The Weekly Punt is still making profit this year despite only three out of eleven times the bet-of-the-round coming up. This is due to getting most others right every week. I am underlying yet again that the one of the keys to successful punting in the AFL is to make sure you do not overstake on any game. There is a range of things that can go wrong in a game; injury to players, a bad run of umpiring, an unlucky bounce, a change of gameplan, torrential rain and so on. It is also the reason we never suggest multi-bets or exotic bets. Now that is not to say you cannot win or have fun putting these bet types but you should still be mindful on how much you stake. As far as I am concerned it is much more fun when you are winning all the time and that is what the weekly punt aims to do each year. And so with that here are the best bets this week.
What many punters do not realise about Sydney right now is that they have a large injury list. In previous years the Swans were underrated due to been in NSW and therefore out of sight and out of mind. But after their premiership they immediately came back on the radar. That still does not change the fact that most of the Swans players are not household names and therefore punters tend to expect a certain type of performance each week regardless of selection. And with the Swans currently suffering a long injury list you should not expect great performances. In their previous encounter with GWS, the Swans won by only 30 points and with a stronger side. Hopefully this week GWS will break the bet of the round curse and with the massive line offered by Pinnacle of +75.5 they will get well within.
Port Adelaide has beaten the betting lines on nine occasions this year, the second best in the AFL. The weekly punt also thinks that they play Hawthorn at the right time after suffering their first loss since round one. Right now Hawthorn is not playing that well, while Port at AAMI is becoming a bit of a fortress. Many expect Hawthorn to be fired up but it will not be this week. Take the Port line with Luxbet who will give you the best handicap at +26.
There is no doubt that Fremantle is the best team in WA right now. Conversely the Eagles if it was not for some close wins would have all but kissed finals goodbye. West Coast will be hopeful to get four points in the return derby but expect a much healthier Fremantle to do the derby-double for 2013. The Eagles are the worst in the AFL when it comes to beating betting lines so Fremantle should comfortably win this one. Sportsbet will give you the best line this week at -8.5 for Fremantle.
While the bet on Carlton last week did not payout, it now serves for good value this week. After St Kilda’s excellent performance last week against Fremantle in Perth, many think this will be a close game. What is often overlooked is the two extra days to recover for Carlton at home, meanwhile the Saints had to travel back from Perth. Why do you think Riewoldt was given a week off against Fremantle? The Blues will bring their A-game this week so expect them to easily cover the line offered by Sportsbet who again will give you the best handicap at -18.5.
Current Betting Fund: $1,985.00
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Sydney v GWS –Handicap (+75.5) – $200 @ $1.952 Pinnacle
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Handicap (+26) – $150 @ $1.91 Luxbet
West Coast v Fremantle –Handicap (-8.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Carlton v St Kilda –Handicap (-18.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
