Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

[Blackas87]

The toughest games in the AFL are- Richmond at MCG, WC in Perth, Bris at Gabba and Geelong at Geelong. We've drawn all 4. I wonder how many teams over the past couple of years have had that honour!?

Melbourne 2018 had all these, also had Adelaide at the Adelaide oval after their 2017 Grand Final. West Coast made the Grand Final 2018 and Geelong were 2nd on the ladder 2017 and a prelim finalist
Beat West Coast in Perth, Beat Adelaide in Adelaide, lost to Geelong by 2 points at Geelong

Also had the 2016 premiers twice.

No one complained, made a prelim.

Saints fans already thrown the towel in. If you’re any good you’ll be making finals regardless of the fixture.

 

[PJays]

Melbourne 2018 had all these,

Which is not comparable cos Brisbane weren't any good in 2018, and Geelong finished 8th.....

And the MCG is Melbourne's home ground, so playing Richmond there isn't equivalent to St.Kilda playing Richmond there.

also had Adelaide at the Adelaide oval after their 2017 Grand Final.

And Adelaide finished 12th.....

 

[Freomaniac]

Melbourne 2018 had all these, also had Adelaide at the Adelaide oval after their 2017 Grand Final. West Coast made the Grand Final 2018 and Geelong were 2nd on the ladder 2017 and a prelim finalist
Beat West Coast in Perth, Beat Adelaide in Adelaide, lost to Geelong by 2 points at Geelong

Also had the 2016 premiers twice.

No one complained, made a prelim.

Saints fans already thrown the towel in. If you’re any good you’ll be making finals regardless of the fixture.

People are going to bitch and Moan about fixtures, Injuries and Umpiring decsions.

no use complaining about things that are out of your hands and you cant control. sometimes as crappy as some situations are, you have to accept them and do what you can do

 

[Soberian Tiger]

It's going to be one of those close seasons if you're a mid table side where a one or 2 close games determine a team gets 7th-10th

Isn't that what usually happens? I remember all those years when Richmond finished ninth. The last four were with 12 wins, 11 wins, 11 wins and 11 wins plus a draw. Both the earliest and latest of those four years were followed by a season where eighth spot was secured with fewer ladder points than saw Richmond missing finals the previous season.

Still, I can't see the point to finals wildcards. Rather, I wouldn't be that bothered if there was just a top six.

 

[Freomaniac]

Which is not comparable cos Brisbane weren't any good in 2018, and Geelong finished 8th.....

And the MCG is Melbourne's home ground, so playing Richmond there isn't equivalent to St.Kilda playing Richmond there.



And Adelaide finished 12th.....

Are you talking about the crows in the 2018 Season?

Yeah they finished 12th but they were not a typical 12th placed side in 2018.

Yes the crows made the grand final finishing top with 15 wins and winning 2 finals to make the grand final.

On the surface crows finishing 12th looked like a massive decline. But they got 12 wins and 10 losses with an inferior %. North, Port, Essendon and Crows all got 12 wins in 2018 and didnt play finals.

 

[PJays]

Are you talking about the crows in the 2018 Season?

Yeah they finished 12th but they were not a typical 12th placed side in 2018.

Yes the crows made the grand final finishing top with 15 wins and winning 2 finals to make the grand final.

On the surface crows finishing 12th looked like a massive decline. But they got 12 wins and 10 losses with an inferior %. North, Port, Essendon and Crows all got 12 wins in 2018 and didnt play finals.

Quibbles aside, Melbourne didn't have a particularly tough fixture in 2018

They had Doubles against St.Kilda, Gold Coast and Dogs- 3 teams who didn't even make finals in 2017.

Fixture matters, anyone who pretends otherwise is either uninformed or stupid.

It's not about "making excuses" or other BS, just pointing out the bleeding obvious that some teams have a tougher road ahead than others.

 

[Freomaniac]

Isn't that what usually happens? I remember all those years when Richmond finished ninth. The last four were with 12 wins, 11 wins, 11 wins and 11 wins plus a draw. Both the earliest and latest of those four years were followed by a season where eighth spot was secured with fewer ladder points than saw Richmond missing finals the previous season.

Still, I can't see the point to finals wildcards. Rather, I wouldn't be that bothered if there was just a top six.

I get what your saying though. Looking at that finals 8 system from 1994-2010, Richmond finished 9th in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008.

I always had a soft spot for certain Richmond players that played in that 1990-2001 period such as Matty Knights, Paul Broderick, Brendon Gale, Nick Daffy and Matty Richardson.

I have stated, switch all those 9th placed finishes into 8th placed finishes, Thats another 6 finals. Also that meant that Richmond players in that 1990-2001 period would of played finals in 1994-6, 1998, 2000-01. So that 1990-2001 period alone would of added 4 more finals. Not much better but at least it was something for those decent 1990s richmond players to have something to look back on.

