Last week the weekly punt recorded its very first donut for the year. It has been a dire two weeks but it does not undo two good years of excellent results. Last year the weekly punt increased its stake by 400% and this year it is still at break even. We also have some long term bets like Hawthorn/Fremantle grand final quinella and Fremantle premiership, and should any of those come up it will be a big pay day.
Fremantle has beaten the betting lines the second most in the AFL this year. They tend to be underrated because there is a perception that Ross Lyon is happy to win by low scoring than playing an attacking brand of football. Last week they showed against the Giants they can win big and given GWS accounted for Melbourne easily a week before that, the weekly punt expects another massive win for the Dockers against the Dees. There is no doubt that the Dockers will beat the -65.5 from Luxbet for the third week in a row.
The weekly punt thinks that Adelaide is a great team and the most underrated team in the competition. The Crows are the best in the AFL at beating the betting lines; twelve times so far in 2013. In fact they have beaten the betting lines the last five consecutive weeks and this week they are up against the Dogs who have also beaten the betting lines in the last five weeks. They could of quite easily have beaten Geelong, Hawthorn and Fremantle this year if few things have gone their way. So the more consistent Crows should easily account for the -5.5 line against the Dogs and Sportsbet who will give you the best return at $1.92.
The Tiger army is on the march and ready to take down September. In fact they are very likely to finish top four now with Sydney’s upcoming difficult fixture. But this week it is pretty simple for the Tigers: beat Carlton. The line is at -19.5 with Pinnacle but expect a much bigger win for the Tigers.
Essendon has lost their last three and as usual their end of season decline has already begun. Forget the scandals, Essendon will not be able to match it with the Roos (who are the equal second best at beating betting lines this year), especially with so many of their key players out. Put your hard earned on the North line of -16.5 with Betsar before it balloons out to no value.
Premiership favourites Hawthorn have beaten the betting lines only four times in their last twelve matches. The play Collingwood on Friday night who have now beaten the betting lines two weeks in a row. They are also looking much more settled than the Hawks and should get up in what may surprise many pundits this week. Just to be safe will take +12.5 line with Centrebet for the Magpies.
The Eagles are the worst in the AFL at beating the betting lines so it is no surprise we are betting against them again this week. But that is not the only reason, Geelong are arguably the best team in the competition right now and the -12.5 line with Sportsbet does not sit well with the weekly punt.
Current Betting Fund: $1,580.35
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Melbourne v Fremantle– Handicap (-65.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide– Handicap (-5.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Richmond v Carlton–Handicap– $200 (-19.5) @ $1.909 Pinnacle
Essendon v North Melbourne– Handicap (-16.5) – $200 @ $1.9 Betstar
Hawthorn v Collingwood– Handicap (+12.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet
West Coast v Geelong– Handicap (-12.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
