Prediction Who's poised to be the disappointment/let down team of 2024?

[Jirik13]

Can you share some of the surprising moves with us?

Let's wait for actual line-up against GWS practice but yesterday on A team Sexton played as HB, Tsitas looks like best 22 as a small forward, Macpherson also forward, Fiorini wing. Andrew was not on A team but I expect he will be. It looks like Budarick and Uwland are in the best 22 in defence. Day was also on A team (ahead of Casboult).

 

[Guardian Hawk]

My interpretation is based on expectation from BF and media pundits.
I think hawks will improve and win a few more games
(2 teams were btm 6 in 2023 with 10 wins)
From what I read though the general consensus is hawks will be in the middle 6 which i don’t see happening

I think most Hawthorn supporters are in the same boat - looking for improvement and about 10 or so wins.

Last season was an anomaly in 10 wins resulting in bottom 6 though (usually 10 wins would be in the 10th-12th bracket which would be lower end of the middle 6). I think 10th-16th is the expectation of most Hawthorn supporters.

Already having 5 pretty important best 22 players out (plus two of the preferred back ups) makes it harder.

Those being:

Will Day - reigning best and fairest winner and our classiest mid.
Dylan Moore - vice captain, important link between mid and forward and our best pressure player
James Blanck - no world beater but super important structurally at FB, with our KPD stocks our thinnest area.
C Jiath - good line breaker (but I think Weddle has been doing a decent job in a similar role)
Chad Wingard - classy small forward but some new options (Ginnivan, Watson + Hardwick to the forward line)

Seamus Mitchell and Bailey McDonald were two emerging options to take Hardwick's spot in the backline but both of them have also picked up injuries.

 

[Jatz]

The question I have at this time of year is does anyone actually think their own side might slide this year?

It's peak optimism in February and 99% of fans expect their side to stay the same or improve and we all know that can't happen.

So does anyone think their own club will slide this season?

I think we'll be fine but it's entirely possible.

Our horror stretch last year was truly awful. Can't afford to go through patches like that again.

 

[wizzard400]

I've already got a bet going with someone but I reckon NMFC will finish above Hawthorn this year.

Okay, I’ll bite, why will North finish above Hawthorn this year?

 

[Macca19]

Port

 

[Walter H White]

Yep. Sammy Mitchell is a conman who has convinced the supporters that regression is okay and it’ll all just happen eventually because Hawks.

The talk of finals is ridiculous.

I don't think he's a conman. He made the difficult but I would argue necessary decison to fully and unconditionally commit to rebuilding a team that was in a malaise post-Clarkson.

In doing so, his team is extremely young and inconsistent, but to my eyes, progress is being made. Compare Hawthorn's back half to first half of 2023. I haven't run the numbers but I recall very good wins over Collingwood and Brisbane, as well as more competitive performances and fewer blowouts. There have and will be the occasional shocker. I remember the Port game they were taught a lesson in the first half, but actually recovered pretty well in the second half.

I think it's probably more likely that Hawthorn are bottom four again than nipping at the heels of the top 8 (I had them 15th this year), but even if they finish in roughly the same position as last year, that doesn't mean they can't improve. I envisage that the ladder will be very even again this year (perhaps even moreso than last year) and a couple of wins might be the difference between a "good" and "bad" ladder position.

What I have seen from Mitchell is a tactically astute coach who is willing to take risks and not blindly follow the status quo (which I think 90% of AFL coaches do). He is willing to make some mistakes and learn from them. I didn't particularly like him as a player (although I definitely rated him highly), but I think he is a very talented coach and a good fit for this young Hawks team.

 

[Walter H White]

Without doubt the team that will let the most football supporters down this season is Richmond Tigers FC. Approximately 9.2 million opposition fans are praying, hoping and have talked themselves into expecting the "once" mighty Tigers to finalise their ladder positioning within the bottom 4. Come the end of the season they gunna be:

It will probably be better for you to properly bottom out and get some high draft picks than finish just outside the 8. There's no shame in doing so after a long period of sustained success.

 

[Chadwiko]

Okay, I’ll bite, why will North finish above Hawthorn this year?

