Which list would you want? Richmond, Carlton, Geelong

[Footy Smarts]

Dekoning is a star
Henry has shown glimpses

The others you've mentioned are no different to what hawthorn fans saw of their list back then.
These players who look the part, but have shown little to nothing on field

Holmes has received coaches votes in 5 of his last 15 games and was rated as the top wingman in the league for the second half of last year. Lol at him having shown "little to nothing on field". That's 2 guys miles ahead of anything Hawthorn had.

You're right that almost every under 21 year old has only shown glimpses. But we're not expecting to pull gun players from out of our ass with late picks. Bruhn, Henry and Clark were extremely highly rated juniors and they're just way more likely to become quality players than late picks.

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood played plenty of finals with Grundy and Treloar on the list, they are clearly no barrier to playing finals.

The biggest thing is alway where you can win a Grand Final. If you do and they don't, fair play. If they do and you don't, Collingwood's mismanagement of their cap will have come back to bight.

Pies have made some tough calls in order to put themselves in the best position possible for success.

Currently they are premiership favourites and a game clear on top, despite having not yet played any of the bottom three teams.

But if we don't win the flag it will be because of the Grundy and Treloar trades.

Rightio...

 

[Pie thon]

Carlton has the best list

They have their key position players sorted out. Their top end mids are elite, and they will all be around for at least 5 years

They are just missing an x factor. Maybe its strategy, maybe a couple of pressure players short, maybe toxic personal behind the scenes. Dont know.

But Carltons is my pick. I do hope they dont work it out, because the pies are in a window and want to not worry about another rival yet

 

[Fadge]

Carlton for next year on the basis that their list is easier to fix than the other two clubs.

Oh no.

Will people never learn?!?

 

[Elixuh]

Oh no.

Will people never learn?!?

I’ll start a low hanging fruit thread at the end of the year that will surely be successful for carlton, ‘Carlton and west coast and their future prospects’.

 

[Fadge]

I’ll start a low hanging fruit thread at the end of the year that will surely be successful for carlton, ‘Carlton and west coast and their future prospects’.

I wouldn't be so sure...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Pies have made some tough calls in order to put themselves in the best position possible for success.

Currently they are premiership favourites and a game clear on top, despite having not yet played any of the bottom three teams.

But if we don't win the flag it will be because of the Grundy and Treloar trades.

Rightio...

Currently is round 10.

I know the ladder leader half way through the season wins the Fadge Premiership, but the real Premiership requires the winning of a Grand Final. And who knows what will stop Collingwood from doing that for the 64th time in 65 years, but I am just saying it would be ironic if it was one of their old boys who are still on the payroll that stops them. Don't you think?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Carlton has the best list

They have their key position players sorted out. Their top end mids are elite, and they will all be around for at least 5 years

They are just missing an x factor. Maybe its strategy, maybe a couple of pressure players short, maybe toxic personal behind the scenes. Dont know.

But Carltons is my pick. I do hope they dont work it out, because the pies are in a window and want to not worry about another rival yet

I think this is largely correct. I think they unload one evil contract this year when McGovern expires. A dynamic mid-forward could do wonders for them. They also need a few young role players to come on a bit.

Their list would be in excellent shape if they hadn't burdened themselves with some putrible contracts when they were in the process of rebuilding.

 

[Fadge]

Drivel, drivel, drivel.......but I am just saying it would be ironic if it was one of their old boys who are still on the payroll that stops them. Don't you think?

And the chances of that are only slightly more likely than the chances of Martin winning a 4th Norm Smith at Richmond...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And the chances of that are only slightly more likely than the chances of Nartin winning a 4th Norm Smith at Richmond...

The biggest of all humans can be comfortably brought down by his intersection in time and space with the tiniest of bullets. The Pies kindly provided some ammunition for other clubs to fire at them. It would be rather tragic if one of those brought the hapless Magpies down during the finals series.

 

[longdonkey]

Think I'd take Geelong because the only guys that they will struggle to replace are Dangerfield and Hawkins but they should release enough salary cap to be able to find players out of contract or free agents. Richmond are about two steps from a 500 metre cliff and by the time Carlton can draft any depth McKay and Curnow will be in their 30's.

So cheap house beats paper bags on this occasion.

 

[VinnieB]

Collingwood played plenty of finals with Grundy and Treloar on the list, they are clearly no barrier to playing finals.

