Where would Caddy go in 2012

[josh the gent]

If Caddy decides he wants to come back to Melbourne and no deal can be arranged during trade week, my understanding is that it's possible he could end up in the 2012 National Draft.

Therefore, I think a massive component of the Caddy trade scenarios being thrown around BF at the moment, is to consider where you think Caddy would go in the 2012 draft. I'm sure it will be a part of any potential trade discussions during the actual trade week...

Quoting Knightmare's Power Rankings (I have removed O'Meara and Crouch as they cannot be drafted this year):

Power rankings 2012 (This represents where I rate players in this draft rather than where I expect them to land):
------------------Potential A-Graders--------------------
1. Joe Daniher (Ess – F/S)
2. Lachlan Whitfield
3. Jack Viney (Melb – F/S)
4. Brodie Grundy
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jimmy Toumpas
7. Lachlan Plowman
8. Jonothon O’Rourke
9. Jake Stringer
10. Nick Vlastuin
11. Dayle Garlett
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jed Anderson (GWS – likely NT Zone)
------------------Potentially high level AFL players--------------------
14. Troy Menzel
15. Ben Kennedy
16. Josh Simpson
17. Tom Lee
18. Kristian Jaksch
19. Tom Clurey
20. Mason Shaw

Where do you think he fits?

 

[Heppellicious]

If he comes to back to Victoria I remain very confident he will go to Essendon, however, I am led to believe the odds of him staying at GC are firming strongly.

 

[Varicho]

If he comes to back to Victoria I remain very confident he will go to Essendon, however, I am led to believe the odds of him staying at GC are firming strongly.

Not according to Greg Denham, he's convinced he'll tell GC this week he wants out.

 

[bombermick]

The odds of him leaving GC would be very short, but he certainly hasn't increased his ranking from draft day. He's clearly behind the top guys (Whitfield, Daniher etc) and I'd rather take a chance on Kennedy or Menzel going past him.

I'd say 10-12 in this draft ...

 

[Sunny_]

It would be the PSD he walks into, wouldn't it? Not the ND.

 

[Sunny_]

And if you are looking to trust the word of a journo (sketchy proposition on its own), Greg Denham is the last guy I would be listening to. Over the past 4-5 years, his yarns around the trade period have been amoungst the most inaccurate in the industry.

Not saying that Caddy won't go to Melbourne, but Denham's strike rate for these sorts of situations is very, very low. I would wager he's just reading the rumours and adding some more heat to it. The odds of him actually knowing something that others don't is extremely remote.

 

[Slattery_20]

It would be the PSD he walks into, wouldn't it? Not the ND.

You'd assume so - that would give him slightly more control over his destination.

Would be an interesting scenario for the AFL, would they apply the Chalmers rule?

 

[josh the gent]

It would be the PSD he walks into, wouldn't it? Not the ND.

That rule was changed in 2008, now players can nominate for either draft.

If he nominates for the National Draft and says he only wants to be drafted by a Melbourne based team, you could almost guarantee that none of the interstaters would bother with him (as there is a whole host of other talent available). If he goes PSD, you can bank on him getting selected by GWS, and he'll have the same prob as now...

An example of this is Luke Ball in 2009 - went pick 30 in the National Draft to Collingwood.

 

[vast]

That rule was changed in 2008, now players can nominate for either draft - so unless Caddy wants to get to GWS, you can bet he would nominate for the National Draft!

An example of this is Luke Ball in 2009, went pick 30 in the National Draft to Collingwood.

He wont walk if he leaves. He will request a trade.

 

[josh the gent]

I k

He wont walk if he leaves. He will request a trade.

If a trade doesn't get organised in trade week, i said.

 

[Slattery_20]

That rule was changed in 2008, now players can nominate for either draft.

If he nominates for the National Draft and says he only wants to be drafted by a Melbourne based team, you could almost guarantee that none of the interstaters would bother with him (as there is a whole host of other talent available). If he goes PSD, you can bank on him getting selected by GWS, and he'll have the same prob as now...

Why would GWS not want him in one draft, but want him a few months later? Daft as a brush.

PSD would, at least, give him *some* choice of employer since a lot of clubs will have filled up their lists.
Either way it won't work out in his favour - theoretically he's not allowed to specify (unlike Luke Ball, every club would want Caddy).

