Fremantle this year for a top four contender has beaten the betting lines on eight occasions, the most in the AFL – last year both grand finalists were leaders in this category. Freemantle also have the second best undefeated run in the AFL behind premiership favourite Hawthorn and they have conceded the least amount of points this year – over a third of grand finalist teams have this record. The weekly punt bets weekly but this week long term investments on the Dockers are looking attractive. Fremantle are now a serious chance of making the grand final as they only have to face three top eight teams in the remaining ten fixtures, which include, Port Adelaide at home, Richmond at the MCG at Geelong at Simonds this weekend. Fremantle win this week they will go outright second on the ladder and should sail through to the finals. To top it off then they will get Pavlich and Sandilands back before September. Put $50 on Fremantle for the flag with Sportsbet who are still offering the best odds at $7.50. Some bookmakers are offering less than $6 now and expect them to go as good as second best favourite if they beat Geelong. Hawthorn also looks like they will make the Grand Final, Sportsbet again will give you the best odds for the Hawthorn/Fremantle Grand Final Quinella at $9 and another $50 well invested.
Everybody continues to forget that Fremantle are unbeaten for eight matches in a row, yet Geelong start clear favourites according to the bookmakers. The Cats had to travel back from the Gabba with their tails between their legs and key players still out. Forget the home ground advantage, Ross Lyon’s team managed to beat them last year away from home in a final. Fremantle should win so we are putting $100 for the win and $200 on the line as the bet of the round.
Richmond is really coming on this year by putting many teams to the sword early in games. They play the Saints this week and while this used to be a close encounter, the Tigers are now a class above the Saints. The line is just way too small again this week for Richmond and Pinnacle will give you the best odds and line of $1.935 at -27.5.
One thing Essendon have done this year is continually is defy the odds with the scandal hanging above their head, in fact, Bombers have beaten the betting lines the equal most in the AFL, eight times: twice as many times as their opponents this week, the Eagles. The Dons have too much going for them this week, they are playing better this year, in better form, smashed them in their last encounter, have far less injuries and West Coast is coming off the bye. Essendon will win this comfortably and Betstar is offering the best line this week at -4.0.
The Hawks in their 11 game win streak have been winning by an average margin of 40 points. During that win streak they have played the Pies, Swans and Fremantle – beating each of those teams by at least six goals in each game. They should be at least up by that margin by three quarter time against the Lions down at Aurora. Expect Buddy to outscore the Lions this week with their leading goal-kicker Roughead the focus. The Hawks -45.5 line with Luxbet is one of the better bets you will make this week.
Surely the Crows this week will draw a line in the sand and save their season. A loss to the Suns this week would mean goodbye finals 2013 for last year’s preliminary finalist. The Suns have several key players out so expect the Crows to win by a lot more than the -6.5 line offered by Sportsbet.
Is Port back to their early season good form after beating last week’s premiers? We will certainly find out this week this week as the play against another tough opponent in their second successive game at AAMI. Remember last week Sydney lost because they came off the bye as so will the Pies too this week if they do not bring their a-game. The +20 handicap for Port with Luxbet is looking good.
The Kangaroos may not how to win close games but when they do win they win well. In three of their four wins this year they have won by at least 54 points. On the other hand their opponents GWS have lost every game this year by an average margin of 70 points. It is no surprise that North have beating the betting lines seven times this season as opposed to the Giants having done so only four times. The +75.5 looks like a pretty easy target for the Kangaroos this week.
Current Betting Fund: nil
Total staked for 2013: $1593.50
Geelong v Fremantle – Handicap (+16.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Sportsbet
Richmond v St Kilda –Handicap (-28.5) – $200 @ $1.935 Pinnacle
West Coast v Essendon –Handicap (-4.0) – $200 @ $1.92 Betstar*
Geelong v Fremantle – WIN– $100 @ $2.75 Centrebet*
Hawthorn v Brisbane –Handicap (-45.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Gold Coast v Adelaide –Handicap (-6.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Port Adelaide v Collingwood –Handicap (+20) – $150 @ $1.92 Luxbet
GWS v North Melbourne –Handicap (+75.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Fremantle/Hawthorn – Grand Final Quinella – $50 @ $9 Sportsbet
Fremantle – To Win the Flag – $50 – $9 @ $50 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
*money back if loser scores 90 points or more with Centrebet
