And I am not talking about AC/DC’s best-selling album. The weekly punt had a few poor weeks with line bets recently but managed to get back into profit in even less of the time it had taken to fall into the red zone. Last week it made betting look easy with all the tips coming up except for one, the bet of the round in Fremantle. But by never over staking on one game it becomes the key to a winning strategy. There were also long term investments for the Dockers which now look to be not so great, but you never know and a lot can happen between now and September.
Talking about consistency you would not think Adelaide would fall under that banner but their opponents are West Coast this week, a team which has been consistently poor in effect due to its problematic injury run. It is the reason the Eagles have only beaten the betting lines on four occasions – the equal least in the AFL. On the other hand, Adelaide has beaten it seven times and they are playing at home with a little bit of extra confidence from beating Gold Coast on the road last week. This will not be a close game, the Crows will show they are back to their 2012 form and this week’s bet of the round will come up; take the -5.5 line this week with Sportsbet.
Had you compared Sydney and Melbourne a few weeks ago it would have been like comparing a super-car with an old and rusted Commodore. It is amazing what a fortnight and a new coach can do to change things around. Melbourne in the last two weeks have been playing with a freedom and zest they did not have under Neeld and the Swans will most likely be caught unawares. The Swans on the underhand are not looking as imposing all of a sudden with a loss to Port, a scrappy win against Carlton, missing several key players and there is enough reason to think the Dees could cause some real issues at the MCG. The Dees line this week is too good to pass up especially as they have beaten it two weeks in a row and also because it usually that means it will happen a third time. Take the Demons line with Centrebet who will give you a nice ten goal start.
When it comes to beating betting lines, two teams this year lead the way with nine each, Essendon and Port. They also happen to be playing against each other this week. Both of them have beaten the lines in the first five rounds and in the last three weeks, creating an interesting symmetry. So who will be the first to ten beaten lines for 2013? Essendon. Port Adelaide is riding high on adrenaline this year but Essendon without much fuss sits third on the AFL ladder. The current betting line really should be a greater handicap. For some additional profit this week take the Bombers with the -23.5 line this week.
After talking up the Dockers last week, the weekly punt is now off them, for now. Their abysmal display probably suggested there is some kind of downward slide. Their opponent the Saints are not getting reward for effort and will probably cause the Dockers a few problems. With Fremantle’s current injury woes take the Saints with Sportsbet who will offer the best odds and best line at +48.5.
Hawthorn last loss did come at the fate of Geelong, in fact their last eleven games against the Cats have resulted in losses. The Kennett-curse is definitely a reality, but we need to get real. Hawthorn has won twelve games straight and sits on top of the ladder with the best percentage. That in itself overrides anything else, Hawthorn will win. Put $100 for the Hawks with Sportsbet to win, who will offer their best odds for them head-to-head for the year at $1.70*.
The game on Friday looks like the kind of game that will be decided with a kick after the siren and that is how close the weekly punt thinks Carlton and Collingwood are at the moment. There is also just as much at stake, but when it comes to staking Carlton have been beating the lines far more often than Collingwood; the Pies are the worst in the AFL. But there is no line this week and Collingwood still have plenty of outs, so Carlton should have the edge. Put $100 on Carlton to win with Sportsbet who are offering $1.87*.
Current Betting Fund: $1827.00
Total staked for 2013: $1593.50
Adelaide v West Coast –Handicap (-5.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Melbourne v Sydney – Handicap (+60.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
Essendon v Port Adelaide –Handicap (-23.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Betstar
Fremantle v St Kilda –Handicap (+48.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Geelong v Hawthorn – WIN– $100 @ $1.70 Sportsbet*
Carlton v Collingwood – WIN– $100 @ $1.87 Sportsbet*
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
*money back if team loses by 20 points or more with Sportsbet