This is all my subjective opinion, but;

1. Hawthorn over-achieved last year
2. North are further ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild, and should now be seeing some sustained improvement
3. Hawthorn's list is in a bad way, and may have the worst defense in the AFL (North aren't much better in this regard, for what it's worth)
4. Even before yesterday's injuries, it was my opinion that Hawthorn were the team in the AFL that was least prepared to cover any injuries to key players
5. I think Hawthorn's 'top' players are very, very over-rated by Hawk fans

I've said it before (and copped abuse from Hawk fans for it) but I think 2024 is going to be the massive bottoming-out year for Hawthorn, and starting next year is when you'll start to rebuild properly out of it.

You'll likely disagree. That's fine.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The question I have at this time of year is does anyone actually think their own side might slide this year?

It's peak optimism in February and 99% of fans expect their side to stay the same or improve and we all know that can't happen.

So does anyone think their own club will slide this season?

Its hard to do given the depths of 2020-2023, but I think with a complete lack of proven defence for much of the year and Logue likely not fully fit when back (earlier than originally thought, but nobody is truly right after too long a layoff; with support around its not always a big deal).
The presumed natural improvement in the attacking side of the younger midfielders will quite likely be outweighed by extra goals conceded. Keeping players whose contract runs out this year, if they don't sign early, could be a real problem.

 

[bradfisher14]

Carlton are clearly being built up by the media to be a disappointment.

For me, I see Adelaide and Sydney as being the disappointments this season. I think it's a season too soon for the Crows and their key back stocks are a worry. As for Sydney, the loss of Paddy McCartin will hurt and I can't believe the hype that Adams and Grundy are getting. People are talking about them like they're going to transform the team. Grundy will be an upgrade for them, but the reality is he was playing VFL when it mattered last year. Adams was getting pushed out to a half forward flank for a reason. I suspect that he would've missed the Grand Final even if he was fit.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It will probably be better for you to properly bottom out and get some high draft picks than finish just outside the 8. There's no shame in doing so after a long period of sustained success.

Richmond won't be thinking like that. They will try to win every game they can until or unless it becomes evident finals are not happening, then they will think more about the future both in terms of playing younger players and gaining good draft picks. There remains a lot of very high calibre players at the club, including quite a few who are right at the sharp end for their positions/roles: Lynch, Martin, Bolton, D Rioli, Short, Vlastuin. I wonder how many teams will have at least 6 players so close to the top across the AFL for their roles? I haven't put any thought into it but I doubt the list of clubs runs really deep.

Matches Lynch played in 2022-23 and was not injured early, Richmond went 13w-1d-7l. The losses were:

• interstate away final by under a goal
• v 2022 Premier Geelong by under 1 goal
• v 2021 Premier early in the 22 season v Melbourne by 22 points
• v Crows in Adelaide by 19 points in the 33 v 13 free kick game
• Early season games 2022 at Docklands v Saints by 33, and Rd 1 v Blues by 25
• v 2023 Premier Collingwood by 14 points

Wins against:

• Pies(top 4) in 2022 by 27
• Lions(top 4) in 2022 by 7
• and a host of competitive teams, Carlton, Dogs, GWS, Power, Crows(2023).

So the club has more than held its own when Lynch has played and if he is anywhere near right, he alone will make a big difference in 2024. Obviously Dusty's output has improved very sharply towards the end of that 2022/23 sample as well, so there are some reasons to be mildly optimistic in 2024.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Carlton are clearly being built up by the media to be a disappointment.

For me, I see Adelaide and Sydney as being the disappointments this season. I think it's a season too soon for the Crows and their key back stocks are a worry. As for Sydney, the loss of Paddy McCartin will hurt and I can't believe the hype that Adams and Grundy are getting. People are talking about them like they're going to transform the team. Grundy will be an upgrade for them, but the reality is he was playing VFL when it mattered last year. Adams was getting pushed out to a half forward flank for a reason. I suspect that he would've missed the Grand Final even if he was fit.

You are dramatically under-rating the acquisition of Taylor Adams there imo. He has a pretty decent big game record and should allow Mills to be deployed in defence, where he is a very strong asset for the Swans.

Grundy is a big upgrade on the rucks the Swans have been putting on the paddock, this can only help them.

There are so many teams for whom the season could go really well or not so well just depending on a few injuries or a bit of luck here and there. Crows and Swans are certainly two of those teams.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Disappointment is a team falling backwards significantly, so it looks like Collingwood, Brisbane, Port or Carlton I think.