The biggest thing is alway where you can win a Grand Final. If you do and they don't, fair play. If they do and you don't, Collingwood's mismanagement of their cap will have come back to bight.

We didn't win a GF with both there in 2018. Nor did we make the GF in 2019 and 2020 and didn't play finals in 2021. However, we were less than a goal from playing in a GF without either player. In fact, when Grundy was out injured, we won 13 of the next 16 games in 2022.

Melbourne winning the 2023 GF will have nothing to do with Grundy, unless he dominates the game.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Geelong I think are best placed to win a flag in the next couple of years unless Hawkins retires this year and I think Carlton’s is underperforming and a good coach combined couple of decent player moves could result in it getting into contention.

I’m pretty sure Richmond is about to hit that exact same cliff that Hawks hit after trading in Wingard and JOM after their three-peat and it’s not going to be pretty in 2-3 years. 3 flags will do that to you

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong I think are best placed to win a flag in the next couple of years unless Hawkins retires this year and I think Carlton’s is underperforming and a good coach combined couple of decent player moves could result in it getting into contention.

I’m pretty sure Richmond is about to hit that exact same cliff that Hawks hit after trading in Wingard and JOM after their three-peat and it’s not going to be pretty in 2-3 years. 3 flags will do that to you

The Richmond list currently has:

- 10 Premiership players under 30yo(down to as young as 23yo)

- 2 further GWS Grand Final players 25, 26yo

- 10 first round picks and 10 second round picks plus Baker 25, Graham 25, Short 27.

- A number of promising players who do not fit any of the above categories in M Rioli Jnr, Ryan, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Young.

Below is a link to Hawk's list for 2017 after they got rid of S Mitchell & Lewis. Like Richmond's current list there was still plenty of talent there. But in their next 3 seasons they won 10.5, 15 and 11 home and away games. So they did not actually fall off a cliff. Their list was actually very decent at that time, and they had a healthy spread of highish draft picks across their list. But they wanted a flag or nothing. So Birchall, the older Hodge, Smith, Ceglar, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, Tim O'Brien, Howe, Burton, Pittonet have been traded or given away all to end up playing with other clubs. Frawley increasingly struggled with injury. Rioli was lost to the game in his prime. Vickery, Schoenmakers, Langford, O'Rourke, Hartung, Lovell all barely fired another shot or were just no good. 5 of that 6 were originally top 25 draft picks.

They seemed to switch to a policy of taking salary dumps like Patton and Scully. They traded for Impey, who has had a lot of injuries, Wingard, Frost, Phillips, Max Lynch, Cooper Stephens and got Amon as a Free Agent after 2017.

Such that 6 off seasons later all they have remaining of value on the list from the 2017 list is: Breust, Sicily, Hardwick, Lewis, Morrison, Nash. 6 players.

They had started taking wrong turns from 2017 by jettisoning Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They had also traded/free agented quite a lot of players during their Premiership years, and in 2017 their list contained 12 players that had played at other clubs. Richmond's current list has just 6 of those.

Why did Hawthorn plummet from 2020 onwards? Ultimately, they chose to, in order to get draft picks for a rebuild. Initially, they had a series of things go wrong, poor trades, premature retirements, injuries. There is absolutely nothing to say any of this will be true for Richmond, or any other club. It requires a lot to go wrong.

So far Richmond, since their first flag, have brought in just 3 players from other clubs in trades or as free agents. Lynch, Taranto, Hopper, all high quality players, all to fill obvious needs. Richmond have taken no salary dumps. Only let 2 other players in the door who had played for other clubs, Parker and Mav Weller. The list has been kept stable. Older players have not been forced out. And also unlike Hawthorn, Richmond have shown no sign at all so far of chopping and changing from one strategy to another then another. So it beats me why people think Richmond are following the Hawks' path. The whole thing looks completely different bar the 3 flags in short order then needing to obviously transition the best 22.