Hence why I look at freos history: 7 years out of 25 years of playing finals.

 

[Freomaniac]

Quibbles aside, Melbourne didn't have a particularly tough fixture in 2018

They had Doubles against St.Kilda, Gold Coast and Dogs- 3 teams who didn't even make finals in 2017.

Fixture matters, anyone who pretends otherwise is either uninformed or stupid.

It's not about "making excuses" or other BS, just pointing out the bleeding obvious that some teams have a tougher road ahead than others.

I agree the demons didnt have a tough fixture in 2018. The demons played some good and consistent footy in that season though. I wont take that away from them.

They had a good finals series in 2018 as well knocking off the cats and hawks despite Jesse Hogan having an injury. Hence they were confident of letting him go to freo as they were capable of winning finals without Hogan.

Demons should of made finals in 2018 and 2020 in my opinion. They were good enough and were capable in both those years but didnt play good footy in a couple of key games.

I agree with your view, some teams have tougher road ahead than others.

 

[Blackas87]

Which is not comparable cos Brisbane weren't any good in 2018, and Geelong finished 8th.....

And the MCG is Melbourne's home ground, so playing Richmond there isn't equivalent to St.Kilda playing Richmond there.



And Adelaide finished 12th.....

So you know where Richmond, West Coast, Geelong and Brisbane will finish this year?

you have already thrown the towel in.

 

[Lsta062]

It’s not necessarily the players that they lost, but Collingwood were already becoming average. I think that if the season lasted 22 rounds per club, then Collingwood would not have made it. So, Collingwood.

You can probably make a case for every team bar Brisbane though. It’s that sort of year.

- Port Adelaide because the core players have plummeted out of finals after a close PF loss before. I say that they have a way to go when it comes to demonstrating reliability. Will they be able to keep up the same performance being required to travel all over the country again?

- Richmond because of a loss in motivation after their success. Particularly a loss in motivation from or an injury to someone like Dusty.

- Geelong because they are starting to age (but then again, we’ve said this for almost a decade now). They’re probably the second to be locked into finals in my opinion.

- West Coast are low key an ageing side. Their core is full of 28+ players with KPFs Kennedy and Hurn turning 34 next year. KPFs are important in their structure with the way they play so S drop in output there could see them miss.

- St Kilda have a hard draw. Another thing is that they were fairly accurate. Why I bring that up is that teams can sometimes go really accurate and ride up the ladder one year and then drop the following year because they couldn’t keep it up. The fixture or a drop in accuracy could see them lose too much.

- Western Bulldogs because they probably could have missed out if small things went against them (e.g. the West Coast and Gold Coast games). Also, I don’t think that Treloar is going to make that much of a difference because they already have a good midfield.

All in all, I feel like the reasons for Collingwood and St Kilda are the strongest so they are my picks. If there is a third team to miss out, then I think it is between West Coast and Richmond. I think that the other 4 teams are locks.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Lsta062 our accuracy was largely due to how many shots we were having from inside 15m and so on.

 

[Lsta062]

Lsta062 our accuracy was largely due to how many shots we were having from inside 15m and so on.

Yeah that is true, but it is still hard to keep up. St Kilda’s accuracy did end up waning after Round 10, which also resulted in their win-loss record declining along with it. It’s not easy to reproduce their Rounds 2-10 level of accuracy and it showed from Round 11-Semi Final. I’m not saying it is luck because it’s not like they were accurate by constantly kicking from 50 metres out, but teams are not going to allow St Kilda to our-position them like that all the time. It’s something that teams caught onto rather quickly.

Because their only wins against the top 8 featured crazy accuracy this year (14.4 against Bulldogs, 15.3 against Richmond, 12.1 against Port Adelaide) and only the EF was a win with normal accuracy (although it was 10.7 vs Bulldogs’ 9.10), I could see St Kilda miss if they don’t find another way to win with the draw that they have. It got them to finals in 2020, but top teams will not allow St Kilda to constantly have shots close to goal so they need to find other ways to beat them. Bulldogs and Richmond did not allow it a second time in the finals and Geelong and West Coast did not allow it to begin with. St Kilda are playing Richmond, West Coast and Port Adelaide twice so they need to do something about it. Brad Crouch will help, but we’ll have to see how things pan out

 

[Soberian Tiger]

St Kilda will be improved by Higgins. I made the same call a year ago about Butler.

That's not because they're ex-Richmond, but because they meet/met some of St Kilda's pressing needs.

 

[PJays]

So you know where Richmond, West Coast, Geelong and Brisbane will finish this year?

you have already thrown the towel in.

Melbourne's 2018 fixture wasn't that challenging.

