Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth? Part 2

[H00t]

Interesting exercise. I'll have a go:

Newcombe, Jiath: Good players

Day, Ward, MacKenzie, Ramadan, MacDonald, Reeves, Weddle, Ginnivan: Should be running around Dogshit Central FC.

Odd way to say you’d like them running around for North instead of Hawthorn.

 

[Chief]

Chief make sure you hold this poster to this.

How?

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Interesting exercise. I'll have a go:

Newcombe, Jiath: Good players

Day, Ward, MacKenzie, Ramadan, MacDonald, Reeves, Weddle, Ginnivan: Should be running around Dogshit Central FC.

If your going to troll

Go to the Bay

I know its hard to not be a detriment to society, but do it somewhere else

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yep and they'll have to do it this time around without AFL assistance. That is what set up their successful period

I assume you are referring to priority picks?

Because 12 other clubs have received the same or more priority picks than Hawthorn did - some even 3 x as many. Not only does this nullify the advantage that they offer but how come Hawthorn was the only club to become dominant after receiving them?

In total, we received 2 priority picks that ultimately netted us Beau Dowler and Lance Franklin.

Dowler was obviously a total bust and whilst Franklin was obviously a gun, we won 2 flags (our best and most dominant 2) with him playing for our closest rival.

In other words, AFL assistance/priority picks had little to nothing to do with our ability to produce a dominant, flag winning team.

 

[ferball]

Then did 1990 not happen?

Its over thirty years ago. If you're gonna get all pedantic about the word 'very' maybe you need to get outside in the sun and the trees and whatnot.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Players aged 25 (at the start of the 2024 season) and younger for each respective side, broken down into positions.*

Plus the 26 fo 30 group - who could still potentially be around once (if) these teams contend in Finals.

*obviously these positions aren't rigid as some players are versatile (eg. Sheezel, Thomas, Logue, Rachele, MacDonald, Hinge, Pedlar, Weddle, etc.)

Hawthorn

Spoiler

Defenders
25 - Scrimshaw
24 - CJ
23 - Blanck
21 - DGB, Serong, Mitchell
20 - D'Ambrosio
19 - Weddle, Macdonald
18 - McCabe, Ryan

Rucks
25 - Meek, Reeves
19 - Tucker

Midfield
25 - Nash, Worpel, Morrison
23 - Maginess, Stephens
22 - Newcombe, Day
20 - Ward, Mackenzie
19 - Hustwaite

Forwards
25 - Lewis
24 - Moore
21 - MacDonald, Ginnivan, Butler
20 - Ramsden
19 - O'Sullivan, Bennetts
18 - Watson, Dear

Players 26 to 30
27 - Hardwick, Chol
28 - Impey, Amon
29 - Sicily
30 - Wingard

Adelaide

Spoiler

Defenders
25 - Himmelberg, Hinge
24 - Butts, Jones, Keane
23 - Hamill, Murray
22 - Parnell, Worrell
21 - Borlase
20 - Michalanney
19 -
18 - Ryan

Rucks
N/A

Midfielders
25 -
24 - Sholl
23 - Schoenberg
22 -
21 - Soligo, Berry, Cook, Taylor
20 - Nankervis
19 - Curtin, Bond, Dowling
18 - Edwards

Forwards
25 - Murphy
24 - Fogarty
23 - Rankine, McHenry
22 - Gollant
21 - Tilthorpe, Pedlar
20 - Rachele
19 -
18 -

Players 26 to 30
26 - Dawson, Milera
27 - Keays
28 - ROB, Crouch, Burgess, Strachan
30 - Laird

North

Spoiler

Defenders
25 - Logue, K. Dawson
24 -
23 - Nyoun
22 - Lazarro
21 - Sheezel, Bergman, Archer
20 - Goater
19 - Hardeman
18 - W. Dawson

Rucks
25 - Xerri, Free
18 - Goad

Midfielders
25 -
24 - LDU, Thomas
23 - Scott, Stephens
22 - Powell
21 - Phillips
20 -
19 - Wardlaw, Harvey
18 - McKercher

Forwards
25 - Larkey, Fisher, Stephenson, Zurhaar
24 - CCJ
23 - Taylor
22 - Comben
21 - Curtis, Ford
20 - George, Hansen
19 - Drury
18 - Duursma

Players 26 to 30
26 - Simpkin
27 - Tucker
29 - Corr, McDonald

 

[smeltitdeltit]

It’s comments like these that make me think I’ve somehow stumbled into the Bay

As opposed to this absolute gem of reason and intellect?:

“Day, Ward, MacKenzie, Ramadan, MacDonald, Reeves, Weddle, Ginnivan: Should be running around Dogshit Central FC.”

