Who will be better in 2025? Saints, Demons or Bombers

[Nvent]

And you support St Kilda historically the biggest charity case in the competition, so what was is the point of that remark exactly?

Granted you were replying to a troll comment, but i always find the spectacle of a Saints fan with high notions about themselves to be very amusing!

It's a bit like watching a dog trying to walk on it's hind paws.

Blues fans cannot comment as their club has been found as cheats.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Blues fans cannot comment as their club has been found as cheats.

In 2000 and 2001 no premierships were won in those years.

Come back to me when your plastic irrelevant franchise finally qualifies for a finals campaign.

Anyway back on topic i went with Melbourne, but the Saints and Bombers will be in the mix for a finals spot as well.

 

[Falchoon]

In fact, Oliver (and Fritsch) is younger than the average age of Geelong's 2022 premiership team.

2022 you say?

OK, it's not obvious at first, but I can see you're referencing Geelon's premiership year of 2022. Detail isn't your friend.

2022 you say?

Sorry for the invective, but I'm convinced most people are idiots.

Fair enough.

 

[Trav 20]

2022 you say?

2022 you say?

Fair enough.

Joel Selwood last played in 2022 and you referenced him and how many games he missed.

But if you're referring to 2007 let me know.

 

[jdstorm]

Melbourne's biggest issue is the coach/game plan. If Goodwin sticks to his guns I think it'll be another down year for that group who are clearly screaming out for a change in approach.

For the Saints the issue is execution. People will bag Lyon but the Saints moved the footy as fast and effectively as anyone the last few years but fell down horribly once the ball went inside 50. If they can work out getting the most out of King, without sending all of their entries through him, they should improve.

I honestly don't know what Essendon's issue is. On paper they seem to have the talent. In 2024 they were sitting top 4 well into the season and then just... nothing. Losing 30-40 goals from Stinger hurts. I don't think they have a single player that will replace that volume so they'll look to Moneyball it between Caddy, Kako, Gresham & Langford.

The improvement probably comes from their talls forward of centre.

What's the mix with Draper/Bryan/Goldstein?

Is Peter Wright capable of holding down FF effectively or does he need to be getting ruck time as well?

Harry Jones off the wing, pushing forward for a mismatch, was an interesting move that I hope they stick with.

They also need to work out what they are doing with Cox. He shows glimpses but seems like a man without a position. If Reid isn't going to be reliable at CHB with his injuries then maybe that's the spot?

If Goodwin opens the team up then the Dees should finish top 4-6.

I think the Saints will be in that 7th-10th bracket again.

Essendon are honestly an enigma. They could go on a run and make top 4 or have the bottom fall out and drop to the 12-16 range. I can't confidently rate them above the other two at this stage.

Essendon had a few significant issues last year

Couldn’t transition the ball quickly and cleanly. Some by lack of skill some by coaches plans

Too small at contest through the midfield and would just get overpowered my most good teams. Have talent that amplifies its weaknesses.

Couldn’t take a contested mark on the wing to save their lives.

Couldn’t maintain forward pressure as forwards were slow an unfit/injured)

I think they will be better without Stringer. Only averaged 1.7 goals a game and likely gave up more than that with his lacklustre defensive efforts.

I think their forward like will be fine without Jake. Draper looked okay at FF in a Billy Frampton esque way.

Good teams kick about 300 goals and I think there’s a pathway there if everything goes right.

Langford, (40-50) Caddy and Draper (FF) get 100
Gresham, Perkins, Kako, Harry Jones and Martin get another 100 (average about 20 each)

That leaves Merrett Caldwell, Durham, Dursma, Tsatas Bryan, Parish and Redman to need to average about 1/2 a goal a game to hit that mark.

Defensive effort and intent will be more interesting. Hopefully selection pressure helps with that. As does better depth helping them to not drop off as badly when injury hits.

Edit: think they finish in the 8-12 range but could go anywhere

Saints: good transition team but don’t trust their onball group. Ended last season strong. Can score on anyone. Same middle of the pack

Melbourne: since Essendon have your FRP I’m bias in hoping you have a bad year. Club still seems a mess.

