Win Last 2 vs Lose Last 2

[thurgood33]

Following on from a thread by ShanBoi, i thought it'd be interesting to find out the opinions of the hawthorn supporters on this board.

Ideally, do we want to win or lose the last 2 games? Assuming that they are both winnable, which i'd say the north game is definately winnable, and the cats game is with in reach if we continue playing well.

There are definate positives that can be taken out of winning the last 2 games, ie. giving the youngsters a taste of winning some games on the run, which is paramount in achieving success in football, and i also think the wins will polarise the team, inspiring both the young and old for a big pre-season and to go full-tilt for a finals birth next year.

However the counter argument is to play some of the other youngsters late in the season ie. ellis (if he's available, i'm in london at the moment so i don't really have much of an idea of what the draft picks are doing?) dowler etc. and giving some of the players who are likely to be delisted a chance to prove they are worth keeping on for the next season. Although this might cost us both games it may allow a greater pick in this so-called superdraft, where i think getting a KPP backman to partner Croad and Dawson down back next season, although Gilham by all reports is staking a claim.

Sorry for the long posts and probable inaccuracies due to being out of football circles this year.

So do we, in an ideal world, want to win or lose the last 2 games???

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

No question here. The object is to build a WINNING team. A good finish to the season could see us hit the ground running in 2007. Losing deliberately is not what it's about.

 

[Philhawk]

As I said over at MightyHawk, while all Hawk fans will be hoping for big, big wins over the next fortnight, in hindsight, it will come down to the coaching staff, who will most likely be looking to,

Tank                           Tank                         Tank 
  Tank                      Tank Tank                  Tank 
     Tank                 Tank     Tank              Tank 
        Tank            Tank         Tank          Tank 
           Tank       Tank             Tank      Tank 
              Tank  Tank                 Tank  Tank 
                  Tank                           Tank 


                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 




                             Tank                     Tank  
                             Tank Tank             Tank 
                             Tank   Tank            Tank 
                             Tank     Tank          Tank 
                             Tank       Tank        Tank 
                             Tank         Tank      Tank 
                             Tank           Tank    Tank 
                             Tank             Tank   Tank 
                             Tank               Tank Tank 
                             Tank                  Tank

In addition to that, while the team wont be 'asked' to lose, certain factors will come into the equation which will influence the results over the next few weeks.

Exhibit A: Watch Dawson come back and play on Sav this weekend.

 

[CyberKev]

As I said over at MightyHawk, while all Hawk fans will be hoping for big, big wins over the next fortnight, in hindsight, it will come down to the coaching staff, who will most likely be looking to,

Tank                           Tank                         Tank 
  Tank                      Tank Tank                  Tank 
     Tank                 Tank     Tank              Tank 
        Tank            Tank         Tank          Tank 
           Tank       Tank             Tank      Tank 
              Tank  Tank                 Tank  Tank 
                  Tank                           Tank 


                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 
                             Tank 




                             Tank                     Tank  
                             Tank Tank             Tank 
                             Tank   Tank            Tank 
                             Tank     Tank          Tank 
                             Tank       Tank        Tank 
                             Tank         Tank      Tank 
                             Tank           Tank    Tank 
                             Tank             Tank   Tank 
                             Tank               Tank Tank 
                             Tank                  Tank

In addition to that, while the team wont be 'asked' to lose, certain factors will come into the equation which will influence the results over the next few weeks.

Exhibit A: Watch Dawson come back and play on Sav this weekend.

Nonsense.

I'd be surprised if there were any changes to the side that played on Saturday night.

 

[Hawkk]

Kennett said earlier in the year that he would hope that the team would win 8-10 games.

It's important we don't fall behind expectations, besides we have by far and away the most first round draft picks at our club from all sides - including St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, I don't think pick 3 and 6 is going to make that much of a difference.

Surely 2-3 sides would take a midfielder - Carlton etc. anyway, so we will still get a good tall.

 

[Philhawk]

Nonsense.

I'd be surprised if there were any changes to the side that played on Saturday night.

Well, we'll see I guess.