 

[coryne]

Why would GWS not want him in one draft, but want him a few months later? Daft as a brush.

PSD would, at least, give him *some* choice of employer since a lot of clubs will have filled up their lists.
Either way it won't work out in his favour - theoretically he's not allowed to specify (unlike Luke Ball, every club would want Caddy).

Because better players are available in the ND than the PSD ........... A PSD pick is basically your last ND pick polled over to another draft, with a different set of players who are generally older/recycled players/ kids overlooked due to a specific defeniency in their game that a club wants to to check out in further detail before committing to. You can't compare the two .........

 

[Slattery_20]

Because better players are available in the ND than the PSD ........... A PSD pick is basically your last ND pick polled over to another draft, with a different set of players who are generally older/recycled players/ kids overlooked due to a specific defeniency in their game that a club wants to to check out in further detail before committing to. You can't compare the two .........

Yeah and I accept that for your Kyle Hardinghams/Barlows/Cam Bruces... but he's just ever so slightly different, he is highly sought after... you're comparing blue chip stocks to shares in OneTel.

Anyone who seriously thinks any club would pass him over in the main draft (after the first ~10 picks, anyway) is certifiable.

 

[coryne]

Yeah and I accept that for your Kyle Hardinghams/Barlows/Cam Bruces... but he's just ever so slightly different, he is highly sought after... you're comparing blue chip stocks to shares in OneTel.

Anyone who seriously thinks any club would pass him over in the main draft (after the first ~10 picks, anyway) is certifiable.

Which is why you would only be comparing the 1st rd of the ND and the 1st rd of the PSD ...............

GWS wouldn't take him in the 1st rd of the ND, but would in the 1st rd of the PSD
Carlton would take him in the 1st rd of the ND but he wouldn't be available to us in the 1st rd of the PSD

 

[Scotty_222]

if the trade happens.. richmond has the better draft picks to get the deal done

 

[Slattery_20]

Which is why you would only be comparing the 1st rd of the ND and the 1st rd of the PSD ...............

GWS wouldn't take him in the 1st rd of the ND, but would in the 1st rd of the PSD
Carlton would take him in the 1st rd of the ND but he wouldn't be available to us in the 1st rd of the PSD

Umm, what? Why? What odd tangent are we going off on, here?
I ask again... why would GWS not want him in the main draft, then suddenly decide they want him a bit later?

They're still going to take picks after the 1st round - any club would want him, and have no issue taking him as soon as they could in the 2nd/3rd round.
PSD will give him SOME small amount of choice, but only because a lot of clubs will have filled up their lists and not take a pick at all.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Umm, what? Why? What odd tangent are we going off on, here?
I ask again... why would GWS not want him in the main draft, then suddenly decide they want him a bit later?

They're still going to take picks after the 1st round - any club would want him, and have no issue taking him as soon as they could in the 2nd/3rd round.
PSD will give him SOME small amount of choice, but only because a lot of clubs will have filled up their lists and not take a pick at all.

It's not about not wanting him, it's about what is a price you're prepared to spend on a bloke who doesn't want to be there. Big difference in cost between pick 5 in the ND and pick 5 in the PSD, the latter isn't worth as much.

You are right to say beyond pick 10 though most clubs would pick him, but if he wants to try and get to a particular club, he would be better off going into the ND with a big price on his head, and maybe, just maybe, he gets to say pick 15 or so (assuming the desired club has that pick). In the PSD he wouldn't last beyond the first couple of picks, if that.

 

[josh the gent]

Umm, what? Why? What odd tangent are we going off on, here?
I ask again... why would GWS not want him in the main draft, then suddenly decide they want him a bit later?

They're still going to take picks after the 1st round - any club would want him, and have no issue taking him as soon as they could in the 2nd/3rd round.
PSD will give him SOME small amount of choice, but only because a lot of clubs will have filled up their lists and not take a pick at all.

Dude, I think you are getting a bit confused here.

Let's for argument's sake say that Caddy doesn't get traded, then decides to enter both drafts.

National Draft.
GWS has first pick. They can pick Lachie Whitfield, they can pick Jimmy Toumpas, etc. Why would they pick Caddy with their first pick?? - They wouldn't. They might want to take him with their next pick (20), but he'll have gone to a Melb based club (probably) by then.