If everything goes right could win the flag. If everything goes wrong again bottom 4

 

[L_W_P]

Essendon had a few significant issues last year

Couldn’t transition the ball quickly and cleanly. Some by lack of skill some by coaches plans

Too small at contest through the midfield and would just get overpowered my most good teams. Have talent that amplifies its weaknesses.

Couldn’t take a contested mark on the wing to save their lives.

Couldn’t maintain forward pressure as forwards were slow an unfit/injured)

I think they will be better without Stringer. Only averaged 1.7 goals a game and likely gave up more than that with his lacklustre defensive efforts.

I think their forward like will be fine without Jake. Draper looked okay at FF in a Billy Frampton esque way.

Good teams kick about 300 goals and I think there’s a pathway there if everything goes right.

Langford, (40-50) Caddy and Draper (FF) get 100
Gresham, Perkins, Kako, Harry Jones and Martin get another 100 (average about 20 each)

That leaves Merrett Caldwell, Durham, Dursma, Tsatas Bryan, Parish and Redman to need to average about 1/2 a goal a game to hit that mark.

Defensive effort and intent will be more interesting. Hopefully selection pressure helps with that. As does better depth helping them to not drop off as badly when injury hits.

Edit: think they finish in the 8-12 range but could go anywhere

Saints: good transition team but don’t trust their onball group. Ended last season strong. Can score on anyone. Same middle of the pack

Melbourne: since Essendon have your FRP I’m bias in hoping you have a bad year. Club still seems a mess.

If everything goes right could win the flag. If everything goes wrong again bottom 4

Jones, Gresham, Martin & Langford the only players close to the sort of output you're after.

Wright/Draper at FF, the clutch of smalls, a huge burden on Caddy to replace Stringer.

Would need a huge jump from some players to hit those goal targets.

 

[jdstorm]

Jones, Gresham, Martin & Langford the only players close to the sort of output you're after.

Wright/Draper at FF, the clutch of smalls, a huge burden on Caddy to replace Stringer.

Would need a huge jump from some players to hit those goal targets.

View attachment 2209009

Wright finished last season in the VFl so I’m penciling him in for 0 right now. So that’s 60 goals needed to replace.

For sure.
However there are good explanations for those expected jumps.

Say Langford kicks 50 (was hurt last year has done it before)

Draper has primarily been playing ruck and rucks don’t normally kick that many goals. Last season after moving to FF he kicked 9 goals his final 8 games (on a bad team) so that’s on pace for 25 in a season.

Caddy played 10 games last year as a first year player and kicked 9 goals. If he plays a full season that’s 21-22 goals without any improvement. But as a top 10 pick in his second year you can expect improvement. Id be suprised if he didn’t kick 25+

Of the 5x20 club you said Gresham, Martin, Jones was reasonable.

Last year Perkins kicked 5 goals playing more midfield but the two years before that 18 and 16 goals at HHF. Kako is a wildcard as a new player but as a highly touted SF just under a goal a game seems reasonable. Guelfi averaged 1.1 goals a game last season so there’s some scope there should Kako not start as well as we hope.

A lot will depend on how Essendon goes in transition as they were among the worst teams in the competition. But just based on overall talent/positional play I think those numbers are within scope of reasonable optimism

 

[Beerfish]

Oh this is a juicy thread maybe.

Hopefully us but..

 

[Chief Hopper]

Melbourne's biggest issue is the coach/game plan. If Goodwin sticks to his guns I think it'll be another down year for that group who are clearly screaming out for a change in approach.

For the Saints the issue is execution. People will bag Lyon but the Saints moved the footy as fast and effectively as anyone the last few years but fell down horribly once the ball went inside 50. If they can work out getting the most out of King, without sending all of their entries through him, they should improve.

I honestly don't know what Essendon's issue is. On paper they seem to have the talent. In 2024 they were sitting top 4 well into the season and then just... nothing. Losing 30-40 goals from Stinger hurts. I don't think they have a single player that will replace that volume so they'll look to Moneyball it between Caddy, Kako, Gresham & Langford.