 

[worthy]

I can't believe this question could even be asked, i'd be disgusted at anyone who would hope for higher draft picks ahead of wins. We have a great selection of young talent already, at some stage you have to start winning regularly and forget about draft picks.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Terry Wallace is happy to finnish ninth if he knows there on the way up even if it means bad draft picks.
I am happy to finnish 3rd last because I KNOW we are on the way up and we get a good draft pick too.

 

[xyakks]

I can't believe this question could even be asked, i'd be disgusted at anyone who would hope for higher draft picks ahead of wins. We have a great selection of young talent already, at some stage you have to start winning regularly and forget about draft picks.

Agreed. No wonder we continually get bagged by oposition supporters for tanking if this is the attitude of our supporters. Disgusting to even talk about losing on purpose to "win" draft picks. If that was the case I would be very dissapointed. Losing is bad enough, but for our club to be so pathetic as to actually attempt to lose just to gain picks would be disturbing.

We get some great chances in this draft if we finish 11th. Pick 6 give us a chance of a very good player, and the same goes for our second rounder + we get a very promising young boy under the father son rule as well so why do we need to tank to get a couple of pick higher?

 

[RustyHawk]

Nonsense.

I'd be surprised if there were any changes to the side that played on Saturday night.

Mate

There has to be at least TWO changes to Saturday nights team.

1) JB into Rd 22 - the farewell game I think he richly deserves

2) Mat Little. We need to see how he goes at the elite level. This year Murphy and Gilham have come up and suprised, well certainly me, that they can play at the elite level. Now is still the time to decide on Little.

To me, Little needs at least 2 weeks to see what hes got.


I say we continue the program of blooding the newbies and seeing if there going to help from the nuclues of a side into the next few years.

If we win, great, if we dont, no biggie.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Kennett said earlier in the year that he would hope that the team would win 8-10 games.

All Politicians are liars and should never be trusted.

It's important we don't fall behind expectations, besides we have by far and away the most first round draft picks at our club from all sides - including St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, I don't think pick 3 and 6 is going to make that much of a difference.

Its obvious That with the Dogs and the Saints they wont win the Cup this year due to injury to there top players I bet they wish they had more super stars on there list.

Surely 2-3 sides would take a midfielder - Carlton etc. anyway, so we will still get a good tall.

Carlton takes the Midfielder Gibbs,Essendon the pack marking CHF,and hopefully we get to pick the eyes out of the rest to get either another super star before the averageness kicks in.

 

[Cynic]

I'm not certain we'll see Dawson again after Spider's comments on the Gospel...

 

[burner1]

We have a great selection of young talent already, at some stage you have to start winning regularly and forget about draft picks.

IMO we still dont have a premiership challenging list, just look at the junk thats going to be delisted this year.
I agree at some stage we have to start winning regularly and forget about draft picks, but with the season over and two meaningless games left does two 'nothing' wins really mean a lot?

As AH said "the objective is to build a winning team." Winning against teams who dont really care doesnt really help build a successful team. Getting games into our youngsters like dowler, bailey, ellis, little, and maybe tuck will help us build a winning team in the not to distant future.

If we win the next two games with an experineced line up it really means jack **** for our long term future. If we win the next two with an inexperienced lineup then it bodes well for the future and if we lose well no big deal.

 

[illnino]

IMO we still dont have a premiership challenging list, just look at the junk thats going to be delisted this year.
I agree at some stage we have to start winning regularly and forget about draft picks, but with the season over and two meaningless games left does two 'nothing' wins really mean a lot?

As AH said "the objective is to build a winning team." Winning against teams who dont really care doesnt really help build a successful team. Getting games into our youngsters like dowler, bailey, ellis, little, and maybe tuck will help us build a winning team in the not to distant future.

If we win the next two games with an experineced line up it really means jack **** for our long term future. If we win the next two with an inexperienced lineup then it bodes well for the future and if we lose well no big deal.

Sorry Burner1, I really disagree...

Blooding youngsters etc. is for pre-season and practice matches - always has been. Why not try to win.......isn't that what sport is about???

 

[thurgood33]

Agreed. No wonder we continually get bagged by oposition supporters for tanking if this is the attitude of our supporters. Disgusting to even talk about losing on purpose to "win" draft picks. If that was the case I would be very dissapointed. Losing is bad enough, but for our club to be so pathetic as to actually attempt to lose just to gain picks would be disturbing.

