Who will be better in 2024? Hawthorn or Essendon?

[Strapping Young Lad]

Every team could be a premiership favourite if you focused on their best patches of football or a certain position on the ground over a few week period.

Overall the Hawks are trending downwards. Maybe recruiting reserves players from other clubs will help see some improvement but the exact same things were said about Meek, Stephens and Greene 12 months ago and it got them nowhere. I might go back and bump a few of those arrogant posts.

A “laughing react” is not a rebuttal, it is forcing your head further into the sand.

The Hawks really hurt you eh?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

The Hawks really hurt you eh?

Your posting hurts my head, I think this will be my last reply to you unless you actually debate the thread topic. Once again, be a better mod.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Your posting hurts my head, I think this will be my last reply to you unless you actually debate the thread topic. Once again, be a better mod.

Oh noes

 

[Blackhawk42]

Most of Essendon's percentage was lost vs GWS and Collingwood. Essendon's percentage was 99.1% heading into round 23.

Also, I had a look at Hawthorn's wins in the second half and it isn't really that impressive to be claiming that they'll significantly improve (at least more than Essendon).

Beat Collingwood who they always beat. Beat them 14 out of the last 17 times. Pushed them in 2022 to lose by 4 points in a year Collingwood were 2 points away from a grand final. Still didn't help Hawthorn the following year.
Beat Bulldogs who lost to West Coast at home the next round.
Beat Brisbane at the MCG who they always beat. Hawthorn won the last 4 games. Brisbane haven't beaten Hawthorn since 2019 despite finishing top 4 (either ladder or the end of the year) every year since and Hawthorn finishing bottom 6. Doesn't mean much for next year.
Beat North, which literally every team from round 2 to round 24 did.
Smashed by Port, Gold Coast and Carlton.

Essendon in comparison have had a bad end to an otherwise decent year. Losses above 50 points:

Essendon:
Collingwood 70
Geelong 77
GWS 126

Hawthorn:
Melbourne 54
Port 55
Essendon 59
Carlton 60
Gold Coast 67
Fremantle 69
Sydney 81
Geelong 82

That's 3 uncompetitive games against good teams to 8 uncompetitive games against average to good teams.

The two anomalies in Essendon's 126 point loss to GWS and Hawthorn's 116 point win vs a terrible West Coast puts a blanket on the real gap between the two teams in 2023. Both won't be great in 2024, but I don't think Hawthorn will be that good like I don't think Essendon will either.

I don't mind the overall differing of opinion, but can we please not pretend like the youngest side in the comp beating both eventual Grand Finalists wasn't super impressive?

Only one other side in 2023 achieved that, being Melbourne, who also finished top 4 but had a loss to Brisbane earlier in the season.

 

[JayJ20]

I don't mind the overall differing of opinion, but can we please not pretend like the youngest side in the comp beating both eventual Grand Finalists wasn't super impressive?

Only one other side in 2023 achieved that, being Melbourne, who also finished top 4 but had a loss to Brisbane earlier in the season.

It is impressive from the perspective of match up and how young the team is. It could be a sign of things to come, but this thread is not about Hawthorn's list build. It's about 2024 and I don't see how beating Collingwood and Brisbane puts Hawthorn in a better position for 2024 than they were in previous years. As I demonstrated, this is almost a yearly thing for Hawthorn. Beating Collingwood and Brisbane is nothing new.

At best I see them rise to the 12-14 area and at worst 16th making their range 12-16. Pretty decent for a young list. Essendon's range is more 9-15 so there is some overlap there.

Focusing on specific parts of the year or records against specific teams doesn't paint the full story.

 

[austinnn]

Hawthorn for sure

 

[Blackhawk42]

The season is 24 rounds long, no point looking at sections of the year to suit a narrative.

When you look at Carlton's season do you focus only on the 6 consecutive losses and position around the bottom 4, or the winning streak that ultimately concluded with a preliminary final appearance?

Ignoring the second half of Hawthorn's season from a win/loss and statisical perspective because it simply 'suits a narrative' makes about as much sense as ignoring Carlton's.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

When you look at Carlton's season do you focus only on the 6 consecutive losses and position around the bottom 4, or the winning streak that ultimately concluded with a preliminary final appearance?

Ignoring the second half of Hawthorn's season from a win/loss and statisical perspective because it simply 'suits a narrative' makes about as much sense as ignoring Carlton's.

I focus on the whole season where we finished 5th, which seems pretty spot on for our level. If we only looked at rounds 14-23 I could claim premiership favouritism in 2024 but that would be as delusional as what your mates are doing.

 

[peetoo]

If you take Carlton’s season the last 11 in 2022 and the first 11 rounds in 2023 it’s 8 wins
Hawthorn in the same time? 7 wins
Neither beat anyone of note. Carlton turned it around and missed a gf by that much. League is finely balanced

 

[Blackhawk42]

I focus on the whole season where we finished 5th, which seems pretty spot on for our level. If we only looked at rounds 14-23 I could claim premiership favouritism in 2024 but that would be as delusional as what your mates are doing.

I don't think you'd have too much resistance if you claimed premiership favouritism. Brisbane and Collingwood are still the main two, but Carlton, Melbourne and GWS in particular are in that next group who should be believing it's a genuine possibility.

There really isn't much delusion going on from Hawthorn supporters.
The youngest side in the competition improved as the season went on. Finished on 7 wins and defeated both grand finalists.

