Politics Young people won't embrace progressive politics when they see its failures

[greyhound punter]

Trump has been successful in capturing the rust belt vote. I think I read two out of three non college educated whites voted for him. Over here, most analysis suggests these are the same sort of people who sunk the Voice referendum. These are people who feel overlooked, and Dutton is gunning for them.

I doubt the Libs can capture them to anywhere near the same extent (we don’t have the same hot button issues like guns and abortion to polarise people), but I’ve no doubt they’re frustrated with Labor.

ALP are writing Dutton off as unelectable. It is fascinating. At the very least, Dutton made a career for himself before entering the parliament.

I had high hopes for the ALP when they were elected. I have been bitterly disappointed. Indeed, I have never felt so disillusioned. The warning signs were there when the ALP refused to consider raising newstart despite campaigning on this issue for a number of years going back to 2018.

Ever since then it has been disappoint after disappointment. I am reminded of Nassim Taleb's summary of Obama: "he is the fellow who would, when there is a fire in the building, give a great big moving speech, and then call for advice".

Some voters value leaders who can give the big moving speeches, who are smooth in front of the camera. I inherently view such smooth operators with a great degree of scepticism. I'm not electing someone to give a sermon, or a speech. I'm voting for a decision maker.

I have made my choice. I implore others to follow.

Vote em out!!!!

 

[Gethelred]

The most despicable thing about the Albanese government is their feigned concern about inequality and caring for the downtrodden. While at the same time, pursuing policy that smashes the people they pretend to care about.

Eventually people will wake up to the inherent incompetence of the Albanese government, if they aren't already. After all, most of the main players of the ALP are the dregs left over from Rudd's mess more than a decade ago.

Moves are afoot in Ireland, Canada and America. As the population moves against progressive governments who have smashed living standards.

****.

Stop making me agree with you.

 

[greyhound punter]

Is Donald Trump making your penis hard?

To be blunt, no.

A medical issue means it has been a number of years since I have been able to achieve that and in all likelihood, those days are behind me.

 

[greyhound punter]

Wealth continues to be concentrated in fewer and fewer hands but somehow the working class are worse off because of immigration?

That is exactly what I am saying.

What tangible benefit does an all time immigration intake have for people that are already here? I'm all ears.

I've been calling this for 6 months. Macrobusiness have been hammering this issue for 12 months.

Be in zero doubt. This issue will decide the next election. Albanese calling an emergency meeting on COL shows that the focus groups are bad. This issue is going to explode at some point....as more and more tent cities pop up and more people die in the back of ramped ambulances.

If Dutton plays his cards right on this issue, he will romp to the next election. All he needs to do is let albanese keep doing what he is doing.

Look at the pushback in Canada against mass immigration. Look at the current protests in Ireland. Look at America and the endless flows of immigrants over the Mexico border. Trump is all but certain to be the next president on the back of this issue.

 

[Gethelred]

Okay.

I'd just like to remind people that we have a thread to discuss immigration:

Society/Culture - Why Australia needs to lower its immigration intake

This thread is about a lot of things, but one of the things it is not about is crime. The next person who seeks to make a connection between violent crime and immigration by posting about it in here will receive a threadban and an infraction equivalent to the racism it portrays. Should you...

www.bigfooty.com

... and belief in immigration is not merely a left wing/progressive conceit in Australia.

 

[Father Jack]

ALP are writing Dutton off as unelectable. It is fascinating. At the very least, Dutton made a career for himself before entering the parliament.

I had high hopes for the ALP when they were elected. I have been bitterly disappointed. Indeed, I have never felt so disillusioned. The warning signs were there when the ALP refused to consider raising newstart despite campaigning on this issue for a number of years going back to 2018.

Ever since then it has been disappoint after disappointment. I am reminded of Nassim Taleb's summary of Obama: "he is the fellow who would, when there is a fire in the building, give a great big moving speech, and then call for advice".

Some voters value leaders who can give the big moving speeches, who are smooth in front of the camera. I inherently view such smooth operators with a great degree of scepticism. I'm not electing someone to give a sermon, or a speech. I'm voting for a decision maker.

I have made my choice. I implore others to follow.

Vote em out!!!!

Dutton is unelectable as was Abbott before him, but most of us are well aware that in this country that is no barrier to winning elections.

Also, why would the LNP be better than Labor?

 

[mcnulty]

Dutton is unelectable as was Abbott before him, but most of us are well aware that in this country that is no barrier to winning elections.

So which is it? Pretty arrogant perspective tbh. The Australian electorate overall is I think pretty fair minded, but if they come to the conclusion the government is incompetent they’ll boot them out.

 

[Father Jack]

So which is it? Pretty arrogant perspective tbh. The Australian electorate overall is I think pretty fair minded, but if they come to the conclusion the government is incompetent they’ll boot them out.

How is it arrogant? We all knew Abbott was going to be a disaster and he was, and I can see the same thing happening with Dutton. What have Labor done or not done that we should kick them out for the corrupt and incompetent LNP?

 

[mcnulty]

How is it arrogant? We all knew Abbott was going to be a disaster and he was, and I can see the same thing happening with Dutton. What have Labor done or not done that we should kick them out for the corrupt and incompetent LNP?