The improvement probably comes from their talls forward of centre.

What's the mix with Draper/Bryan/Goldstein?

Is Peter Wright capable of holding down FF effectively or does he need to be getting ruck time as well?

Harry Jones off the wing, pushing forward for a mismatch, was an interesting move that I hope they stick with.

They also need to work out what they are doing with Cox. He shows glimpses but seems like a man without a position. If Reid isn't going to be reliable at CHB with his injuries then maybe that's the spot?

If Goodwin opens the team up then the Dees should finish top 4-6.

I think the Saints will be in that 7th-10th bracket again.

Essendon are honestly an enigma. They could go on a run and make top 4 or have the bottom fall out and drop to the 12-16 range. I can't confidently rate them above the other two at this stage.

I would sum up Essendon as a young playing list. It's the 4th youngest in the comp now.
It's not a playing list that is at, or past, it's peak. It's not a playing list full of mature players ready for a finals tilt.
We didn't play that bad last year, but as the last couple years have shown these young players tire out later in the season and the losses pile on.

On topic, Melb needs to make the most of its mature list this year, they should be a bit ahead of these three. However if a couple of their key players like trac and clarry are injured, their team just doesn't have coverage.
Saints were decimated with injuries last year, their team makeup should be top 8. Yet I'd think missing Battle would be a setback. How do they cover those saving intercept marks.

What we have here is 3 teams in transition. Melb seemingly on the way down. Saints on the way up, Dons a little bit further behind that.
Based on the fixture and age profile, we should see Melb, Saints then Dons.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

I would sum up Essendon as a young playing list. It's the 4th youngest in the comp now.
It's not a playing list that is at, or past, it's peak. It's not a playing list full of mature players ready for a finals tilt.
We didn't play that bad last year, but as the last couple years have shown these young players tire out later in the season and the losses pile on.

On topic, Melb needs to make the most of its mature list this year, they should be a bit ahead of these three. However if a couple of their key players like trac and clarry are injured, their team just doesn't have coverage.
Saints were decimated with injuries last year, their team makeup should be top 8. Yet I'd think missing Battle would be a setback. How do they cover those saving intercept marks.

What we have here is 3 teams in transition. Melb seemingly on the way down. Saints on the way up, Dons a little bit further behind that.
Based on the fixture and age profile, we should see Melb, Saints then Dons.

Very fair assessment.

Melbourne could very well be on the way down in the coming years but haven't neglected the draft (four top 12 picks in the last two drafts) and have some good young talent coming through with the likes of JVR, Rivers, McVee and Windsor.

 

[Chief Hopper]

Very fair assessment.

Melbourne could very well be on the way down in the coming years but haven't neglected the draft (four top 12 picks in the last two drafts) and have some good young talent coming through with the likes of JVR, Rivers, McVee and Windsor.

Its the nature of the game hey.
Melb could steady the list, there's a lot there to work with.

Similarly Geelong played awful with Dangerfield out injured last year. Though they got Bailey Smith in now, presumably so they dont have to wait for their next crop of players to get up to speed.

 

[L_W_P]

I would sum up Essendon as a young playing list. It's the 4th youngest in the comp now.
It's not a playing list that is at, or past, it's peak. It's not a playing list full of mature players ready for a finals tilt.
We didn't play that bad last year, but as the last couple years have shown these young players tire out later in the season and the losses pile on.

On topic, Melb needs to make the most of its mature list this year, they should be a bit ahead of these three. However if a couple of their key players like trac and clarry are injured, their team just doesn't have coverage.
Saints were decimated with injuries last year, their team makeup should be top 8. Yet I'd think missing Battle would be a setback. How do they cover those saving intercept marks.

What we have here is 3 teams in transition. Melb seemingly on the way down. Saints on the way up, Dons a little bit further behind that.
Based on the fixture and age profile, we should see Melb, Saints then Dons.

All well summed up.

I rekon there's a bit of a misconception re: Essendon after they went for McKay & Gresham as 'win now' players vs development of the Davey boys and Hayes/Reid at defence.

