Why Does Everyone Favour St Kilda Next Week?

[PieNSauce]

OK
Think I was confused when you brought "omen" into it

Basing an argument on what has statistically been occurring over a sustained number of weeks is one thing

Basing it on the fact that it was 44 years since Geelong won their GF in 2007 and comparing it to St Kilda this year is quite another

If you can't base an argument on statistics or form-line, we'd never have a favourite. Every team in every game in every sport would have to start at a 50% chance of winning. Wouldn't they? Mathematics says this is how it probably should be. Reality tells us otherwise

Quite right but if what you're trying to do is to determine who is most likely to win then why would you ignore the obvious statistic of who won the most games this year, who has outscored you overall this year etc etc. I'm not saying you can't use history as a guide but self delusion doesn't amount to logical analysis IMHO.

 

[mob]

Here's a quote from you, from TODAY,

The good news for the Pies is that there's no way Swanny and Pendles would be so far down on form for 2 weeks in a row. It hasn't happened up til now and I can't see it happening next week.

Why is it OK for you to refer to history (your definition) but no one else?

You will find it difficult having a discussion with a Hypocrite

But by all means, keep going. I'm enjoying the banter.

 

[Ricmel]

You will find it difficult having a discussion with a Hypocrite

But by all means, keep going. I'm enjoying the banter.

I think the point has been made. Don't use history to support your own arguments if you won't listen to others using it to support theirs.

 

[PieNSauce]

Post withdrawn.

 

[PieNSauce]

I think the point has been made. Don't use history to support your own arguments if you won't listen to others using it to support theirs.

lol... Close! I was simply making the observation that your historical references conveniently ignored other facts which may have been considered as relevant or moreso. Possibly it's fair to say I may have minced my words a little so I'll concede that but I think you knew where I was coming from.

 

[Ricmel]

The point made which you're so skilful at avoiding is that if you use history to make an argument you really ought to do it with both eyes open. That is at least if you plan to have a logical analysis of your chances. I mean let's be fair, you couldn't even understand that discussing past performance had anything to do with history. It's hardly rocket science.

Mate, I made one point.

That was Saints have been strong in last quarters this year, Pies haven't. In the GF Saints had 6 scoring shots and kicked 3.3. Pies had 3 and kicked 2.1. Pies captain said Saints had the run.

So, what would Saints take away from the game. Probably that they have the legs on Pies.

Nothing more , nothing less.

Pies would take plenty away too. You can make your own calls about what that would be.

There are no omens or superstitions or wild conclusions in any of that. It is logic based on how the match played out and the trends of the season.

I said no more.

NOt that Saints were now faves, nor that Pies couldn't win.

Just that this is something that the Saints would take away.

 

[PieNSauce]

Mate, I made one point.

That was Saints have been strong in last quarters this year, Pies haven't. In the GF Saints had 6 scoring shots and kicked 3.3. Pies had 3 and kicked 2.1. Pies captain said Saints had the run.

So, what would Saints take away from the game. Probably that they have the legs on Pies.

Nothing more , nothing less.

Pies would take plenty away too. You can make your own calls about what that would be.

There are no omens or superstitions or wild conclusions in any of that. It is logic based on how the match played out and the trends of the season.

I said no more.

NOt that Saints were now faves, nor that Pies couldn't win.

Just that this is something that the Saints would take away.

While I detect a slight departure from what you were actually saying I'm happy enough to accept that explanation. I do think though that it is an assumption that because the Saints have won more last quarters that they are more fit. The reason I say that is that the Pies have obviously had so many huge first halves that running out last quarters with the same intensity has been unnecessary. What does that say? Well for one thing, it says absolutely nothing about the fitness of the Collingwood players and I doubt even the St Kilda players would be suggesting that they are fitter.

 

[mysainters]

There is no way of knowing, probably both teams will make it a tight contest again.

The only things worth taking into account that benefits St Kilda, is the equal preperation time with both sides having the same break, and the fact that we will have a full bench.

 

[Ricmel]

While I detect a slight departure from what you were actually saying I'm happy enough to accept that explanation. I

This is my post,

Don't think we have it in the bag but I think most Saints supporters are far more confident about next week than last week.

Last week no one gave us much chance. Now everyone says it is basically 50/50.

To me, Pies ran out of legs and fitness is a hard thing to fix in 7 days. Pretty sure Pies won 7 of 22 last quarters this year. Saints won 16 of 22 so it gives us some confidence.

Are we absolutely fitter? No but on the evidence that is there at the moment we can make a case (in the same way that the Pies are better starters and have been all year).

The only time I had a moment of "We have won this" on Saturady was when scores were level and just before Goddard kicked his last goal (about 19min mark) was watching Jason Blake out sprint Didak and Shaw to a loose ball on the wing.