Because that’s a subjective perspective not an objective fact. Dutton being unelectable. Abbott was, Dutton can be too. I’m not going to try and change your mind because you’re obviously rusted on (and I won’t be voting Dutton), but the swing voter may see things very differently.

 

[Father Jack]

Because that’s a subjective perspective not an objective fact. Dutton being unelectable. Abbott was, Dutton can be too. I’m not going to try and change your mind because you’re obviously rusted on (and I won’t be voting Dutton), but the swing voter may see things very differently.

I understand that he can be elected, I'm just saying that all things being equal, he wouldn't be, but you are correct in that I am completely rusted-on to the opinion that Dutton would be a terrible PM. In our preferential system of voting my vote often ends up with Labor but it never starts there.

 

[peetoo]

Dutton does not have an selection winning strategy. If anything even more votes will leak away from the majors.
The teal seats show that labor and greens voters are quite happy to vote tactically joining the leakage

Maybe that will be a good thing

Monique Ryan’s votes where did they come from?

Primary votes
Green 37%
ALP 25%
Ind other 23%
Lib 15%

Swing against lib 6% overall. Key because as Ryan was second on primaries none of her preferences flowed to lib, and would those preferences have been more than 6%?


Dutton will somehow have to tar the teals with the same brush, but these voters aren’t going to go for culture wars much. Kooyong one of the highest yes votes for republic ssm voice.


So liberals, so fond of the wedge, are wedging themselves.

 

[DaRick]

Because that’s a subjective perspective not an objective fact. Dutton being unelectable. Abbott was, Dutton can be too. I’m not going to try and change your mind because you’re obviously rusted on (and I won’t be voting Dutton), but the swing voter may see things very differently.

I actually agree with you. Anyone can be electable given the right circumstances.

That said, 2013 and 2025 will be very different scenarios.

In 2013, Abbott was hated by the left, but the blue-ribbon seats were still rusted-on LNP seats, and many voters wanted the ALP gone because they were clearly imploding. I was one of them, much to my later regret.

I doubt the ALP will be imploding in 2025, the LNP has lost the blue-ribbon seats, and Dutton has too much political baggage. Victorians and South Australians broadly dislike him, as do the blue-ribbon seats and the Chinese minority. On the other hand, Albo is too milquetoast to really dislike. He isn't being undermined from within like Gillard was, nor does he aggravate his colleagues like Rudd did.

 

[DaRick]

That is exactly what I am saying.

What tangible benefit does an all time immigration intake have for people that are already here? I'm all ears.

I've been calling this for 6 months. Macrobusiness have been hammering this issue for 12 months.

Be in zero doubt. This issue will decide the next election. Albanese calling an emergency meeting on COL shows that the focus groups are bad. This issue is going to explode at some point....as more and more tent cities pop up and more people die in the back of ramped ambulances.

If Dutton plays his cards right on this issue, he will romp to the next election. All he needs to do is let albanese keep doing what he is doing.

Look at the pushback in Canada against mass immigration. Look at the current protests in Ireland. Look at America and the endless flows of immigrants over the Mexico border. Trump is all but certain to be the next president on the back of this issue.

Firstly, I've long been critical of mass immigration, because it affects wages and living conditions.

Secondly, I highly doubt that Dutton will play his cards right on this issue - he hasn't really spoken up about it, and IMO he lacks the charisma to sell an anti-immigration message properly.

Thirdly, even if he did, what seats would he win? The blue-ribbon seats don't care that much about this issue (unfortunately). Middle Australia does somewhat, but the LNP already hold many of these seats. Surely not seats with large migrant populations?

 

[Gethelred]

Secondly, I highly doubt that Dutton will play his cards right on this issue - he hasn't really spoken up about it, and IMO he lacks the charisma to sell an anti-immigration message properly.

Thirdly, even if he did, what seats would he win? The blue-ribbon seats don't care that much about this issue (unfortunately). Middle Australia does somewhat, but the LNP already hold many of these seats. Surely not seats with large migrant populations?

This, essentially.

I don't see how immigration plays out with Dutton gaining votes. He's already got a fairly broad strokes reputation as a bit xenophobic if not outright racist, and he lacks the subtlety to manipulate his message in delivery to dogwhistle to the right people whilst keeping the votes he needs onside.

 

[greyhound punter]

Firstly, I've long been critical of mass immigration, because it affects wages and living conditions.

Secondly, I highly doubt that Dutton will play his cards right on this issue - he hasn't really spoken up about it, and IMO he lacks the charisma to sell an anti-immigration message properly.

Thirdly, even if he did, what seats would he win? The blue-ribbon seats don't care that much about this issue (unfortunately). Middle Australia does somewhat, but the LNP already hold many of these seats. Surely not seats with large migrant populations?

I'm of the belief that many migrant populations already here are against the current levels of immigration. By any measure, the current levels of immigration are off the charts.

I'm not sure if the ALP have done this simply to put a floor under house prices (only serving to delay and exacerbate the inevitable). Or if this is an ideological approach. I'm fairly convinced it is the former.