A lot of people are already writing Melbourne off, so it'll hardly be a disappointment.

Of the rest, a drop away wouldn't be much of a disappointment. Perhaps the Giants.

 

[wizzard400]

This is all my subjective opinion, but;

1. Hawthorn over-achieved last year
2. North are further ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild, and should now be seeing some sustained improvement
3. Hawthorn's list is in a bad way, and may have the worst defense in the AFL (North aren't much better in this regard, for what it's worth)
4. Even before yesterday's injuries, it was my opinion that Hawthorn were the team in the AFL that was least prepared to cover any injuries to key players
5. I think Hawthorn's 'top' players are very, very over-rated by Hawk fans

I've said it before (and copped abuse from Hawk fans for it) but I think 2024 is going to be the massive bottoming-out year for Hawthorn, and starting next year is when you'll start to rebuild properly out of it.

You'll likely disagree. That's fine.

Tell me you didn’t watch Hawthorn last year without telling me you didn’t watch Hawthorn last year…

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

More than a bit.

Forward line lacks depth and experience and Brown & McDonald are finished. Midfield has a question mark with Oliver, defense has issues too with an aging May.

I'm actually surprised we're not mentioned more

Certainly don't disagree that Dees look a risk for a significant slide down the ladder. However given their issues have received a lot of attention, i wouldn't say it would be be a major surprise or 'let-down' if it does come to pass.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Disappointment is a team falling backwards significantly, so it looks like Collingwood, Brisbane, Port or Carlton I think.

A lot of people are already writing Melbourne off, so it'll hardly be a disappointment.

Of the rest, a drop away wouldn't be much of a disappointment. Perhaps the Giants.

Yes I think the Giants most likely fit the bill of the OP. Not really knocking them, it's just that they performed so far above consensus expectations last season that it creates a doubt whether they can maintain that level. Of course a Giants fan might reasonably say that consensus was ill informed and there is no rational basis for assuming they can't perform at the same level as last season.

 

[smish]

I've already got a bet going with someone but I reckon NMFC will finish above Hawthorn this year.

Can I take you on a bet for that too please? My account v yours?

 

[Walter H White]

Richmond won't be thinking like that. They will try to win every game they can until or unless it becomes evident finals are not happening, then they will think more about the future both in terms of playing younger players and gaining good draft picks. There remains a lot of very high calibre players at the club, including quite a few who are right at the sharp end for their positions/roles: Lynch, Martin, Bolton, D Rioli, Short, Vlastuin. I wonder how many teams will have at least 6 players so close to the top across the AFL for their roles? I haven't put any thought into it but I doubt the list of clubs runs really deep.

Matches Lynch played in 2022-23 and was not injured early, Richmond went 13w-1d-7l. The losses were:

• interstate away final by under a goal
• v 2022 Premier Geelong by under 1 goal
• v 2021 Premier early in the 22 season v Melbourne by 22 points
• v Crows in Adelaide by 19 points in the 33 v 13 free kick game
• Early season games 2022 at Docklands v Saints by 33, and Rd 1 v Blues by 25
• v 2023 Premier Collingwood by 14 points

Wins against:

• Pies(top 4) in 2022 by 27
• Lions(top 4) in 2022 by 7
• and a host of competitive teams, Carlton, Dogs, GWS, Power, Crows(2023).

So the club has more than held its own when Lynch has played and if he is anywhere near right, he alone will make a big difference in 2024. Obviously Dusty's output has improved very sharply towards the end of that 2022/23 sample as well, so there are some reasons to be mildly optimistic in 2024.

I don't personally think Richmond will be as bad as some people are making out. But like you said, much depends on how much you get out of Lynch. He is the key.

 

[bradfisher14]

You are dramatically under-rating the acquisition of Taylor Adams there imo. He has a pretty decent big game record and should allow Mills to be deployed in defence, where he is a very strong asset for the Swans.

No doubt he was a good big game player. That was a while ago and his legs are gone now. You have to look at what a player is now rather than their previous reputation imo. Mills is a gun in the midfield, they need him in there, and he will stay there for the rest of his prime. They have enough half back types to cover.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No doubt he was a good big game player. That was a while ago and his legs are gone now. You have to look at what a player is now rather than their previous reputation imo. Mills is a gun in the midfield, they need him in there, and he will stay there for the rest of his prime. They have enough half back types to cover.