Have now filled a few list holes and that young list will have another pre-season of development under its belt.
Why is it delusional to believe that improvement will come and 10 wins (for example) isn't outside the realms of possibility?

 

[Vindicater]

Would have thought Round 15-24 form is more relevant to how a team is going to look the following year than Round 1-10 form

Haven't Hawthorn been better in the second half of the year every year under Mitchell or am I making up head canon.

 

[Bradkli]

Haven't Hawthorn been better in the second half of the year every year under Mitchell or am I making up head canon.

2022 was similar to this year.. We went 5-8 at the back end of 2022..copped some hidings but beat Brisbane in Tassie..only lost to the pies by 4 points.

 

[Caligo]

Haw by a mile.

Mids

Merrett————-Newcombe
Parish—————Worpel
Tsatas—————Day
Hobbs—————McKenzie
N.Martin————Nash
Caldwell————Morrison
Shiel—————-Ward
Duursma———-McGuniness

Fwd

Wright————Lewis
Stringer———-Gunston
Langford———Moore
Gresham———Ginnivan
Jones————-Chol
Perkins————Butler

Def

McKay———Frost
Ridley———Scrimshaw
Redman——Impey
McGrath——Amon
Reid————Sicily
Durham——Weddle

Ruck

Draper/Goldstein
Reeves/Meek

Even with my bias that feels pretty even.

 

[Beerfish]

If you ignore all our losses we had a perfect season.

So there's that.

 

[peetoo]

Even with my bias that feels pretty even.

Even think the bombers have a couple of players who’d get off the leash so to speak and be match winners

 

[Caligo]

Even think the bombers have a couple of players who’d get off the leash so to speak and be match winners

I would love to steal Nic Martin from them.

 

[TheUnicorn]

I would love to steal Nic Martin from them.

 

[Caligo]

 

[Bradkli]

I would love to steal Nic Martin from them.

The exact player we need..imagine how good he would be on the wing for us. Kicks goals as well.

 

[Caligo]

The exact player we need..imagine how good he would be on the wing for us. Kicks goals as well.

I like him as he is, but the fact he is the sort of player we need is just a bonus. TheUnicorn Is being completely unreasonable not giving him to us. Not very unicorn like at all.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Has anyone done a combined Hawks & Dons side yet?

B: Weddle, McKay, Jiath
HB: Ridley, Sicily, Redman
C: Martin, Day, McGrath
HF: Moore, Lewis, Stinger
F: Breust, Wright, Ginnivan
R: Draper, Newcombe, Merrett
I: Hardwick, Parish, Amon, Langford
Sub: Ward

It's a pretty good side.

 

[Caligo]

Has anyone done a combined Hawks & Dons side yet?

B: Weddle, McKay, Jiath
HB: Ridley, Sicily, Redman
C: Martin, Day, McGrath
HF: Moore, Lewis, Stinger
F: Breust, Wright, Ginnivan
R: Draper, Newcombe, Merrett
I: Hardwick, Parish, Amon, Langford
Sub: Ward

It's a pretty good side.

That is a good side. Probably lacks a little absolute star talent though.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Has anyone done a combined Hawks & Dons side yet?

B: Weddle, McKay, Jiath
HB: Ridley, Sicily, Redman
C: Martin, Day, McGrath
HF: Moore, Lewis, Stinger
F: Breust, Wright, Ginnivan
R: Draper, Newcombe, Merrett
I: Hardwick, Parish, Amon, Langford
Sub: Ward

It's a pretty good side.

Yeah there's no way Hardwick, Langford or Amon are on the bench. If I'm picking a team right now:

Hardwick - McKay - Ridley
Redman - Sicily - CJ

Draper - Zerrett - Duke
Amon - Parish - Day

Moore - Lewis - Martin
Breust - Wright - Langford

Bench: Stringer, Nash, Worpel, Gresham

Unlucky to Scrimshaw, as Ridley is a better player and plays a similar role.

Also in consideration after Scrimshaw (HBF), McGrath (BP), Ward (Wing), Weddle (HBF), Ginnivan (FP), Laverde (KPD).

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yeah there's no way Hardwick, Langford or Amon are on the bench. If I'm picking a team right now:

Hardwick - McKay - Ridley
Redman - Sicily - CJ

Draper - Zerrett - Duke
Amon - Parish - Day

Moore - Lewis - Martin
Breust - Wright - Langford

Bench: Stringer, Nash, Worpel, Gresham

Unlucky to Scrimshaw, as Ridley is a better player and plays a similar role.

Also in consideration after Scrimshaw (HBF), McGrath (BP), Ward (Wing), Weddle (HBF), Ginnivan (FP), Laverde (KPD).

Martin is the best wingman from either side imo.

Gresham & Worpel ahead of McGrath?

Your bench has no 7th defender either.

Should be picking a balanced side.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Martin is the best wingman from either side imo.

Gresham & Worpel ahead of McGrath?

Your bench has no 7th defender either.

Should be picking a balanced side.

Worpel is (easily) ahead of McGrath based on last season IMO. Granted they wouldn't be vying for the same position as McGrath is a capable back pocket, whilst Worpel was one of the leading clearance midfielders in the entire league.

Martin is a gun HFF and a gun wingman. But TBH that was more about placing Day in the starting side, which is warranted IMO. Amon and Martin had similar seasons statistically, but in hindsight I'd swap the two around. It's much of a muchness.

Gresham could easily be replaced by any of the other names under consideration there. I think the team would need another forward realistically, as at least Day could play in the backline if need be.