Hawthorn Playing List for 2017 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In 2017, Hawthorn had the following players younger than 30yo(14 Premiership players under 30):

29 yo Birchall rd pick 14

28 Frawley pick 12 Isaac Smith pick 19 Stratton

27 McEvoy pick 9 Rioli pick 12 Whitecross pick 29

26 Vickery pick 8 Schoenmakers pick 16 Breust, Ceglar

25 Shiels pick 34 Gunston pick 29 Duryea

24 Langford

23 Tom Mitchell pick 21 O'Meara pre-draft pick equivalent to a top 5 pick Tim O'Brien 28 Jono O'Rourke pick 2

22 Hartung pick 24 Sicily

21 Howe pick 31

20 Burton pick 19 Hardwick pick 44 Pittonet

19 Lovell pick 22

18 Mitch Lewis, Harry Morrison, Nash

 

[Arkhitect]

I can't decide. It's like trying to pick from one of the below.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Cats fans really starting to sound like hawks fans in 2015/16

Nah, we sound like Cats fans in 15/16. “Good kids coming through, we can keel contending and win a flag.” Turns out we were right.

Well done us.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

The Richmond list currently has:

- 10 Premiership players under 30yo(down to as young as 23yo)

- 2 further GWS Grand Final players 25, 26yo

- 10 first round picks and 10 second round picks plus Baker 25, Graham 25, Short 27.

- A number of promising players who do not fit any of the above categories in M Rioli Jnr, Ryan, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Young.

Below is a link to Hawk's list for 2017 after they got rid of S Mitchell & Lewis. Like Richmond's current list there was still plenty of talent there. But in their next 3 seasons they won 10.5, 15 and 11 home and away games. So they did not actually fall off a cliff. Their list was actually very decent at that time, and they had a healthy spread of highish draft picks across their list. But they wanted a flag or nothing. So Birchall, the older Hodge, Smith, Ceglar, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, Tim O'Brien, Howe, Burton, Pittonet have been traded or given away all to end up playing with other clubs. Frawley increasingly struggled with injury. Rioli was lost to the game in his prime. Vickery, Schoenmakers, Langford, O'Rourke, Hartung, Lovell all barely fired another shot or were just no good. 5 of that 6 were originally top 25 draft picks.

They seemed to switch to a policy of taking salary dumps like Patton and Scully. They traded for Impey, who has had a lot of injuries, Wingard, Frost, Phillips, Max Lynch, Cooper Stephens and got Amon as a Free Agent after 2017.

Such that 6 off seasons later all they have remaining of value on the list from the 2017 list is: Breust, Sicily, Hardwick, Lewis, Morrison, Nash. 6 players.

They had started taking wrong turns from 2017 by jettisoning Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They had also traded/free agented quite a lot of players during their Premiership years, and in 2017 their list contained 12 players that had played at other clubs. Richmond's current list has just 6 of those.

Why did Hawthorn plummet from 2020 onwards? Ultimately, they chose to, in order to get draft picks for a rebuild. Initially, they had a series of things go wrong, poor trades, premature retirements, injuries. There is absolutely nothing to say any of this will be true for Richmond, or any other club. It requires a lot to go wrong.

So far Richmond, since their first flag, have brought in just 3 players from other clubs in trades or as free agents. Lynch, Taranto, Hopper, all high quality players, all to fill obvious needs. Richmond have taken no salary dumps. Only let 2 other players in the door who had played for other clubs, Parker and Mav Weller. The list has been kept stable. Older players have not been forced out. And also unlike Hawthorn, Richmond have shown no sign at all so far of chopping and changing from one strategy to another then another. So it beats me why people think Richmond are following the Hawks' path. The whole thing looks completely different bar the 3 flags in short order then needing to obviously transition the best 22.

Hawthorn Playing List for 2017 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In 2017, Hawthorn had the following players younger than 30yo(14 Premiership players under 30):

29 yo Birchall rd pick 14

28 Frawley pick 12 Isaac Smith pick 19 Stratton

27 McEvoy pick 9 Rioli pick 12 Whitecross pick 29

26 Vickery pick 8 Schoenmakers pick 16 Breust, Ceglar

25 Shiels pick 34 Gunston pick 29 Duryea

24 Langford

23 Tom Mitchell pick 21 O'Meara pre-draft pick equivalent to a top 5 pick Tim O'Brien 28 Jono O'Rourke pick 2

22 Hartung pick 24 Sicily

21 Howe pick 31

20 Burton pick 19 Hardwick pick 44 Pittonet

19 Lovell pick 22

18 Mitch Lewis, Harry Morrison, Nash

I appreciate the amount of effort that went into this. There’s a lot of numbers being thrown around about the age of players, premiership players and the round they were picked in.