Why did you even bother replying if you were only going to address one of my 3 points about fixture difficulty?

No one has thrown in the towel- just pointing out St Kilda has a tough road ahead, tougher than other teams. That's all.

 

[JayJ20]

The toughest games in the AFL are- Richmond at MCG, WC in Perth, Bris at Gabba and Geelong at Geelong. We've drawn all 4. I wonder how many teams over the past couple of years have had that honour!?

We also have that too.
Richmond - MCG
WC - Perth
Bris - Gabba
Geelong - KP
I'll also add that we have Port Adelaide in Adelaide like St Kilda as well which is probably the 5th most difficult. No return games against any of them though.

It's a ridiculous fixture for St Kilda, but I guess you have to beat the best to be the best.

 

[AFDogs]

Richmond.

 

[Blackas87]

Melbourne's 2018 fixture wasn't that challenging.

Why did you even bother replying if you were only going to address one of my 3 points about fixture difficulty?

No one has thrown in the towel- just pointing out St Kilda has a tough road ahead, tougher than other teams. That's all.

I say this every year when people complain about the fixture.

Every club gets the other 17 teams, every club. You get some hard teams away means you get some easy teams at home. Get your easy wins at home and get some upsets on the road.

The 5 double ups aren’t an extra 5 harder games compared to another club, compare to a similar team ladder wise the Bulldogs they have Port, West Coast, Melbourne, Gold Coast and north. Based purely on the seasons before record St Kilda have 2 harder games.

likewise I stated Melbourne had 2017’s 1st place Adelaide and 2nd place Geelong and you said it’s not comparable because 2018 they finished 8th and 12th. For all we know Richmond and Geelong might finish 8th and 12th this year, while Gold Coast might jump up to the top 4 like Brisbane did.

If a team is any good the fixture doesn’t determine weather they make the finals or not.

 

[PJays]

. Get your easy wins at home and get some upsets on the road.

Which completely ignores the obvious fact that the tougher road games are harder to win, and they aren't distributed evenly.

St.Kilda plays Brisbane once this year, and we play Carlton once.

Away vs Brisbane, and home vs Carlton.

If this was the other way around, St Kilda would have a much better chance vs Brisbane, but roughly the same chance vs Carlton (Slightly worse perhaps). So overall those 2 games would be far easier.

Based purely on the seasons before record St Kilda have 2 harder games.

It's more than 2 games when you add further analysis eg the Dogs don't go to Brisbane.

2 wins can be the difference between 3rd and 6th.

Which basically means a genuine premiership chance or no chance, given 47 of the last 51 seasons the flag has been won by a top 3 team. And 46 of 48 flags have been won by top 4 teams since the final 5 was introduced in 1972.

 

[Blackas87]

Which completely ignores the obvious fact that the tougher road games are harder to win, and they aren't distributed evenly.

St.Kilda plays Brisbane once this year, and we play Carlton once.

Away vs Brisbane, and home vs Carlton.

If this was the other way around, St Kilda would have a much better chance vs Brisbane, but roughly the same chance vs Carlton (Slightly worse perhaps). So overall those 2 games would be far easier.



It's more than 2 games when you add further analysis eg the Dogs don't go to Brisbane.

2 wins can be the difference between 3rd and 6th.

Which basically means a genuine premiership chance or no chance, given 47 of the last 51 seasons the flag has been won by a top 3 team. And 46 of 48 flags have been won by top 4 teams since the final 5 was introduced in 1972.

St Kilda hosts 5 interstate clubs and plays away to interstate clubs 6 times. 11 All Victorian games.

Bulldogs host 6 interstate games and play away 5 to interstate clubs 6 times. 11 All Victorian games. Bulldogs might not go to Brisbane but they go to Perth twice.

Saints travel away once extra than the Dogs and have the same amount of Victorian derby’s.

Look I never look at the fixture being the difference between a premiership or not, the difference should be 1st and 4th, not 3rd and 6th. A premiership contender should make their home a fortress. Richmond have won 84% of MCG games the past 57 games including 13 of 17 (76%) against the other 3 permanent MCG tenants. 2 of those non wins were when they were woeful early 2020 draw to Collingwood and loss to Hawthorn.

Brisbane 83% the past 2 years at home, West Coast 80% at home the past 3
Geelong 83% the last 2.

ok those are tough games, but if the Saints are contenders they need their home to be a fortress of those standards.

Like I said If you have tough away games you get some easier home games. You mentioned Carlton game being neutral. Saints only play Carlton and North as home neutral games. You should be beating North if you are a contender and probably Carlton. You then have 9 games on your home deck as a pure home team. Dogs only have 7 pure home games and 4 neutral which include the Saints, an away game on your home deck you can nab. Saints get 12 games at Marvel compared to 10 for the Dogs. So yeah Bulldogs don’t go to Brisbane but have 2 less games on their fortress.