We get some great chances in this draft if we finish 11th. Pick 6 give us a chance of a very good player, and the same goes for our second rounder + we get a very promising young boy under the father son rule as well so why do we need to tank to get a couple of pick higher?

mate, i'm not suggesting they go out on purpose to lose games, i'm saying they include some youngsters/fringe player and give them a chance to show what they've got, whilst resting some of the senior players who have been playing under injury clouds this season??
and then even i voted to go out and win, its just a suggestion and was taken from some of the other fans opinions on shanboi's thread.

 

[Cynic]

The fact is we are likely to have salary cap problems in a few years anyway so why make it more stressful?

 

[burner1]

Sorry Burner1, I really disagree...

Blooding youngsters etc. is for pre-season and practice matches - always has been. Why not try to win.......isn't that what sport is about???

Teams are always trading off between playing experienced players and giving games into younger players who will hopefullly develop into guns. Or playing guys coming back from injuries who take a few weeks to get into it.

On a one game output an experienced player is 99 times out of 100 going to have more of an impact than that of even the most accomplised debutant.

Yet by playing that debuatant does it mean the team is not trying to win?
Does by playing a guy coming back from injury mean the team is not trying to win? Absoulute rubbish.

Until the finals im not sure you could say every team played their best 22 on a purely one game basis - ie they play their best 22 taking into regard players coming back from injuries and developing youngsters with the aim to develop a mix come finals that is competitive.

These last two games really have no meaning or pressure as we cant make the finals so we should be looking to play players who will be part of our (hopefully successful) best 22 next year.

Its the same thing that every team does throughout the season - aiming to win each week but taking into account the long term progress of the group - but is more skewed to the development side as we cant make the finals so should be looking more to 2007.

 

[Philhawk]

The following are Mojo31's draft profiles taken from the Draft and Trading Board under the thread '2006 Draft profiles (mojo31)'

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=225797

1) Lachlan Hansen

Key Position player

195cms and 84kgs
17/8/88
Gippsland Power (TAC)

Tall key position player who is a very good mover. Played CHF early in the TAC and moved back to CHB for the 2nd half of last year. Dominated his opponents and marked everything that came his way. Skinny still but wont shirk the issue. Freak at his age and size. Best overall mark I have ever seen for his age. Superb judge of the flight of the ball and has a first class attack on everything in the air. Rarely out bodied even though he is still skinny. Beat stronger opponents in the TAC with superior body positioning and judgement.
Sometimes funny watching him anticipate the kick into the forward line quicker than his opponent when playing as a defender. Would be off and running before his opponent had even moved and take an easy uncontested mark from a opposition kick. Was the “wall” when playing at CHB.

Will likely play forward in 2006 and see how he develops. Shown enough to suggest he can play both ends and become a dominant KPP capable of playing anywhere in the 4 key posts if required.
As he fills out will likely change his style a little and use his body more and more rather than standing off his opponent a few meters and using superior anticipation and leap and body positioning to beat the opponent.
That is not to say he is an outside player at all. He just understand his game and realises that there is no point to getting into a wrestling match against some players who are much heavier and stronger than he was in 2005. Sort of like Dustin Fletchers style. Who does not do well in wrestling contests and gets slaughtered against bigger stronger opponents when caught out in that way (Sav Rocca and J Brown come to mind who seem to beat him to the point where Sheedy won’t play him on them now). The difference is that Hansen is 16 and will be filling out and won’t have to play that way in a few years.

Runs a very high beep test and has very good endurance, speed, and is a freak athletic package for his size. Showed his class at the U18 Championships despite being a year younger and looked up to speed and class at CHB. Should be dominant this year in the TAC and at the U18s and show what he is made of at CHF.

Got better and better as the season went on and was taking a lot of contested marks and getting a lot of the ball in the last few games of the TAC finals. A quite capable ruckman as well who got a number of hit outs and its not inconceivable that he will grow quite a bit more and develop into a ruck in time. He can tap to advantage and has a very big leap. A player who started out last year as an athletic tall who was struggling a bit and ended it as a dominant key backman who got more and more involved in the play and get stronger and more capable of controlling the corridor. Plays the game like Chad Cornes back there peeling off and taking strong marks. But has the added advantage of being able to play tight as well when needed but will still be prepared to back himself in to win the ball. Has all the instincts of a gun forward but needed to round out his development by playing as an attacking defender in 2005 and now is ready for a move forward for the upcoming season.