Frankly regardless of where players were taken in the draft , I think Richmond has whiffed on too many picks since 2016 (as much part to their success as anything) which is going to lead to an absolute dearth of talent shortly (potentially already is)

The only players I think you’ve drafted since 2016 that can be core A-grade stars part of a finals and premiership run are Bolton and MAYBE Balta and Gibcus. I think 2021 was a nice draft for you but all the AFL players you’ve drafted bar the names mentioned will be solid AFL players at best. There is nothing on your list in the same stratosphere as prime Riewoldt, Martin, Cotchin, Lynch and Rance. Lynch is still a gun but injury prone KPFs over 30 have a limited shelf life.

Taranto is a good solid player but it’s like adding Prestia back in the day to a group without those names mentioned - it doesn’t move the needle. Hopper I’m sorry is a massive massive overpay and it looks like you’ve paid a premium price for a b-grade mid (basically same impact as we are getting out of JOM). These trades have gutted two drafts for you without elite young talent underneath it to support it. You might meander around just outside the 8 while you have Lynch if you can get him on the park but it’s not going anywhere serious anytime soon

 

[nut]

I appreciate the amount of effort that went into this. There’s a lot of numbers being thrown around about the age of players, premiership players and the round they were picked in.

Frankly regardless of where players were taken in the draft , I think Richmond has whiffed on too many picks since 2016 (as much part to their success as anything) which is going to lead to an absolute dearth of talent shortly (potentially already is)

The only players I think you’ve drafted since 2016 that can be core A-grade stars part of a finals and premiership run are Bolton and MAYBE Balta and Gibcus. I think 2021 was a nice draft for you but all the AFL players you’ve drafted bar the names mentioned will be solid AFL players at best. There is nothing on your list in the same stratosphere as prime Riewoldt, Martin, Cotchin, Lynch and Rance. Lynch is still a gun but injury prone KPFs over 30 have a limited shelf life.

Taranto is a good solid player but it’s like adding Prestia back in the day to a group without those names mentioned - it doesn’t move the needle. Hopper I’m sorry is a massive massive overpay and it looks like you’ve paid a premium price for a b-grade mid (basically same impact as we are getting out of JOM). These trades have gutted two drafts for you without elite young talent underneath it to support it. You might meander around just outside the 8 while you have Lynch if you can get him on the park but it’s not going anywhere serious anytime soon

Which 2 drafts have we gutted?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Which 2 drafts have we gutted?

50% of a drafts value is like your first round pick so last year and this year?

 

[nut]

50% of a drafts value is like your first round pick so last year and this year?

We are missing our first round pick..
We are also in the running for Himmelburg as a RFA at the end of the year and having paid a fair price for Hopper and Taranto, I think it puts us in the box seat to get him. Its a bit like when everyone said we paid overs for Prestia …. And we end up with Lynch a couple of years later.
Our list management team has our age demographic in a pretty good spot.

 

[Boomer93]

Most experts had Port, Demons and Lions top 3. Then Cats and Pies next.

Who were these experts?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

We are missing our first round pick..
We are also in the running for Himmelburg as a RFA at the end of the year and having paid a fair price for Hopper and Taranto, I think it puts us in the box seat to get him. Its a bit like when everyone said we paid overs for Prestia …. And we end up with Lynch a couple of years later.
Our list management team has our age demographic in a pretty good spot.

It’s still hurting/gutting two drafts, the cheapest way to get talent is the draft, it’s where basically 95% of contending lists are built from. Specifically the draft is by far the cheapest way to get top end talent.

Taranto was a fair trade, Prestia was a fair trade, I think the price you’re going to end up paying is either way over or a disaster depending on where you finish.

I didn’t realise you were so big into Himmelberg but it doesn’t bother me anyway because I don’t really understand why people rate him so highly, he’s another solid b-grade player.

 

[VinnieB]

The Richmond list currently has:

- 10 Premiership players under 30yo(down to as young as 23yo)

- 2 further GWS Grand Final players 25, 26yo

- 10 first round picks and 10 second round picks plus Baker 25, Graham 25, Short 27.

- A number of promising players who do not fit any of the above categories in M Rioli Jnr, Ryan, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Young.

