Why do People presume that Carlton is 2-3 years ahead of Essendon?

[AndyLucimitis]

neither will make the 8 in 2010

essendon will be bottom 5, blues on the fringe of the 8

calrton will however at least start to develop a forward line not reliant on 1 player which will hold them in good stead from 2011 and beyond as we know they have a sensational midfield. once kreuzer develops as a key forward and warnock as a ruckman i am in fact very concerned at how good the blues might become

I'm liking the sound of this - hope you are right.

If you are, I promise to say something nice about Collingwood

 

[bombermick]

I would also say Carlton's top-end talent is clearly better than Essendon's. Essendon don't have the quality of Judd, Gibbs and Murphy across the park, not including some emerging youngsters. But, I think Essendon are clearly a more even side, with greater depth. If you listed the Essendon and Carlton sides from the best to worst player, Carlton would win the top 5 easily, but the players from 10-38 would see Essendon on top.

 

[Slattery_20]

Maybe but he's a second year player and was recruited to play defence. While he will play forward at times next year and is clearly a star of the future it will be a big ask to get him to hold down CHF all season in his second year of league footy. He'll play both ends but defence is an easier place to learn the trade.

Hurley's spot depends on the other guys like Daniher and Hooker as well.
You say it's a big ask for a 2nd year to hold down CHF all season - in reality it's either going to be a 2nd year who's shown some form, or one of two 3rd years (Darcy or Gumbie) who've not got on the park much.
So I'd say it's fairly likely that Hurley will get decent game time up forward.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Hurley's spot depends on the other guys like Daniher and Hooker as well.
You say it's a big ask for a 2nd year to hold down CHF all season - in reality it's either going to be a 2nd year who's shown some form, or one of two 3rd years (Darcy or Gumbie) who've not got on the park much.
So I'd say it's fairly likely that Hurley will get decent game time up forward.

Which is exactly why I said that athough Essendons forward line is better than Carlton's, its still no great shakes.

You dont yet have an established forward - and that includes some of the crumbers - in your 22.

(Personally I reckon you'd have been wise to pick up Leigh Brown last year as an added bash and crash player who can protect the younger talls. Instead you went for Skipworth. Water under the bridge now of course...)

 

[bombermick]

Which is exactly why I said that athough Essendons forward line is better than Carlton's, its still no great shakes.

You dont yet have an established forward - and that includes some of the crumbers - in your 22.

(Personally I reckon you'd have been wise to pick up Leigh Brown last year as an added bash and crash player who can protect the younger talls. Instead you went for Skipworth. Water under the bridge now of course...)

Is Williams a proven forward? If he can get back to anything like his '08 form (or even better pre-Buddy form) he will be the recruit of the year. If not, hopefully Monfries can keep improving. Carlton fans are welcome to lay a little wager with me. I'm confident that Essendon will finish ahead of Carlton next year. Any takers? God I love this rivalry.

 

[Smyth94]

Maybe but he's a second year player and was recruited to play defence. While he will play forward at times next year and is clearly a star of the future it will be a big ask to get him to hold down CHF all season in his second year of league footy. He'll play both ends but defence is an easier place to learn the trade.

Yeah he's a second year player but so what? If you've got the talent, application and size it doesn't matter - look at Pears, who would've thought he'd become our FB after just playing 5 games in his first season. Hurley isn't your average skinny KPP who needs a few seasons to build up his body etc. He's already a massive lad (193cm, 93kg)

I think people are getting too hung up on the whole "Hurley was recruited as defender" throwaway line. Wasn't Jack Anthony recruited as a defender too?

Anyway, Hurley has too much talent to be played in the backline especially when we have players like Hooker and Daniher, heck even Gumbleton can play there because as you said, it is an easier place to learn the trade and Gumby has shown little as a forward, at least Hurley has shown he can influence games as a forward.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

At least Essendon supporters have these names to throw about, even if they may be a year or so ahead of themselves.

Carlton could only dream of having some kpp's to be excited about. They sold the farm to get Judd and now they've been forced to sack Fevola.

 

[Falchoon]

I would also say Carlton's top-end talent is clearly better than Essendon's. Essendon don't have the quality of Judd, Gibbs and Murphy across the park, not including some emerging youngsters. But, I think Essendon are clearly a more even side, with greater depth. If you listed the Essendon and Carlton sides from the best to worst player, Carlton would win the top 5 easily, but the players from 10-38 would see Essendon on top.

The issue with Carlton is all of their talent is loaded in the midfield, that can be good and bad but both their forwardline and backline look incredibly weak.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Despite their terrible record against us, Carlton clearly have the better midfield and it will be improved next year. Judd, Murphy and Gibbs plus McLean is very handy at worst. Essendon's mid of Jobe plus his bunch of merry men doesn't come close.

You made some sense here, well done.

On the other hand, Essendon's strength is clearly its KPP stocks. There is Pears, who is one of the best young full-backs in the game. Ryder, who will form a very good ruck partnership and Gumbleton who hopefully can get on the park. That's not mentioning Hurley, who fingers crossed will become the best young KPP in the land.