2) Bryce Gibbs

Utility/wing

187cms and 78kgs
15/3/89
Glenelg (SA)

Has some athletic ability but is more a natural footballer rather than an athlete. Quick over the ground but not lightning. Good build and superb kicking skills and ability to read the play and find space. Playing senior football in the SANFL for Glenelg last year. As well as played the U16 Championships in 2004 and 2005 for South Australia.

Half forward flanker and midfielder who will kick goals and play all over the ground. Better in 1 on 1 contests and in open spaces rather than in congestion in packs. Such a smooth mover he appears to not be quick but is football quick with anticipation. Does everything so easily that appears to not be at 100%. The “Mark Waugh” of next years draft with his grace and nonchalance.
Absolute lock in cant miss selection for anyone who nabs him. Not sure he will become a bona fide pure midfielder but as a creative player who will kick goals and cut teams apart if given space and time.
Been tagged in the SANFL and shown himself to be mentally and physically up to that challenge. Niggling tactics don’t seem to bother him and regardless of the game situation will run and create an option.
Would like to see more tackling from him and a little bit more urgency at times.

Cant really find fault overall with him. For his age he has a complete game. 187cms and of course still growing and might pinch hit as a KPP when finished.
Has some football arrogance and is prepared to back his judgement and ability and take a player on and also attempt a difficult kick. Wont just play the percentages and I like that about him. Not robotic by any means and is a natural sportsmen with outstanding hand eye co-ordination, balance and poise.
Quite physically developed despite his young age and perhaps he does not have as much improvement in him in that regard as others. But he is classy and silky and just keeps getting the ball and doing the right things with it.

The small question I have on him is not how good he is but rather his development. Looking at him in the 2004 U16s he looked amazing but in 2005 he really did not look like he had improved that much. A similar size still and not significantly better. I am a little concerned that he has peaked early and what we might be seeing is a player who is ready at a young age and might get caught later on by other players who are still developing at a rapid rate. I am not sure and its hard to know but have him at 2 still and will watch him this year closely. I see him as a long term wingman who will take a strong mark and look to set up goals with his ability to find space and kick to advantage. Such a good user that he is deadly delivering the ball into the forward line and will be hard to match up on with a player who can run with him and also match his considerable strength in the air.

3) Mitchell Thorp

Key position player

25/12/88
195cms and 84kgs
Northern Bombers, Tasmania

Explosive key position player from Tasmania. Fast and very mobile and has agility and running ability. Played all over the place and shown himself to be versatile and basically up to all the roles he has been given.
That includes being switched from full back to full forward in an U18 Championships game and having the poise and temprement to handle it.

Takes a big mark in pack situations and also in 1 on 1. Good kick for goal and in general play and has fine skills. No real weaknesses in his game and could develop in any of the 4 key positions down the spine. Reads the play well and is not often caught being out of position. An athlete who has football smarts and skill. Therefore is the complete package.

We are talking about Chris Tarrant levels of athleticism when considering Thorp. Add to that a far superior kick and especially for goal and likely extra height, versatility and barely 17 and we have a huge prospect.

Moved him from 4 to 3 on the my latest thoughts. I think he could be the overall best athlete out of the upcoming draft for his size along with the smaller Clinton Benjamin . Has real burst speed to get out on his own on the lead or shut a player down quickly when playing as a defender. Can really take a huge leap and has very good endurance. Basically a Nick Riewoldt type of player with that same speed and endurance and leap that he has. Not proven to be quite in that class yet but should do so this year and stamp himself as a genuine versatile gun tall. Not sure where his best position is and have seen him dominate up forward and take a number of huge pack marks and kick a bag of goals as well as play as a defender. Taking all the kick outs and looking very composed and directing traffic and showing leadership. Then moves around like a wing man and picks the ball up off the ground like a midfielder with clean hands and runs and carries the ball. So really the club who gets him is getting a player who can play anywhere on the ground and develop him how they want. He has everything that is needed to be a quality player with real flair and match winning ability.