12 games at Marvel, Saints should be looking to win 10 of these.

 

[blueiris]

If I remember right Brisbane had played Saints 6 years in a row in Melbourne until last year it was only a matter of time for the Saints to play at the Gabba

 

[#gosaintas]

St Kilda hosts 5 interstate clubs and plays away to interstate clubs 6 times. 11 All Victorian games.

Bulldogs host 6 interstate games and play away 5 to interstate clubs 6 times. 11 All Victorian games. Bulldogs might not go to Brisbane but they go to Perth twice.

Saints travel away once extra than the Dogs and have the same amount of Victorian derby’s.

Look I never look at the fixture being the difference between a premiership or not, the difference should be 1st and 4th, not 3rd and 6th. A premiership contender should make their home a fortress. Richmond have won 84% of MCG games the past 57 games including 13 of 17 (76%) against the other 3 permanent MCG tenants. 2 of those non wins were when they were woeful early 2020 draw to Collingwood and loss to Hawthorn.

Brisbane 83% the past 2 years at home, West Coast 80% at home the past 3
Geelong 83% the last 2.

ok those are tough games, but if the Saints are contenders they need their home to be a fortress of those standards.

Like I said If you have tough away games you get some easier home games. You mentioned Carlton game being neutral. Saints only play Carlton and North as home neutral games. You should be beating North if you are a contender and probably Carlton. You then have 9 games on your home deck as a pure home team. Dogs only have 7 pure home games and 4 neutral which include the Saints, an away game on your home deck you can nab. Saints get 12 games at Marvel compared to 10 for the Dogs. So yeah Bulldogs don’t go to Brisbane but have 2 less games on their fortress.

12 games at Marvel, Saints should be looking to win 10 of these.

Must say I agree. Sooking about the draw is pretty sad. You get what you get. Just win your home games if your good enough and win your share of away games. If your not good eough then you don't play finals. A good commercial draw is more important

 

[PJays]

. So yeah Bulldogs don’t go to Brisbane but have 2 less games on their fortress.
.

Completely ignoring the 2 home games in Ballarat against interstate teams.

Which is a home game and should've become another fortress by now, much like Launceston is for Hawthorn.

Comparing the draws is folly. St.Kilda's much harder. We'll be right, but we'll need to be better than the Bulldogs to win the same number of games. That's what it means

It is what it is. A quirk of the AFL system. Every year some teams get a much harder road to travel than others. Some teams start the season at a disadvantage, others get a headstart. Hopefully they make up for it, giving us an easy draw in 2022.

 

[Blackas87]

Completely ignoring the 2 home games in Ballarat against interstate teams.

Which is a home game and should've become another fortress by now, much like Launceston is for Hawthorn.

Comparing the draws is folly. St.Kilda's much harder. We'll be right, but we'll need to be better than the Bulldogs to win the same number of games. That's what it means

It is what it is. A quirk of the AFL system. Every year some teams get a much harder road to travel than others. Some teams start the season at a disadvantage, others get a headstart. Hopefully they make up for it, giving us an easy draw in 2022.

No I counted the Ballarat games, 5 marvel and 2 at Ballarat is 7.

Dogs have 7 pure home games, 10 pure away games and 5 neutral.

Saints 9 pure home games, 9 pure away games and 4 neutral.

this is all Victorian clubs pure home games and I’m counting games like Collingwood’s 2 home games at Marvel and tassie games ect..

Carlton 7
Collingwood 8
Essendon 4
Geelong 9
Hawthorn 7
Melbourne 6
North Melbourne 9
St Kilda 9
Western Bulldogs 7

if the Saints are serious they need their home to be like what West Coast and Brisbane have done with their homes.

 

[PJays]

No I counted the Ballarat games, 5 marvel and 2 at Ballarat is 7.

Dogs have 7 pure home games, 10 pure away games and 5 neutral.

Saints 9 pure home games, 9 pure away games and 4 neutral.

this is all Victorian clubs pure home games and I’m counting games like Collingwood’s 2 home games at Marvel and tassie games ect..

Carlton 7
Collingwood 8
Essendon 4
Geelong 9
Hawthorn 7
Melbourne 6
North Melbourne 9
St Kilda 9
Western Bulldogs 7

if the Saints are serious they need their home to be like what West Coast and Brisbane have done with their homes.

I'd much rather St Kilda have two more "neutral" games vs North Melbourne and Essendon, instead of two "home" games vs Richmond and Geelong!

 

[Blackas87]

I'd much rather St Kilda have two more "neutral" games vs North Melbourne and Essendon, instead of two "home" games vs Richmond and Geelong!

is that because the Saints aren’t good enough to have a fortress like Brisbane?