At around this time last year, I noted that it was almost impossible to predict what Melbourne would do. They could have finished 8th or 15th and neither would have surprised. The latter happened, and that is why Melbourne are almost as unpredictable in 2013.
Melbourne’s 2012 was a rough ride. 4 wins. Only one of which was against a non-expansion side – the totally unexpected defeat of Essendon. Smashings turned into respectable defeats, but defeats nonetheless. However, Demons supporters do have reason to hope, and consider, that 2013 will be an improvement.
Firstly, the cleanout. Melbourne shed a massive 13 players in the off-season. Interestingly, these were experienced players rather than youngsters, with Brad Green, Brent Moloney and Matthew Bate all sent packing. Clint Bartram is also gone, forced to retire due to a degenerative knee condition. However, they have not simply gone the past route and replaced these players entirely with kids. Melbourne prioritised bringing in a number of senior bodies to fill the void, with David Rodan, Shannon Byrnes, Chris Dawes and Cam Pedersen all slotting into the gaps.
Furthermore, with the success of James Magner in 2012, Melbourne drafted experience too, bringing in 25-year-old Matt Jones from the Box Hill Hawks and 23-year-olds Dean Terlich and Mitchell Clisby. This is obviously to create further competition for those players drafted in the 2008-2010 bracket and assure them that their spots are not guaranteed.
The players brought in, however, give Melbourne some much-needed structure. Mitch Clark was terrific at full-forward for the Dees in 2012, but beyond him they struggled for depth, sending defenders forward when Clark went down injured. The need for forward-line presence was recognised by Mark Neeld, and the signing of Pedersen and Dawes sought to alleviate this. A forward line boasting Dawes, Clark and Pedersen looks a tough matchup for many defences in 2013, with height and power that has not been seen among Melbourne forwards since the days of Schwarz and Neitz.
Adding to this is a bolstered midfield. Nathan Jones’ heroics may actually receive support in 2013, with two of the best midfielders in the 2012 draft ending up in the red and blue. Jimmy Toumpas has speed to burn and silky disposal on top, and is a real top-end prospect. Furthermore, the attack dog that is Jack Viney ended up in Melbourne after a ‘will-they-won’t-they’ saga that lasted throughout September and early October. Viney has already spent two years in the Melbourne system and will be ready to go come round 1, and his midfield ferocity will help Melbourne dramatically.
Further hope for Melbourne fans rests in their 2013 schedule. The Dees play both GWS and the Gold Coast twice, as well as the Bulldogs. They only play Fremantle from 2012’s top eight twice. Furthermore, the Dees will face Port Adelaide, Sydney and West Coast at the MCG; while the latter two are certainly tough, Melbourne prefer their hunting at the ‘G rather than having to travel.
The result is a hard to predict 2013 for Melbourne. Improvement, however, is probably due at least because of their draw. Wins against Port Adelaide, Gold Coast in Melbourne, GWS home and away as well as one against the Bulldogs would already give them 5 and improve on 2012. However, further games such as Essendon once more, beating the Suns at Metricon, defeating the Bulldogs both times and a win against Brisbane would see them improve to 9 wins and certainly not be unexpected.
2013 prediction: 14th (8 wins, 14 losses)