The big call now is what they do with Draper and that F50 setup.

The Saints were keen on Draper a couple of years ago but with Boyd as a ready made option and the hype around Dodson predraft they might not be as keen anymore.

The Crows talks lingers as well. ROB is a love him or hate him type, just like Draper, but their styles are VERY different.

If Nick Bryan is the guy to take the #1 ruck role then cashing in on Draper might be worth looking into.

All that said: The Bombers were top 4 late into last season. So the potential is absolutely there.

 

[Frank Thring]

This is a very difficult exercise as its hard to put where all 3 clubs are at this year.

Melbourne definately has the talent to make finals but it does depend on Oliver recapturing his best form and Gawn to continue to dominate, although he is ageing. Same with May who i thought tapered off last year and he is 33 now. I do like Van Rooyen up forward and I'd like to see Petty go back to the backline. Their midfield is quality with Oliver, Petracca, Sparrow and Rivers but probably need to find another couple. I may have missed a player or two.

The Saints are also difficult to gauge, some of their performances late last year was excellent and they do have some quality kids like Pou, NWM, Windhager, Owens and Wilson plus a couple of kids they drafted this year but they won't help much in 2025. My concern for the Saints is their forward line, they rely on their medium forwards a lot so will need King to have a very good year to make finals. I really like the addition of McCrae as it will free up Steele and allow Sinclair to dominate in his best position at half back.

Essendon I feel will finish below Melbourne and the Saints because they are rebuilding and their list is fairly young now. They still have some quality senior.players in Ridley, Durham, Martin, Merret, Caldwell and Parish but lack quality big men so they need Reid to stay fit, Wright to recapture form and Caddy to come on quickly which is a big ask but I do like him as a player.

So after all that I think Melbourne will finish 5th to 9th, Saints 7th to 11th and Bomber 10th to 15th.

Will be interesting to see how the three teams go this year.

 

[FootyGuru]

Yet, you’ll fluff up your draft picks as is the Essendon way

How the pies gone in the draft? Remove fs and academy it’s pretty bleak.

 

[Matrix10]

How the pies gone in the draft? Remove fs and academy it’s pretty bleak.

We don’t have the luxury of top draft picks , you know finishing high and all that , been a destination club , we trade in and top up

 

[FootyGuru]

We don’t have the luxury of top draft picks , you know finishing high and all that , been a destination club , we trade in and top up

Take away the fs how high would the pies be finishing? Very lucky era for the pies

 

[Nvent]

We don’t have the luxury of top draft picks , you know finishing high and all that , been a destination club , we trade in and top up

You traded your early picks

 

[Matrix10]

You traded your early picks

Early . Welcome Houston. Perryman.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

This is a very difficult exercise as its hard to put where all 3 clubs are at this year.

Melbourne definately has the talent to make finals but it does depend on Oliver recapturing his best form and Gawn to continue to dominate, although he is ageing. Same with May who i thought tapered off last year and he is 33 now. I do like Van Rooyen up forward and I'd like to see Petty go back to the backline. Their midfield is quality with Oliver, Petracca, Sparrow and Rivers but probably need to find another couple. I may have missed a player or two.

The Saints are also difficult to gauge, some of their performances late last year was excellent and they do have some quality kids like Pou, NWM, Windhager, Owens and Wilson plus a couple of kids they drafted this year but they won't help much in 2025. My concern for the Saints is their forward line, they rely on their medium forwards a lot so will need King to have a very good year to make finals. I really like the addition of McCrae as it will free up Steele and allow Sinclair to dominate in his best position at half back.

Essendon I feel will finish below Melbourne and the Saints because they are rebuilding and their list is fairly young now. They still have some quality senior.players in Ridley, Durham, Martin, Merret, Caldwell and Parish but lack quality big men so they need Reid to stay fit, Wright to recapture form and Caddy to come on quickly which is a big ask but I do like him as a player.

So after all that I think Melbourne will finish 5th to 9th, Saints 7th to 11th and Bomber 10th to 15th.