4) Scott Gumbleton

Centre half forward

195cms and 87 kgs
3/8/88
Peel Thunder (WA)

Very strong contested mark and would think that he is the best exponent of that out of all the kids available in the next draft.
Skinny but is surprisingly strong and powerful and uses his body so well as a forward. A physical player who plays the corridor and has presence on the field.
Demands the ball and likes to play in front and at his size and possessing a good leap he is hard to stop once he does take front position.
Presents well and seems to have a good tank and a fine work ethic. Very good converter in front of goal and has a sound kicking technique and overall is a very good kick.
Athletic rather than bulky but has a big frame and will not have a problem putting on the size required to become a key position player in the AFL.
Not really seen him play down back and it is as a centre half forward that he will be judged and play most of his career it seems.
Showed his talent at the U18s Champs where he was as good as any big man on the ground even though he was a year younger than most of them. Good enough to keep Josh Kennedy out of the Key forward position for WA in the recent U18 Championships.
Has very good agility and covers a lot of ground but does his best work in contested situations rather than taking easy marks out wide.

Would liken him to Josh Kennedy only more athletic and an even better mark. Same work rate, physicality and competitiveness and around the same size even though he is 1 year younger. Looked superb at the U16 Championships in 2004 and dominated at that level. Disposals, contested marks and won the hard ball on the ground as well. Played very well in the WAFL and kicked a lot of goals and again showed how good a mark he was and his fierce his attack on the ball was. Good second efforts and is good at winning the ball on the ground and does not fumble when doing so.
Anybody who saw him at the 2005 U18 Championships saw him play below his best. He has an injury to his arm and he was not comfortable in his marking or handling of the ball. Presented and worked but his normally sure ball handling was not quite there. He will be better this year when fully fit and show why he is the best key forward available in the draft. Others might be slightly in front as far as overall players but he is the safest best for a key forward out of anyone.

5) James Sellar

Ruck/Key forward

195cms and 86kgs
24/3/89
Glenelg

South Australian player who was named best player at the U16 Championships.
Very smooth and moves like a key position player. Very high work rate and involves himself in the play. Contests well around the ground and is capable of playing a key position up forward. Good skills and does not any of the awkwardness of most ruckmen in dropping the ball from hand to foot.
Plays like a ruck but moves like a key position. Athletic and is in good in contested situations. Has a fine touch by hand in directing the ball down in the ruck and a good awareness of how to use his body and where to deliver to his midfielders.

Wiry frame, not bulky but quite strong and should not have problems putting on weight. Big leap, good speed and a natural athlete. Does not lack aggression and hardness at the ball. Pretty reasonable below his feet. The complete package.
He directs his taps well to his midfielders and you can see he is natural with what he is doing. Capable of doing it with either hand and also something that a lot of ruck cannot do in winning his own ball on the ground. Tapping it down and recovering quickly and roving it and getting a quick handball off.

The worry will be his height. Will he grow the 3 or 4 cms he needs to be a full time ruck at AFL level or stay at that in between size he is now. If he does grow a lot then he moves right up onto number 1 contention. He could make it as a key position forward if he does not as he is athletic enough but prefer him in the ruck roaming around the ground. The new ruck rules seem to be favouring the giants and has to be a question mark on Sellar that will not be resolved until draft camp and official testing.

If he does grow to close to 2 meters then Sellar is looking at a more physical and athletic version of Josh Fraser. Better in contested situations and a more robust body and having more speed. Likely be able to handle the rigours of AFL better than Fraser has so far in his career.
I believe his rating will be determined by the draft camp results on his height and reach. I don’t think he will slip out of the top 5 but whether he goes at 5 or 1 will be determined by how much he grows. As a ruck you could not hope for anyone more athletic who can also play tall and take a big mark and read the play.

By no stretch of the imagination am I advocating 'tanking', but after those 5, the depth of KPP in this Superdraft goes downhill.

Gee, Gumbleton, Hansen and Thorp particularly look so promising ...