The current rate of immigration, if it continues, will eventually impact those blue ribbon seats as interest rates continue to rise; as adult children have to move back home to avoid sleeping in a car or a tent; as the health system continues to creak and groan and as all round living standards continue to get crushed.

I'm convinced the ALP are on the way out. I know heaps of people who have been impacted by this housing crisis.

The ALP deserve to be voted out on this issue. And that is before we even get to the awful gaslighting from the ALP.

Vote em out.

 

[greyhound punter]

This, essentially.

I don't see how immigration plays out with Dutton gaining votes. He's already got a fairly broad strokes reputation as a bit xenophobic if not outright racist, and he lacks the subtlety to manipulate his message in delivery to dogwhistle to the right people whilst keeping the votes he needs onside.

To be frank and blunt.

You don't need subtlety and charisma when tent cities keep popping up and people continue to die in ramped ambulances.

Look at Canada as an example. Look at Ireland. The populace there have turned big-time against immigration. The situation will continue to deteriorate here. Dutton just needs to let Albo keep doing what he is doing. Perhaps that is why Dutton is silent.

As the rental/housing crisis continues...the pictures will send the message.

 

[Gethelred]

To be frank and blunt.

You don't need subtlety and charisma when tent cities keep popping up and people continue to die in ramped ambulances.

To be equally frank and blunt.

For Dutton to succeed, he would need to establish a connection between those tent cities and ramped ambulances (provided, you know, that they exist; it's not been my experience of Melbourne) and immigration without seeming racist as all ****. That's where the subtlety comes in; if he cannot make what appears on the surface to be quite a spurious and tangential series of connections stick, he comes across as openly appealing to racists.

I don't know about you, but most people do not want to think of themselves as racist. To be openly anti-immigration without large Australia being connected to the issues you're flagging is to allow yourself to be painted with the history this country has as far as xenophobic immigration policies are concerned.

Look at Canada as an example. Look at Ireland. The populace there have turned big-time against immigration. The situation will continue to deteriorate here. Dutton just needs to let Albo keep doing what he is doing. Perhaps that is why Dutton is silent.

As the rental/housing crisis continues...the pictures will send the message.

Again: this isn't the thread to discuss immigration. I've left a link further above.

As long as we're discussing the failure of progressive/left wing governments we're on topic. We're starting to drift away here.

 

[DaRick]

I'm of the belief that many migrant populations already here are against the current levels of immigration. By any measure, the current levels of immigration are off the charts.

I agree. This is a bipartisan failure.

I'm not sure if the ALP have done this simply to put a floor under house prices (only serving to delay and exacerbate the inevitable). Or if this is an ideological approach. I'm fairly convinced it is the former.

That's plausible.

The current rate of immigration, if it continues, will eventually impact those blue ribbon seats as interest rates continue to rise; as adult children have to move back home to avoid sleeping in a car or a tent; as the health system continues to creak and groan and as all round living standards continue to get crushed.

Yes, eventually. But blue-ribbon seats are more likely to think multiculturalism is a positive thing, so it's not an immediate concern for them.

I'm convinced the ALP are on the way out. I know heaps of people who have been impacted by this housing crisis.

The ALP deserve to be voted out on this issue. And that is before we even get to the awful gaslighting from the ALP.

Vote em out.

Do you think that the LNP can 1) deal with this issue any more effectively and 2) that Dutton can separate his anti-immigration message from the migrants already in the country?

His handling of our dispute with China in 2022 suggests that he cannot.

I don't mind voting the ALP out, but make sure the alternative is an actual improvement. I've already made the mistake of voting in a worse alternative in Abbott before; I don't want to do so again.

 

[peetoo]

To be frank and blunt.

You don't need subtlety and charisma when tent cities keep popping up and people continue to die in ramped ambulances.

Look at Canada as an example. Look at Ireland. The populace there have turned big-time against immigration. The situation will continue to deteriorate here. Dutton just needs to let Albo keep doing what he is doing. Perhaps that is why Dutton is silent.

As the rental/housing crisis continues...the pictures will send the message.

Tent living must be risky with all those Sudanese gangs running around

 

[peetoo]

On topic, I reckon young adults are progressive at a soceity level, but in their personal relationships quite socially conservative.

For the right to tap into this they need to be a lot more subtle than they currently are, or probably are capable of the way they operate internally

 

[greyhound punter]

To be equally frank and blunt.

For Dutton to succeed, he would need to establish a connection between those tent cities and ramped ambulances (provided, you know, that they exist; it's not been my experience of Melbourne) and immigration without seeming racist as all *. That's where the subtlety comes in; if he cannot make what appears on the surface to be quite a spurious and tangential series of connections stick, he comes across as openly appealing to racists.

I don't know about you, but most people do not want to think of themselves as racist. To be openly anti-immigration without large Australia being connected to the issues you're flagging is to allow yourself to be painted with the history this country has as far as xenophobic immigration policies are concerned.

Again: this isn't the thread to discuss immigration. I've left a link further above.

As long as we're discussing the failure of progressive/left wing governments we're on topic. We're starting to drift away here.

Indeed we are. I will take further discussions to the relevant thread.