Will be interesting to see how the three teams go this year.

Essendon rebuilding? They've been 'rebuilding' for the last decade. That nonsense is supposed to work on delusional club members, not opposition supporters.

They are not as young as the misleading average list age stat suggests. Only Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney had a more experienced actual playing list last year. They only debuted two new players while four experienced recruits played - that's generally not how a rebuild works.

They have dropped their relative average age down because they got rid of some older list cloggers who have already been replaced and replaced them with draftees. Getting rid of a fat, undisciplined Stringer doesn't mean you are 'rebuilding'.

They will have plenty of experience and will have no excuses if Brad Scott can't move up the ladder with a relatively talented list.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Melbourne have the best list of the 3 so probably them.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Essendon are not as young as the misleading average list age stat suggests.

If anything it's misleading but in the opposite way. Goldstein (36), Laverde (29), Shiel (32) are preferably back-ups and not first choice.

They only debuted two new players

Most of the youth in our side have already debuted in their positions in years prior. Of course there's going to be less the more you've already done.

They have dropped their relative average age down because they got rid of some older players and replaced them with draftees.

What else are we going to replace them with? Moonrocks?

Getting rid of a fat, undisciplined Stringer doesn't mean you are 'rebuilding'.

Nice word gymnastics. Kicked more than 40 goals. What does it signify? The balls to take action in the face of what we'd usually do at the cost of a likely hit to our status quo.

They will have plenty of experience

16th on the ladder at 23.9 for average age, and that's with Goldstein and Laverde on the list. Turn it up.

Fact is we're the youngest and least experienced that we've been for a long time and will suffer the consequence of that when it comes to 2025 but most level headed supporters aren't fussed about that as it is for the best.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

The past decade has nothing to do with the last couple of years.



If anything it's misleading but in the opposite way.

Goldstein is a back-up, Laverde doesn't play if Reid or Ridley aren't injured, Shiel hasn't been best 22 for years.

When it comes to who we'd prefer to play as opposed to necessity, the best 22 is a lot younger on average than last year. We also have more depth in the form of youth in those positions.

Most teams play older players because they're first choice elite players, ours were fill-ins due to injury or as a result of still finding the right position for a less experienced player.



What a dumb take. Most of the youth on our list bar the ones we just drafted have already debuted in years prior. Teams with more youth than others will have less debut as years go by compared to older teams with incoming retirees due to the simple logical fact that the more you debut previously the less will.



Another dumb take. What else are we going to replace them with? Moonrocks?



No one said it did. Our rebuild began when we were coming out of the dumpster fire that was the end of 2022. From the list, to the culture to all the way to the regime/staff, it's been overhauled since.

What does getting rid of Stringer signify? The balls to take action opposite to what we're used to. Most teams expected us to keep a player who mind you kicked 40+ and is generating talks of an improvement to GWS' forward line, but we did the opposite. That signifies that we're prioritising a future plan at the cost of a likely hit to our status quo.



16th on the ladder at 23.9 for average age and that's with Goldstein and Laverde on the list. Turn it up!

Fact is we're the youngest and least experienced that we've been for a long time and will suffer the consequence of that when it comes to 2025, but most level headed supporters aren't fussed as it is for the best when it comes to the years ahead.

I'm not reading all this nonsense. Average list age is an almost useless stat without further context. You either understand why, or you don't. I'm not going to hold your hand and walk you through it.

You have enough experience on the list to make a serious run at finals, just as you did in 2024. This bollocks 'rebuilding' narrative is just a pre-excuse in the case of failure.

And I am quite bullish that Essendon will make the finals this year, and it won't be because of some fake 'baby bombers' miracle.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Saints not having much luck on injury front this pre season it seems

 

[voorhees]

essendon = cant trust
saints = not ready yet
dee's = for the win

 

[TheUnicorn]

Saints not having much luck on injury front this pre season it seems

I really liked how they finished the season, but with an already iffy midfield and the loss of Marshall, Pou, Crouch, Dow and not to mention Battle (who I think is super underrated), they're going to struggle early in the season. They could possibly start 1-5.