Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

Who will be better in 2025

  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 133 70.4%

  • Carlton

    Votes: 56 29.6%
  • Total voters
    189

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Mr Meow said:
Hawthorn have the fittest, freshest list seen in many years and will likely have the best injury run of all time. :)
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You’re an evil man
 
AlwaysHawks15 said:
Newk struggled early without his mate Day there beside him. He turned things around once he was back on board and completely bossed quite a number of matches. His 3rd qtr in the QF should go down as 1 of the more recent displays of dominance you would likely see. Was on another level and this was against a quality midfield unit.
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Whately and Kingy pulled themselves over Newk after that match, saying that his body of work and then that performance announced him as a star.
 
bradfisher14 said:
Are you basing this purely on eye-test? Here are some statistics from Season 2024 that debunk your statement.

Scores from turnover:
  • 4th - Carlton - 52.0
  • 8th - Hawthorn - 49.0

Scores from D50:
  • 9th - Hawthorn - 33.6
  • 10th - Carlton - 33.5

Source:

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.
www.wheeloratings.com www.wheeloratings.com
Click to expand...
Scores from defensive half not D50

Probably more over the back half of the season as Carlton obviously dropped in the last 10 games. Turnover game held up ok but ball movement fell away completely

Score from Turnover
Carlton - 6th - 48.6
Hawthorn - 1st - 58.3

Scores from back half
Carlton - 14th - 29.9
Hawthorn - 2nd - 38.9

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.
www.wheeloratings.com www.wheeloratings.com
 
hawkman said:
Scores from defensive half not D50

Probably more over the back half of the season as Carlton obviously dropped in the last 10 games. Turnover game held up ok but ball movement fell away completely

Score from Turnover
Carlton - 6th - 48.6
Hawthorn - 1st - 58.3

Scores from back half
Carlton - 14th - 29.9
Hawthorn - 2nd - 38.9

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.
www.wheeloratings.com www.wheeloratings.com
Click to expand...
What was it the first half of the year?
 
carlton_99 said:
But why focus on just the last 10 games when Carlton were poor and Hawthorn were peaking. It would be like me picking the first 10 games to prove Carlton are better than Hawthorn at something. Surely you just use the whole season data which would smooth out the general peaks and troughs of any team in a season.
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Well I can only filter on that page the last 5, last 10 and the season. The last part of the season is most in mind.
If i could filter out the first 5 for Hawthorn and last 5 for Carlton when neither side were near what they were for the rest of the season it would probably be a better comparison.
 
hawkman said:
Well I can only filter on that page the last 5, last 10 and the season. The last part of the season is most in mind.
If i could filter out the first 5 for Hawthorn and last 5 for Carlton when neither side were near what they were for the rest of the season it would probably be a better comparison.
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Fair enough. Personally I agree that our ball movement could improve from defensive half. I think some personnel changes can help with this but a lot of it has to do with movement up the ground. If players are too stagnant it makes it easy for the opposition to clog up space and force the long down the line kick.

But I don't think our ball movement falling away was really a major factor in our drop-off - I'm not even sure there was much of a difference in that area between the "good" and "bad' Carlton in 2024. Carlton have never really been an elite ball movement team from the defensive half even when they were sitting 2nd.

I think any improvement in this area improves the "good" Carlton we saw in 2024 rather than bridges the gap between the "good" and "bad" if that makes sense.
 
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carlton_99 said:
Fair enough. Personally I agree that our ball movement could improve from defensive half. I think some personnel changes can help with this but a lot of it has to do with movement up the ground. If players are too stagnant it makes it easy for the opposition to clog up space and force the long down the line kick.

But I don't think our ball movement falling away was really a major factor in our drop-off - I'm not even sure there was much of a difference in that area between the "good" and "bad' Carlton in 2024. Carlton have never really been an elite ball movement team from the defensive half even when they were sitting 2nd. I think any improvement in this area improves the "good" Carlton we saw in 2024.
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Thought defending ball movement and stoppages was more an issue at Carlton even when they were going well. Then the back half of the season it was a struggle both ways
 
hawkman said:
Thought defending ball movement and stoppages was more an issue at Carlton even when they were going well. Then the back half of the season it was a struggle both ways
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When we were going well I definitely think defending stoppage was still an issue. However, I didn't think we had any trouble defending ball movement especially off turnover. In fact, this was the strongest I had seen Carlton at that since Voss took over.