While I believe Hurley will be a great player there is a lot of hoping and finger crossing there. How's Pears going to go once Fletcher isnt there to be his 3rd man up?

To dismiss Carlton's KPP's are after posting what you did is a bit too one-eyed. Waite fully fit would have Nick Maxwell's All Australian spot in the backline, or would be a 50 goal forward (which is where I believe he will be in 2010). Henderson has massive wraps and will be our other KP forward, but even I have question marks. Carlton has four VERY capable KP defenders in Jamison, Austin, Bower and Thornton and our young ruck stocks are as good as anyone's.

I think the eight will probably stay the same as last year, with Hawthorn coming in. West Coast will finish 9-10 and both Carlton and Essendon will struggle, Carlton because of the loss of Fev and Essendon with a tough draw. Essendon WILL finish ahead of Carlton.

Obviously this is a post by a casual AFL fan as the 8 rarely stays the same. No-one knows what Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Hawthorn will do in 2010 - each one of them has a good case for both a top 4 and even a bottom 4 finish. Injuries will also play a huge part (St Kilda's luck has to run out) as well as the age of a club's list (Geelong defenders losing a step..?).

 

[munckz]

I believe carlton may be 1 or 2yrs ahead of essendon, it's really to early to tell who's forward/backline is better as the players still need time to develop to fully tell, both teams have lots of potential although essendon do have more KPP.. Carlton's Midfield is obviously better with 2 no #1 DP and Judd..

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

The issue with Carlton is all of their talent is loaded in the midfield, that can be good and bad but both their forwardline and backline look incredibly weak.

Which makes you wonder why they topped up with Brock McLean when their line-up seems to have more pressing needs.....

 

[bombermick]

I'm a casual fan because I believe the eight will barely change? Wow, maybe I should predict Richmond will make the finals, then I can be considered a serious bona fide fan. Most years the eight does change a lot, but I think next year there are so many strong teams that they are a class above. Carlton and Essendon are still emerging, and won't be in the top bracket next year.

Pears did okay against Fev if I recall, so I'm not too worried about him. Henderson has shown a bit of promise, but nothing to write home about. To win flags you need both a good mid and some good KPP talent. Carlton have plenty of the former, with little of the later, particulary up forward. Goals win matches and who's going to kick Carlton's? You can play Waite up forward, but it becomes a rob Peter to pay Paul scenario, you would love him down back.

Essendon would kill to have have the midfield talent of Carlton, but I think we're on about the same track for our next flag. Probably 3-4 years away.

 

[Slattery_20]

Which makes you wonder why they topped up with Brock McLean when their line-up seems to have more pressing needs.....

I reckon it was done (on handshake anyway) ahead of time... of course officially that stuff never happens.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Which makes you wonder why they topped up with Brock McLean when their line-up seems to have more pressing needs.....

Which positions in particular need filling?? From where im sitting the only spots we have up for grabs are in the VFL reserves.

 

[bombermick]

Which positions in particular need filling?? From where im sitting the only spots we have up for grabs are in the VFL reserves.

FF
a decent lead up forward
two very insignificant positions really

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Yeah he's a second year player but so what? If you've got the talent, application and size it doesn't matter - look at Pears, who would've thought he'd become our FB after just playing 5 games in his first season. Hurley isn't your average skinny KPP who needs a few seasons to build up his body etc. He's already a massive lad (193cm, 93kg)

I think people are getting too hung up on the whole "Hurley was recruited as defender" throwaway line. Wasn't Jack Anthony recruited as a defender too?

Anyway, Hurley has too much talent to be played in the backline especially when we have players like Hooker and Daniher, heck even Gumbleton can play there because as you said, it is an easier place to learn the trade and Gumby has shown little as a forward, at least Hurley has shown he can influence games as a forward.

People are making a hell of a lot of assumptions about Hurley that's based on one Round 22 game where he kicked 4 goals.

I think Essendon fans might be wise to let him play a full season before annointing him the great white hope.

 

[bombermick]

People are making a hell of a lot of assumptions about Hurley that's based on one Round 22 game where he kicked 4 goals.

I think Essendon fans might be wise to let him play a full season before annointing him the great white hope.

True, there is the danger of overselling him, of thinking he's going to be the next Wayne Carey (he's already on his way thanks to the taxi driver incident). But, it's not simply that he made an admittely poor Hawks defense look sub-par. It's that he took on and beat Tredrea in his first game, did well against the Lions as a forward and was so composed against St. Kilda. Perhaps because our hopes about Gumbleton have been so frustrated, that with Hurley our eyes our popping out of our heads. Still, I think he's the best emerging KPP prospect going around. Would this be disputed?

 

[kreuze_missile]

To win flags you need both a good mid and some good KPP talent.

Geelong won two flags with any standout KPP's. Waite eats Mooney for breakfast as a forward, and Henderson provides a big target to kick to which is all that Hawkins does.

Goals win matches and who's going to kick Carlton's?

