you are on the money, but on the evidence presented I'm equally certain that the latter leads to the former...

 

[martinson]

Fact of the matter is we are poor in red time (the end of quarters), last quarters (the end of games), and I don't think you can say we've been in particularly hot form at the back end of seasons either.

I think you are on the money, but on the evidence presented I'm equally certain that the latter leads to the former...

Oh look we do have to face what's staring us in the face.

We've been up for 5 or 6 years and what everyone was happy to put down to inexperience and learnings isn't washing anymore. Just talking to non Lions supporters the impression is that we're soft under pressure and don't handle pressure situations well.

We need to face up to the reasons and address them otherwise that will continue to be the narrative in the footy world. So we've still got the chance to do that this year.

 

[BigCat2]

In 2022, we got badly beaten by Demons in the last round, in fact had basically lost the game by quarter time, in the Zorko/Petty game.

After 1 week off, we beat Richmond in a high scoring affair, then beat Demons in one of our more recent memorable wins.

We've had to play catch up all season just to get to this point, and it's hard to maintain the rage over a prolonged period. In fact, we went 9-1 at one stage, and even now we're 8-2 over the last 10 weeks. Only the Giants have a better form than us in the same period.

Anything is still possible afte this.

 

[McIvor]

Excuse the ignorance, but ive seen a few say that if we were to finish fifth and win our elimination final, we’d likely play Geelong if they lose their final. Therefore, in what position would Cats need to finish after the end of this round’s matches and who would be their likely away opponent for them to hypothetically lose to then face Lions?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Excuse the ignorance, but ive seen a few say that if we were to finish fifth and win our elimination final, we’d likely play Geelong if they lose their final. Therefore, in what position would Cats need to finish after the end of this round’s matches and who would be their likely away opponent for them to hypothetically lose to then face Lions?

If we were to finish 5th, in order to face Geelong in a week 2 Semi Final, they would have to finish 4th.