I think the club has identified our unbalanced midfield in 2024 as the primary reason for an inconsistent year as well as our issues with defending stoppage. I also think a significant drop-off in our forward half pressure was another big reason for the poorer performances in the last two months of the season. I think these things are very fixable with adjustments to personnel in the 23.
 
carlton_99 said:
When we were going well I definitely think defending stoppage was still an issue. However, I didn't think we had any trouble defending ball movement especially off turnover. In fact, this was the strongest I had seen Carlton at that since Voss took over.

I think the club has identified our unbalanced midfield in 2024 as the primary reason for an inconsistent year as well as our issues with defending stoppage. I also think a significant drop-off in our forward half pressure was another big reason for the poorer performances in the last two months of the season. I think these things are very fixable with adjustments to personnel in the 23.
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I'm talking early in the season in games like against Adelaide, Geelong even the GWS game which you won where teams were able to move the ball easily not just at stoppage
 
hawkman said:
I'm talking early in the season in games like against Adelaide, Geelong even the GWS game which you won where teams were able to move the ball easily not just at stoppage
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Like I said earlier I don't see the point of selective data analysis. Every team is going to have individual games where they don't do a particular thing well but then other individual games where they excel in that area. I prefer to look at more than just individual games to form any conclusions.

Carlton were poor at defending stoppages in the vast majority of games through the season - therefore this is something I want corrected urgently. Carlton saw a massive drop in their forward half pressure from when they were 11-4 to when they finished 2-7. So this is another area of concern that needs immediate attention.

I don't see defending ball movement in this same category. Carlton finished the year conceding the 5th fewest points from turnover which is most team's most dominant score source and is the hardest type of ball movement to defend because the back six is not often settled. Even in the last 10 games when they were poor they were still 9th in this area so I don't see it as a major reason for the drop-off.
 
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carlton_99 said:
What happened to Cerra?
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Oh sorry. A blues friend of mine said he was hurt. I stand corrected if he is not.

He is a likable kid, a different friend of mine (also Carlton supporter) met him at his work and the next day he turned up with 4 signed Carlton hats for my friend and his 3 boys. I hope his body can stay strong for him.
 
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Hawks looked scary good from round 6 onwards. Plenty of scope for growth with their age demographics, no obvious weaknesses after securing TB and JB. Could see them going all the way this year and I’ll be surprised if they aren’t contending for a good while. No real knock on Carlton by voting Hawthorn.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Didn't realize we were also deficient in players like Kennedy 😂

Walsh also very iffy missing a few weeks with a regulation hamstring.
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I didnt say that. FYI 'latter' means the subject mentioned last, ie Owies, referring to Carlton's small forward deficiency.

Walsh has a history of hamstrings. I hope he comes good for my supercoach team but you cant say this is an ideal preseason for him.

Why do you get so offended about everything? It wasn't an opinion, aside from Cerra's fitness all I did was lay out some facts about how pre season is going.

Read back through my posts if you like, I've been front and centre on the Blues bandwagon for 3 years, if we didn't have their first two picks this year I would be right on them again.

Chill
 
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hawkman said:
Scores from defensive half not D50
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Ok nerd
hawkman said:
Probably more over the back half of the season as Carlton obviously dropped in the last 10 games. Turnover game held up ok but ball movement fell away completely

Score from Turnover
Carlton - 6th - 48.6
Hawthorn - 1st - 58.3

Scores from back half
Carlton - 14th - 29.9
Hawthorn - 2nd - 38.9

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.
www.wheeloratings.com www.wheeloratings.com
Click to expand...
Why are you cherry picking a sample size of games that suits your agenda?
 
Gavin Excell said:
In 100 years of the game, a small forward line rarely if ever wins a flag

Perhaps this year is different and a glorious future awaits
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Lewis and Dear are part of the future of that forward line. Yes we r not going full small guy syndrome
 

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Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

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