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Yep and they'll have to do it this time around without AFL assistance. That is what set up their successful period

User name doesnt check out.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If I was going to pick five players out of that list above, excluding newbies and 25 year olds, I'd be taking - Sheezel, Newcombe, Day, LDU, Rachele

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If I was going to pick five players out of that list above, excluding newbies and 25 year olds, I'd be taking - Sheezel, Newcombe, Day, LDU, Rachele

Rankine would making my top-5 as one of the best matchwinners.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Rankine would making my top-5 as one of the best matchwinners.

If I was to do a next grouping of 5 he's be my first picked.

 

[Danger in Texas]

If I was to do a next grouping of 5 he's be my first picked.

Just curious, why Rash above Rankine? Not necessarily disagreeing, just interested to hear why

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If I was to do a next grouping of 5 he's be my first picked.

He looks primed to go next level to do the #23 proud next season.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Rankine would making my top-5 as one of the best matchwinners.

If you could guarantee his hamstring issues are behind him, I'd have Wardlaw before any of them.

 

[Caligo]

Just curious, why Rash above Rankine? Not necessarily disagreeing, just interested to hear why

I think rachele will end up more consistent/reliable. But wow I would love either of them... very jealous.

 

[Caligo]

If you could guarantee his hamstring issues are behind him, I'd have Wardlaw before any of them.

Absolutely. Wardlaw looks amazing but you need to be pretty scared about his legs.

 

[Matrix10]

As opposed to this absolute gem of reason and intellect?:

“Day, Ward, MacKenzie, Ramadan, MacDonald, Reeves, Weddle, Ginnivan: Should be running around Dogshit Central FC.”

I wouldn’t be concerned about his comments, just gives you, I and others the indication of his limited knowledge of the game and its participants

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Just curious, why Rash above Rankine? Not necessarily disagreeing, just interested to hear why

I just personally prefer those midfield/forward hybrids over players that are predominantly forwards. I think an AA calibre player of that position (which is what I expect Rachele will become) is simply more valuable than an AA calibre (which Rankine is) small forward.

Don't get me wrong though, I've been a big believer in Rankine. He'd be the next player I'd pick.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If you could guarantee his hamstring issues are behind him, I'd have Wardlaw before any of them.

Sheezel is #1 for me.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I just personally prefer those midfield/forward hybrids over players that are predominantly forwards. I think an AA calibre player of that position (which is what I expect Rachele will become) is simply more valuable than an AA calibre (which Rankine is) small forward.

Don't get me wrong though, I've been a big believer in Rankine. He'd be the next player I'd pick.

Fair enough. I think the hope for many Adelaide fans is that Rankine turns into that real speedy mid/forward hybrid - like a Shai Bolton type

Ultimately I agree though, think it’s more Rachele who has a midfield future, hoping he turns out to be our version of Robbie Gray

 

[Makeshift Park]

Sheezel is #1 for me.

I can respect that. There’s a bit of Ying and Yang there.

I don’t remember the last time a North player’s debut season exhibited as much class as Sheezel’s.

Wardlaw’s season - although it was very interrupted - exhibited more ferocity than any North debutante I can remember. And that ferocity feels so important to this supporter, after so many years of onfield complacency.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I can respect that. There’s a bit of Ying and Yang there.

I don’t remember the last time a *North player’s debut season exhibited as much class as Sheezel’s.

Wardlaw’s season - although it was very interrupted - exhibited more ferocity than any North debutante I can remember. And that ferocity feels so important to this supporter, after so many years of onfield complacency.

*any player.

Without exaggeration that was the best debut season I have witnessed.

 

[LoBu]

Thanks for clarifying the reason for your thinking, even if I don't necessarily agree with it.

To clarify, talent identification and development is as important, if not moreso, than accumulation of high draft picks.