Will be interesting to see, but I thought Collingwood were a superior team with Adams playing in 2023 compared to when he missed. His numbers were certainly very tidy for a player playing ahead of the ball mostly. He isn't a top echelon mid but he is a strong physical presence and is only just 30yo. To my way of thinking he was one of Collingwood's top 10 players and his absence was felt in finals and he should be more than useful for Sydney for a couple of seasons at least.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Easy answer. Just move on to 2025

IMO, Suns will probably miss finals as it could take some some to implement a new plan and Dimma assesses the list. So far, some surprising players moves in intra club simulations.

I see your point but the first 10 games of Fremantle 2012 under Lyon had some horrible results with confused players that didn't seem to have a clue, and we still stormed home and made finals. I can see Dimma on a similar trajectory with a talented list - some shocking football in the first half of the year but getting it right by the second half. I don't think it will take him a year

 

[TheKanga]

Think Demons might only make lower reaches of the Top 8.

 

[Joao]

Surely the Demons don't count given everyone has given up on them already based on media reporting and posters on here.

It has to be a team that is either not expected to drop or a team that is expected to rise. Most obvious candidates are:

Pies
Lions
Port
Carlton
Crows
GWS

Maybe Sydney but they don't seem to have as much of a bull market as the 6 above.

 

[liz]

Yes I think the Giants most likely fit the bill of the OP. Not really knocking them, it's just that they performed so far above consensus expectations last season that it creates a doubt whether they can maintain that level. Of course a Giants fan might reasonably say that consensus was ill informed and there is no rational basis for assuming they can't perform at the same level as last season.

Similar thought were aired about Collingwood this time last year and look where that ended up.

Of course, just because Collingwood were able to sustain their ways (and improve a bit) doesn’t mean that GWS will follow the same path.

I think the thread question is hard to answer because a lot will pivot on injuries.

 

[Blackhawk42]

This is all my subjective opinion, but;

1. Hawthorn over-achieved last year
2. North are further ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild, and should now be seeing some sustained improvement
3. Hawthorn's list is in a bad way, and may have the worst defense in the AFL (North aren't much better in this regard, for what it's worth)
4. Even before yesterday's injuries, it was my opinion that Hawthorn were the team in the AFL that was least prepared to cover any injuries to key players
5. I think Hawthorn's 'top' players are very, very over-rated by Hawk fans

I've said it before (and copped abuse from Hawk fans for it) but I think 2024 is going to be the massive bottoming-out year for Hawthorn, and starting next year is when you'll start to rebuild properly out of it.

You'll likely disagree. That's fine.

Opinions and opinions. So, whatever.

But you'll get necessary feedback on this list.

1. Okay sure, may have over achieved. Zero issue with anybody believing this.

2. What evidence do you have for this? Why are North further ahead in the rebuild? Because there are more first round draftees on the list? It can't be results based, so I'm genuinely curious.

3. Sorry, WHAT? Can you provide some reasoning as to why it's the worst list in the AFL?
As for the defensive end, North Melbourne are going into 2024 with quite possibly the weakest back 6 in the history of AFL football, relative to their time period. Logue being injured is bad luck, but there are zero reliable replacements ready after McKay left. Strange comment.

4. That's fine. You don't rate our depth. Box Hill made a preliminary final on the back of some great performances from our fringe players. But sure.

5. Who are you talking about exactly?
Jai Newcombe who was top 20 in the coaches votes and Brownlow and made the All Australian squad?
James Sicily, who Marcus Bontempelli said was the one opposition player he'd want at the Bulldogs?
Will Day who played his first season of midfield and won our best and fairest?
Josh Weddle who has people outside of Hawthorn rating him as a potential top 10 player in the game?
Mitch Lewis, who is at the elite end for tall forwards on goal per game average? (Needs more continuity in his body, I'm b happy to admit).
Luke Breust, who is an all time small forward for overall goals, consistency and durability?




I'd just love a more detailed explanation for these opinions is all, considering the majority of them appear to be held by you, and at best, a small minority.