Below is a link to Hawk's list for 2017 after they got rid of S Mitchell & Lewis. Like Richmond's current list there was still plenty of talent there. But in their next 3 seasons they won 10.5, 15 and 11 home and away games. So they did not actually fall off a cliff. Their list was actually very decent at that time, and they had a healthy spread of highish draft picks across their list. But they wanted a flag or nothing. So Birchall, the older Hodge, Smith, Ceglar, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, Tim O'Brien, Howe, Burton, Pittonet have been traded or given away all to end up playing with other clubs. Frawley increasingly struggled with injury. Rioli was lost to the game in his prime. Vickery, Schoenmakers, Langford, O'Rourke, Hartung, Lovell all barely fired another shot or were just no good. 5 of that 6 were originally top 25 draft picks.

They seemed to switch to a policy of taking salary dumps like Patton and Scully. They traded for Impey, who has had a lot of injuries, Wingard, Frost, Phillips, Max Lynch, Cooper Stephens and got Amon as a Free Agent after 2017.

Such that 6 off seasons later all they have remaining of value on the list from the 2017 list is: Breust, Sicily, Hardwick, Lewis, Morrison, Nash. 6 players.

They had started taking wrong turns from 2017 by jettisoning Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They had also traded/free agented quite a lot of players during their Premiership years, and in 2017 their list contained 12 players that had played at other clubs. Richmond's current list has just 6 of those.

Why did Hawthorn plummet from 2020 onwards? Ultimately, they chose to, in order to get draft picks for a rebuild. Initially, they had a series of things go wrong, poor trades, premature retirements, injuries. There is absolutely nothing to say any of this will be true for Richmond, or any other club. It requires a lot to go wrong.

So far Richmond, since their first flag, have brought in just 3 players from other clubs in trades or as free agents. Lynch, Taranto, Hopper, all high quality players, all to fill obvious needs. Richmond have taken no salary dumps. Only let 2 other players in the door who had played for other clubs, Parker and Mav Weller. The list has been kept stable. Older players have not been forced out. And also unlike Hawthorn, Richmond have shown no sign at all so far of chopping and changing from one strategy to another then another. So it beats me why people think Richmond are following the Hawks' path. The whole thing looks completely different bar the 3 flags in short order then needing to obviously transition the best 22.

Hawthorn Playing List for 2017 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In 2017, Hawthorn had the following players younger than 30yo(14 Premiership players under 30):

29 yo Birchall rd pick 14

28 Frawley pick 12 Isaac Smith pick 19 Stratton

27 McEvoy pick 9 Rioli pick 12 Whitecross pick 29

26 Vickery pick 8 Schoenmakers pick 16 Breust, Ceglar

25 Shiels pick 34 Gunston pick 29 Duryea

24 Langford

23 Tom Mitchell pick 21 O'Meara pre-draft pick equivalent to a top 5 pick Tim O'Brien 28 Jono O'Rourke pick 2

22 Hartung pick 24 Sicily

21 Howe pick 31

20 Burton pick 19 Hardwick pick 44 Pittonet

19 Lovell pick 22

18 Mitch Lewis, Harry Morrison, Nash

Convinced yourself?

Fact is it has the worst under 22 talent in the game.

It’s this blind optimism of the list that will see the Tigers mid table at best for a very, very long time. And with Tassie coming in……

 

[VinnieB]

We are missing our first round pick..
We are also in the running for Himmelburg as a RFA at the end of the year and having paid a fair price for Hopper and Taranto, I think it puts us in the box seat to get him. Its a bit like when everyone said we paid overs for Prestia …. And we end up with Lynch a couple of years later.
Our list management team has our age demographic in a pretty good spot.

What will be interesting is how a RFA will look at Richmond without Hardwick there. I think there’s little doubt players who may be in demand are influenced by the coach. If Hardwick had left this time last year, would Taranto and Hopper still have had a preference for Richmond. Maybe the 7 yr deal helped.

 

[nut]

It’s still hurting/gutting two drafts, the cheapest way to get talent is the draft, it’s where basically 95% of contending lists are built from. Specifically the draft is by far the cheapest way to get top end talent.

Taranto was a fair trade, Prestia was a fair trade, I think the price you’re going to end up paying is either way over or a disaster depending on where you finish.

I didn’t realise you were so big into Himmelberg but it doesn’t bother me anyway because I don’t really understand why people rate him so highly, he’s another solid b-grade player.

Which drafts have been gutted? It’s a pretty simple question …
Taranto cost our first pick last year and our Callum Jones pick with a swap of picks…
This draft we are missing our first rnd pick… hardly gutted.