It's kind of like the forbidden fruit. You really want it, but you know you shouldn't 'go there'.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Hodge is obviously carrying a foot injury is it in Hawthorn and Hodges best interest to play the last 2 games.
Crawf was clearly having to have either treatment or needles in his back when he was rushed up the race he should be rested and lets see Zac, Boyles,JB ,Little,Ball,Tuck, Ellis and Young have a go.

 

[illnino]

Teams are always trading off between playing experienced players and giving games into younger players who will hopefullly develop into guns. Or playing guys coming back from injuries who take a few weeks to get into it.

On a one game output an experienced player is 99 times out of 100 going to have more of an impact than that of even the most accomplised debutant.

Yet by playing that debuatant does it mean the team is not trying to win?
Does by playing a guy coming back from injury mean the team is not trying to win? Absoulute rubbish.

Until the finals im not sure you could say every team played their best 22 on a purely one game basis - ie they play their best 22 taking into regard players coming back from injuries and developing youngsters with the aim to develop a mix come finals that is competitive.

These last two games really have no meaning or pressure as we cant make the finals so we should be looking to play players who will be part of our (hopefully successful) best 22 next year.

Its the same thing that every team does throughout the season - aiming to win each week but taking into account the long term progress of the group - but is more skewed to the development side as we cant make the finals so should be looking more to 2007.

I'm not saying put your best 22 on each week but I do think it's rediculous to put a team on the ground that can't win.

Having more than 2 or 3 debutants in one game would just be giving the game away and that's something the hawks cannot do - especially now AC has stated he is after as many wins as possible.

If I wasn't a fan of 'blooding' youngsters, why on Earth would I be going for Hawthorn......I just think that this isn't the right year, or time of year, to be giving away matches - Franklin, Roughead, Birchall, Bailey, Dowler, Murphy, Lewis, Dawson etc......are we forgetting.......these guys are still very young, and the more confidence they gain now, eg. winning, the better off they'll be....

We are one of the youngest, most inexperienced teams around, and you want to inject more youth and inexperience?

 

[illnino]

lets see Zac, Boyles,JB ,Little,Ball,Tuck, Ellis and Young have a go.

Just watch a Box Hill game No Probs.....

 

[Hawkk]

lets see Zac, Boyles,JB ,Little,Ball,Tuck, Ellis and Young have a go.

Tuck, Ellis, Dowler, Little and Young yes....the others can get lost.

What's the point of playing Barker?

 

[burner1]

I'm not saying put your best 22 on each week but I do think it's rediculous to put a team on the ground that can't win.

With the kangaroos resting grant, simpson and prob wells dont think we would have to put much of a team on the park to have a chance to win. (and its arguable that for most of the season against top teams our team on the park realistically couldnt win so why not develop players so next season we may have a realistic chance?)

Having more than 2 or 3 debutants in one game would just be giving the game away and that's something the hawks cannot do - especially now AC has stated he is after as many wins as possible.

If I wasn't a fan of 'blooding' youngsters, why on Earth would I be going for Hawthorn......I just think that this isn't the right year, or time of year, to be giving away matches - Franklin, Roughead, Birchall, Bailey, Dowler, Murphy, Lewis, Dawson etc......are we forgetting.......these guys are still very young, and the more confidence they gain now, eg. winning, the better off they'll be....

With the season over and two games to go with us still in rebuilding mode I thought this would be perfect time of year and year to get games into youngsters.
With a better list and more developed players Im hoping we'll be trying to win upwards of 8-9 wins games next year and dont want us to be throwing away games for the sake of development as we should be better progressed. If there's a time to develop players then its over these last two meaningless games while we're still in heavy rebuilding mode rather than in 2007/08 when the focus should be more on getting wins and building momentum/confidence.

We are one of the youngest, most inexperienced teams around, and you want to inject more youth and inexperience?

More saying that winning a game against a half strength opposition in a meaningless game while spending most of the game on the bench is not going to do any more to our young players confidence than getting a lot of game time and responsibility and us maybe winning/losing.

 

[Philhawk]

Tuck, Ellis, Dowler, Little and Young yes....the others can get lost.

What's the point of playing Barker?

He's about to retire? Surely you're not that cold hearted Hawkk.

 

[cs61]

I don't understand how one can not see the importance of winning these last two games and winning well.