Usually you get some good value when betting after the bye. Last two years out of the 42 matches when one team was coming off the bye, the team that came off the bye won only 36% of the time. Something punters do not really take into account, in fact some may actually think that a week off is good.
The Hawks are coming off the bye but have won their last nine matches against Carlton. The Blues play their second Friday night match in a row and for the year, while this is the first one for the Hawks. After Sydney’s walloping of the Crows at AAMI last week, the premiership favourite will want to send a message back to the reigning premiers on the big stage. Carlton may do their best to put a fight but the Hawks will put in a four quarter performance and by the final whistle will be well ahead of the -25.5 line offered by Betfair and the bet of the round.
Fremantle this year have beaten the betting lines on no fewer than seven occasions, and have done so in their last five consecutive matches. They are continually underrated as opposed to their opponents the Lions who have only managed to do it on three occasions this year. The Dockers are in red hot form while the Lions have lost four their last five games. Expect a demolishing here with Fremantle to easily cover the -45.5 offered by Luxbet.
Ever since Port’s 5-0 start to the season they have gone off the rails having lost every single game. They have also not beaten a betting line since round six. That is not to say that GWS have done any better, having lost every game this year, but they did give the Cats a bit of shake up at Skoda last week. The margin will not blowout to what bookies think given it is at Skoda again and Port are coming off the bye. GWS with a flying start to the game for the second week in a row and should at the very least be within the +30.5 line offered by Sportsbet.
Adelaide last week were given a royal whack by the reigning premiers, meanwhile the week before Richmond showed they can bounce back from poor a performance the week before. So this week it is the Crows turn and they should get off to a rabid flyer given the Tigers had the week off. Expect the Crows to make it a close one and Sportsbet is offering the best line at +20.5 against a team they beat last year.
The Dogs get some key players back this week and are now on a roll with two wins on a trot. They should not beat the Pies, but Collingwood still have several key players out. Centrebet is offering the best line at +38.5 they should get well within that.
Current Betting Fund: $1,060.50
Total staked so far: $513.50
Carlton v Hawthorn – Handicap (-25.5) – $200 @ $1.94 Betfair
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions –Handicap (-45.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Luxbet
GWS v Port Adelaide –Handicap (+30.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Richmond v Adelaide –Handicap (+20.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Centrebet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