Didak was spent, Shaw almost got there but on fresher legs, Blake would not have got within 10 metres of them.

Is it conclusive? No.

Is it something that the Saints would be confident about ? Yes.

 

[PieNSauce]

and the fact that we will have a full bench.

lol... I know Saints supporters who reckon they were better in the second half because they didn't have Gardiner.

Anyway, nobody knows who will be a hit and who will be a dud next week. There are so many variables it doesn't really bear scientific analysis. Personally I just hope it's a good and fair game and that the umpires don't stuff it up by overofficiating.

 

[Pies time is NOW]

The Saints are Coming...

The Saints are Coming...

 

[PieNSauce]

This is my post,

Don't think we have it in the bag but I think most Saints supporters are far more confident about next week than last week.

Last week no one gave us much chance. Now everyone says it is basically 50/50.

To me, Pies ran out of legs and fitness is a hard thing to fix in 7 days. Pretty sure Pies won 7 of 22 last quarters this year. Saints won 16 of 22 so it gives us some confidence.

Are we absolutely fitter? No but on the evidence that is there at the moment we can make a case (in the same way that the Pies are better starters and have been all year)..

Fair point but that would give us just as much confidence. In other words, one positive cancels out the other.

The only time I had a moment of "We have won this" on Saturady was when scores were level and just before Goddard kicked his last goal (about 19min mark) was watching Jason Blake out sprint Didak and Shaw to a loose ball on the wing.

Didak was spent, Shaw almost got there but on fresher legs, Blake would not have got within 10 metres of them.

Is it conclusive? No.

Is it something that the Saints would be confident about ? Yes.

Likewise I would have to say that it could be concluded that the fact the Pies turned it around again in the last 5 minutes might indicate that ultimately the Saints ran out of legs or ran out of options. Do we know that to be fact? Probably not. Will the Pies use it in their preparation? You bet! You see, there are always 2 ways to view any scenario and I guess human nature says we'll always choose the one that suits us.

 

[mysainters]

lol... I know Saints supporters who reckon they were better in the second half because they didn't have Gardiner.

You won't be able to convince me that being one guy down for about 70% of the game was an advantage.

 

[PieNSauce]

You won't be able to convince me that being one guy down for about 70% of the game was an advantage.

It depends. Let's say you're Geelong and Tom Hawkins goes off injured. I reckon that would be an advantage.

 

[Falchoon]

It depends. Let's say you're Geelong and Tom Hawkins goes off injured. I reckon that would be an advantage.

Not if you have to play Blake for the rest of the game.

 

[PieNSauce]

Not if you have to play Blake for the rest of the game.

Blake makes Hawkins look like a school girl.

 

[Bozo]

Didak was spent, Shaw almost got there but on fresher legs, Blake would not have got within 10 metres of them.

The Saints sniped the outside running players of Collingwood to nullify their running power and the Magpies sniped Riewoldt when they had the chance - Riewoldt is used to it and is a bigger body whereas the midfielders aren't used to it eg the treatment by three saints after the Dawson bump on Didak and Jones tunneling Pendlebury in the third quarter. In a normal H&A match the sniping isn't so consistent and targeted as the MRP may get involved but the GF is usually the last game of the year and any risk of suspension from a borderline incident is worth it and the MRP have shown this finals series that they will pull any excuse out of the hat to not suspend players. Before you say harden up, I wish we had the 80s tribunal where dog acts got the the true lesson of hardening up, wouldn't the AFL be better if Riemers was knocked out two or three times a season, Didak copped his fair due when he is culpable etc etc?

 

[Ricmel]

The Saints sniped the outside running players of Collingwood to nullify their running power and the Magpies sniped Riewoldt when they had the chance - Riewoldt is used to it and is a bigger body whereas the midfielders aren't used to it eg the treatment by three saints after the Dawson bump on Didak and Jones tunneling Pendlebury in the third quarter. In a normal H&A match the sniping isn't so consistent and targeted as the MRP may get involved but the GF is usually the last game of the year and any risk of suspension from a borderline incident is worth it and the MRP have shown this finals series that they will pull any excuse out of the hat to not suspend players. Before you say harden up, I wish we had the 80s tribunal where dog acts got the the true lesson of hardening up, wouldn't the AFL be better if Riemers was knocked out two or three times a season, Didak copped his fair due when he is culpable etc etc?

TBH I have no idea what you are getting at here. I didn't see either Dawson tackle or the Jones incident but I have heard a lot on radio suggesting the Dawson play was brilliant.

Not heard anyone mention these as some sort of sniping.

GF it is always going to get pretty willing.

 

[absfab]

Before you say harden up,

Harden up, Princess.

Both teams went in hard, and both teams pushed the envelope equally. If you are too blind in one eye to see that, then you'd be best served to remian silent and avoid looking foolish.