After a really good start to the year, the Weekly Punt has had a couple of shocking weeks and is now in the red. Does the formula need to be revisited? After being as high as 200% in profit, at this point we are currently running at only 13% loss for the year. In other words this is as bad as the weekly punt has fared and we should see a reversal for the second half of the year.
There is a reason why we keep betting on the Hawthorn even though they have payed out less than half the time this year on the line. Last year after round 23, the Hawks had paid out on the line 64% of time, the most in the AFL: Belting a lot of teams they finished on top of the ladder with a percentage of 154%. This year with a tougher start to the season the Hawks sit with 145%. In some ways the Hawks have eased somewhat against teams they should easily beat and belted premiership favourites Sydney, Fremantle and Collingwood. Eventually the Hawks will ramp it up again as top spot is far from secured and there will definitely be profit to be made on them in second half of this year. This week they play the Eagles and like the Hawks, they probably should have lost their last fixture. Both will try and make sure they leave nothing to fate but the Hawks will be way too strong for the Eagles this week and Betfair is offering the best line in the bet of the round.
Fremantle last week had almost beaten the line with 20 seconds to go, which would have made it five in a row for beating lines. While it cost the weekly punt last week, this week we should get our money back. The Kangaroos may have not long ago thought they were a top four team but they have not played a well drilled forward defensive team like the Dockers. Scott’s gameplan will be severely exposed and the Dockers will absolutely embarrass the Roos. Take Fremantle with Luxbet who will give you the best line this week.
The Swans are really starting to look good, so much that many are tipping them to be the first team in over a decade to become back-to-back premiers. There is a lot of water under bridge before September, but the Swans have a very good record against their opponents in Port this week. Sydney have also eaten the betting lines in the last three matches. This means that everyone is back to underrating the Swans on a weekly basis and the line -35.5 with Pinnacle this week is good value.
History says that when a coach is sacked teams tend to over perform the week after. But that is not the main reason to taking the Dees-minus-Neeld this week. St Kilda has forgotten how to win also, and just like the Dees, they have only won one game in their last eight matches. The Dees improved performance should see them beat the line +40.5 line offered by Sportsbet.
Current Betting Fund: $447.00
Total staked so far: $666.50
Hawthorn v West Coast – Handicap (-30.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betfair
Fremantle v North Melbourne –Handicap (-21.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Port Adelaide v Sydney –Handicap (-35.5) – $100 @ $1.885 Pinnacle
St Kilda v Melbourne –Handicap (+40.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