Waite and Henderson as our main KPP forwards. Gartlett, Yarran and Betts as crumbers. Walker and Houlihan on the HFF. Murphy as the #1 goal kicking midfielder in the AFL. Kreuzer as a resting ruckman. Judd as a resting midfielder. Medium forwards Wiggins, Robinson and O'hAilpin.

 

[kreuze_missile]

FF
a decent lead up forward
two very insignificant positions really

Waite.
Henderson.

Any others..?

 

[blues4flag]

I would also say Carlton's top-end talent is clearly better than Essendon's. Essendon don't have the quality of Judd, Gibbs and Murphy across the park, not including some emerging youngsters. But, I think Essendon are clearly a more even side, with greater depth. If you listed the Essendon and Carlton sides from the best to worst player, Carlton would win the top 5 easily, but the players from 10-38 would see Essendon on top.

I'd say the opposite. As you'd expect because I'm much more familiar with our 10-38 than you would be, thus inclined towards bias. Fact is, both sides have a plethora of unproven youth and neither side can unequivocally say there's are better. We'll see next season but I myself am supremely confident Carlton will finish above the Bombers next season.

Disregard our forwards all you like but the Bombers don't have a single player on their list who've kicked 30 goals in a season bar Williams. In fact, to my knowledge the most any current Essendon player has ever kicked is 25 goals.

We have 5 players who've kicked more goals in a season than any Essendon player. Best efforts of the both teams combined:
1. Mark Williams (63)
2. Brad Fisher (39)
3. Eddie Betts (38)
4. Jarrad Waite (36)
5. Marc Murphy (31)
6. Ryan Houlihan (28)
7. Angus Monfries (25)

When you factor in Fev getting the majority of the delivery and that ball being distributed between whoever plays up forward next season and I think there's little doubt that Carlton's numbers have more scope for improvement than Essendon's.

On another note, Essendon lost 4 of it's top 7 goals scorers in 09 (97 goals). Carlton lost Fev (89 goals).

2010 will be very interesting and Essendon supporters will get a rude shock at the gulf between us and them.

 

[Slattery_20]

Geelong won two flags with any standout KPP's. Waite eats Mooney for breakfast as a forward, and Henderson provides a big target to kick to which is all that Hawkins does.

Bit rough on Scarlett and Harley there, I'd say they went alright.

Carlton's forward line is similar to ours... your most "proven" forward has been playing CHB or wing most of his career. Ours has a Coleman or two and a flag. Then a bunch of kids ("potential") and mid-tier players who, realistically, are not suddenly going to kick tons (Monfries, Davey, Fisher, Betts etc). PLENTY of doubt.

 

[blues4flag]

Ours has a Coleman or two and a flag.

Who would that be?

 

[bombermick]

I'd say the opposite. As you'd expect because I'm much more familiar with our 10-38 than you would be, thus inclined towards bias. Fact is, both sides have a plethora of unproven youth and neither side can unequivocally say there's are better. We'll see next season but I myself am supremely confident Carlton will finish above the Bombers next season.

Disregard our forwards all you like but the Bombers don't have a single player on their list who've kicked 30 goals in a season bar Williams. In fact, to my knowledge the most any current Essendon player has ever kicked is 25 goals.

We have 5 players who've kicked more goals in a season than any Essendon player. Best efforts of the both teams combined:
1. Mark Williams (63)
2. Brad Fisher (39)
3. Eddie Betts (38)
4. Jarrad Waite (36)
5. Marc Murphy (31)
6. Ryan Houlihan (28)
7. Angus Monfries (25)

When you factor in Fev getting the majority of the delivery and that ball being distributed between whoever plays up forward next season and I think there's little doubt that Carlton's numbers have more scope for improvement than Essendon's.

On another note, Essendon lost 4 of it's top 7 goals scorers in 09 (97 goals). Carlton lost Fev (89 goals).

2010 will be very interesting and Essendon supporters will get a rude shock at the gulf between us and them.

You've done your researched, so for that kudos. But, Fisher was struggling to break into your side last season, so I doubt you can expect 39 from him next year. Murphy will be good for about 30 goals, which is a great effort from a mid. Houlihan is frustration personfied, all the talent in the world but I would be shocked if he gives you a consistent season where he provides 28 goals.

Essendon
HF Gumbleton Hurley Monfries
FF Williams Neagle Davey

Davey was horrible last year, but we need a small for balance. Hopefully he can return to his prevous form.

Carlton
HF Garlett Waite O'Aliphin
FF Houlihan Henderson Betts

Not sure if this would be the best Carlton set-up, I've tried to have a good balance of talls and smalls. I'm biased but I would clearly take Essendon's forward line.

 

[DapperDon]

Bit rough on Scarlett and Harley there, I'd say they went alright.

Carlton's forward line is similar to ours... your most "proven" forward has been playing CHB or wing most of his career. Ours has a Coleman or two and a flag. Then a bunch of kids ("potential") and mid-tier players who, realistically, are not suddenly going to kick tons (Monfries, Davey, Fisher, Betts etc). PLENTY of doubt.

Williams never won a Coleman Slatts.

 

[Slattery_20]

Williams never won a Coleman Slatts.

Didn't he? About 05?