Sorry – you want me to explain why Sydneysiders who develop an interest in Aussie Rules would gravitate towards supporting the Sydney side?
Really? That needs to be explained?
Do you also want me to explain why people in WA who develop an interest in Aussie Rules would overwhelmingly tend to support the Eagles or the Dockers?
Point=missed.
I don't want you to explain why Sydneysiders who develop an interest in Aussie Rules would gravitate towards the Swans. I want you to explain why this means that the Swans should have been more successful as a result of this.
So what's left for you to disagree with me about?
You've just conceded my main point.
No I didn't. Or if I did, that means you're simply arguing a truism. And if that's the case, it doesn't really reflect well on you. Of course Swans supporters would generally flock to the Swans. My point is that this process is very slow for the same reason, and that you're ignoring that.
In short, you are arguing that the benefit of being the only AFL team in the city is balanced against the fact that there are other codes in the mix.
That's fine. I don't dispute that.
All I've been saying is that being the only AFL team in the city has been a significant factor in the Swans' ability to build a following. You bizarrely disputed that initially, but have now conceded that point.
I haven't conceded that point. I only conceded that point when you consider one specific aspect of that effect, but that is not a true reflection of reality. You have to consider the added effect of being the only AFL side in the city, up against many league and a major union side: the cross code effect. The Swans might be the only AFL side, so basically all the AFL supporters gravitate towards them. However, the Swans are the only AFL side, so the number of AFL supporters is very small.
See? You're just considering one side of the coin. You have to consider all aspects of the effect. And when you consider that, then it's not a massively significant effect at all. There is a slight effect, but it's not nearly as fundamental as you say it is, because it only realistically applies to supporters converted by the game independently of the Swans, who then gravitate to the Swans.
Basically: you're saying all AFL fans will become Swans fans, as the Swans are the only team. Therefore, Swans get massive boost from this. However, because the Swans are the only team, they're the only ones promoting the game. Therefore, almost any person who becomes an AFL fan, become one because of the Swans to begin with. Therefore, this effect doesn't need to happen, because they become a Swans fan before an AFL fan. Therefore, the Swans don't get the AFL-fan-becomes-Swans-fan effect, because the Swans are the ones who converted them in the first place.
Now, for the small minority who are converted to AFL through some other, non-Swans related means, yes the Swans will often benefit from them (some will choose to follow an interstate team, but most will follow the Swans). But overall, these supporters represent a very small percentage of the overall Swans support. The bulk of Swans support comes from genuine recruitment work on the Swans part, make no mistake.