That is essentially my question above - where do you think Caddy would get picked in the National Draft.

Pre-Season Draft.
GWS has first pick. Caddy will be the best player in this draft if he enters it. They will pick him.

 

[Slattery_20]

It's not about not wanting him, it's about what is a price you're prepared to spend on a bloke who doesn't want to be there. Big difference in cost between pick 5 in the ND and pick 5 in the PSD, the latter isn't worth as much.

But "doesn't want to be there" doesn't (officially, just like tanking) exist in the AFL draft system. If you're in a draft, you go where you're sent. Doubly important since the kid's barely over draft age himself.

You are right to say beyond pick 10 though most clubs would pick him, but if he wants to try and get to a particular club, he would be better off going into the ND with a big price on his head, and maybe, just maybe, he gets to say pick 15 or so (assuming the desired club has that pick). In the PSD he wouldn't last beyond the first couple of picks, if that.

Would be draft tampering if he did it - might well find himself sitting out a few years, if he tried it on.

The thing about the PSD is, most of the time there will only be a handful of picks - recent years have only had about 6 picks taken on average. Plenty of clubs basically decide they're hapyp with what they've got through the main draft.

And, in this scenario (like McPhee, or Stevens etc) - his preferred destination would be one of those half-dozen, and the club he's just walked out on (who kept him on the list until second list lodgement to stop him going FA) would be another, so they're out of the race.

So your chances are massively cut down - from every club having 3+ goes at you (60+ picks), to only maybe 4-5 picks

Obviously - a much, better chance.

 

[Slattery_20]

Dude, I think you are getting a bit confused here.

Let's for argument's sake say that Caddy doesn't get traded, then decides to enter both drafts.

National Draft.
GWS has first pick. They can pick Lachie Whitfield, they can pick Jimmy Toumpas, etc. Why would they pick Caddy with their first pick?? - They wouldn't. They might want to take him with their next pick (20), but he'll have gone to a Melb based club (probably) by then.

This is exactly my point... if he goes into the main draft, and says he only wants to be in Melbourne (AFL has, in the past, allowed this) - that leaves him open slather for 10 clubs.
Surely his whole point is he wants to try and control where he goes.

EDIT: But, going along with your hypothetical - I'm sure he wouldn't last long - done nothing to drop him 'down' any theoretical order, and now had two pre-seasons into him = should go top 10, 15 at the very very latest.

 

[josh the gent]

This is exactly my point... if he goes into the main draft, and says he only wants to be in Melbourne (AFL has, in the past, allowed this) - that leaves him open slather for 10 clubs.
Surely his whole point is he wants to try and control where he goes.

EDIT: But, going along with your hypothetical - I'm sure he wouldn't last long - done nothing to drop him 'down' any theoretical order, and now had two pre-seasons into him = should go top 10, 15 at the very very latest.

Ok, so at pick 8, if you were the recruiter at Brisbane and had a choice between:

• a highly rated 18 year old, say Garlett, Stringer or Plowman; or
• Caddy who has already made it clear he won't be happy unless he goes to a Melbourne club

Then why would you pick Caddy?! All the players have similar potential/worth, so why waste your time getting him to Brisbane?!

 

[The Goon]

You'd assume so - that would give him slightly more control over his destination.

Would be an interesting scenario for the AFL, would they apply the Chalmers rule?

Care to enlighten me? What's the 'Chalmers' rule?

 

[Iva Bigun]

If Boak was prepared to sign with the Power that has no Coach, average list and freezing weather for the "love of the team"

Then Surely Caddy with, A players Coach, a fantastic list and Blue skys everyday (22 and clear skies in Brisbane, 16 and cloudy in Melbourne) it's a no brainer

 

[Slattery_20]

Care to enlighten me? What's the 'Chalmers' rule?

Brett Chalmers - ruckman? big bloke anyway - he & the Pies conspired to get him across, through basically telling other clubs he didn't want to go there - he spent a couple of years sitting out of all footy.

 

[The Goon]

Brett Chalmers - ruckman? big bloke anyway - he & the Pies conspired to get him across, through basically telling other clubs he didn't want to go there - he spent a couple of years sitting out of all footy.

Ahh. Ok, thanks.