There are many examples that underline this. Geelong have not had really any high draft picks for 20+ years and have been one of the best performed clubs in our comp. The same is true for other clubs to a lesser extent like Collingwood, West Coast previously, etc. The reverse is also true - with a number of clubs hoarding early draft picks for years and years - many of whom amounted to very little. Melbourne for a long time, Carlton for a long time, Gold Coast, North so far, etc, etc.

In terms of the now - for Hawthorn - we have not been trading our early picks for mature talent for well over 5 years now. Mitchell/O'Meara, etc were back in 2016 and have since been traded out for draft picks and young players. They are at the end of their careers - same goes for Wingard (the last of them) who is now 31. We have used our first pick every year since at least 2019 (and have picked up 2 first rounders in each of the last 2 drafts). Even the drafts where we regrettably traded out our first picks, we managed to pick up players later in the draft that could have been first rounders. Mitch Lewis and James Worpel in the Mitchell and O'Meara drafts, Newcombe in the mid season draft, etc

As for your final question about Newcombe - I don't think the fact he was a mid season draftee should influence your perception of his capacity to improve. Many first round picks turn out to be awful footballers, whilst late/rookie and other picks can end up superstars. Drafting is miles away from an exact science and players (and people) develop at all different kinds of rates and phases. Given Newcombe has improved considerably each season so far (local footballer - VFL footballer/role player @ AFL - good season - great season), I see no reason he will not be able to improve further. Even if he doesn't - a player in the top 20 for coaches votes, top 20 for Brownlow votes and in the AA squad is a perfectly fine peak to maintain. Certainly better than a lot of first round picks, including some of our recent ones (e.g. DGB).

Regarding Newcombe, the point was that he is already an All Australian squad member, he's hit pretty lofty heights already. Can he go another level? It's pretty hard to be AA midfielder. The growth has to come from other players, not Newcombe - or others mentioned on this thread (Moore, Wingard, Worpel, Scilily, Breust, etc). I'm not questioning their ability and levels. I'm not questioning Day either.

The question mark is on Mackenzie, Ward, Butler, DGB - these are the top draft picks that you've recruited. Once Day and Watson are in, that's 6 - of which only half are likely to make an A grade career.

With clubs like Gold Coast and North accumulating serious high end talent in bucket loads - how is Hawthorn going to compete against this onslaught of high end talent?

Hawthorn may get away with it, having 3 more drafts to get serious talent (which can only happen with 3 more poor years) - but once Tasmania is in - all the bottom clubs are screwed. If you haven't got the talent by then, it's just middle of the road for a long time.

 

[SSSSSS]

No poll. The count has been stopped.

It's Joever for fake news North supporters.

 

[Caligo]

Regarding Newcombe, the point was that he is already an All Australian squad member, he's hit pretty lofty heights already. Can he go another level? It's pretty hard to be AA midfielder. The growth has to come from other players, not Newcombe - or others mentioned on this thread (Moore, Wingard, Worpel, Scilily, Breust, etc). I'm not questioning their ability and levels. I'm not questioning Day either.

The question mark is on Mackenzie, Ward, Butler, DGB - these are the top draft picks that you've recruited. Once Day and Watson are in, that's 6 - of which only half are likely to make an A grade career.

With clubs like Gold Coast and North accumulating serious high end talent in bucket loads - how is Hawthorn going to compete against this onslaught of high end talent?

Hawthorn may get away with it, having 3 more drafts to get serious talent (which can only happen with 3 more poor years) - but once Tasmania is in - all the bottom clubs are screwed. If you haven't got the talent by then, it's just middle of the road for a long time.

Whilst I think players like Moore and Newcombe do have the potential for growth (there is actually a huge gap between edge of AA player and a guy who wins big finals off his own boot), the area we need to see the most growth from is that list of guys you said. We also have a range of flankers (mcdonald, scrimshaw, jiath) whose consistency needs work.

The part where I agree with you most though is the time frame bit. Like other rebuilding clubs we are on a clock. Once tassie shows up it gets an awful lot harder. Although there will be huge rebuild opportunities from tassie too. Some clubs will receive insane deals from a new club with infinite picks. As an example, see Lachie Weller. Trying to set yourself up to take advantage of that is tricky though obviously.

My understanding is GWS offered a top 5 and a top 10 pick for either bruest or gunston after our threepeat. These sorts of deals can supercharge a rebuild.