The weekly punt has not done too well in the last few weeks but looking at the odds this week springs optimism. Although interstate home ground advantage this year has been the worst it has ever been, it appears now punters have swayed too far into barely taking it into account, and because of it most the home teams are seen as excellent value.
The Crows did not pay out last week against the Dogs but they still remain the best team at paying out on betting lines this year. They play Melbourne who usually get smashed and the Dees also pay out less than half the time on the line. Expect a thrashing at AAMI, especially with all the Demons casualties at the moment. The -60.5 line with Betstar for the Crows is just not large enough.
If you have read the weekly punt recently you will know that it has been stated that the Cats are the best team in the competition. They dismantled West Coast last week like they were a bottom four side. Geelong will not get the exact same result this week against the reigning premiers but it will get something close. Geelong thrashed Sydney last time they met at Simonds this time last year and the same will happen again. The line of -12.5 with Centrebet for Geelong should be covered before half time.
The weekly punt normally does not bet on GWS but this week is an exception. It is the Giants last game at Skoda for the year and rest assured they will want to send off Sheedy with a good performance. Their opponents the Tigers are no doubt a better team but they have their eyes on those finals the Tiger faithful long after. The weekly punt promises you that the GWS line of +64.5 with Betstar will come up this week.
The weekly punt was blown away by Hawthorn last week and expect for a similar performance this week against the Kangaroos. The Hawks want to go into September with some good form and they should easily cover the -18.5 line with Pinnacle who will give you a generous $2.04.
The Suns are not in the best form right now but they play a team who are in even worse form. The Saints have lost their last eight games in a row and have only won one game in their last thirteen, and that was against Melbourne. Gold Coast for the win and on the line is too good to pass up this week. For the Suns the best odds to win are with Betfair at $2.12 and TAB will give the best line at +4.5.
We keep betting on Fremantle on the line and they keep paying out. Their opponents Port on the other hand have only paid once on the line in their last seven games, and that was against the Cats after they had put their foot right off the pedal after been up by ten goals. Fremantle will keep Port at arm’s length and cover the -32.5 line with Sportsbet well before the final whistle.
Current Betting Fund: $1,486.35
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Adelaide v Melbourne– Handicap (-60.5) – $200 @ $1.87 Betstar
Geelong v Sydney– Handicap (-12.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
GWS v Richmond–Handicap– $200 (+64.5) @ $1.87 Betstar
North Melbourne v Hawthorn– Handicap (-18.5) – $200 @ $2.04 Pinnacle
St Kilda v Gold Coast– Handicap (+4.5) – $200 @ $1.85 TAB
Fremantle v Port Adelaide– Handicap (-32.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
St Kilda v Gold Coast–H2H – $100 @ $2.12 Betfair
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
