The Weekly Punt will take no exotic bets this week just Hawthorn straight up because it is all about value… but take the draw for insurance.
There are a lot of unknowns coming into a grand final and sometimes you should expect the unexpected due to the uniqueness of the game. Hawthorn come in as the best side this year and with their tough draw have still managed to score the most, ended with the best percentage and finished on top of the ladder. Fremantle on the other hand has had a softer draw but it has been offset by some key players missing for most of the year, of most note Sandilands and Pavlich. It is the reason why the weekly punt took their odds of $9 back in June for the flag, especially given how good they were defensively. So why did the weekly punt not also take the Hawks if they have been the best team all season?
Hawthorn has never paid much more than $3 this year for the premiership and they are paying currently $1.70 to win the grand final. In other words, $3 was never seen as good value. Think about how they nearly lost the preliminary final last week and they still have to win on the weekend. Fremantle on the other hand has shortened from as far $17 back even in May to now around $2.30 with the bookmakers. With the possibility of Fremantle getting up for their first ever flag, the weekly punt has $450 to play with, so now it really comes down to how much Hawthorn is predicted to win in order to decide how much is staked on them. The weekly punt does regard Fremantle as the second best team in 2013 and not just because they made the grand final. They dispatched Geelong at Simonds Stadium in fine fashion in the first week of the finals and that is something of a rarity in the last seven years. Last week’s performance against Sydney only reaffirmed it.
Fremantle strength comes from their defensive pressure in the forward half, their ability to lock the ball in their attacking side of the ground is the best in the competition. It is an excellent counter to Hawthorn’s strength, their attack from half-back. But Hawthorn are in slightly better health and form, and while they will not score as much as they do against other teams, expect them to still get enough to entries inside 50 to steal beat Fremantle. The big question mark is Hawthorn’s accuracy in front of goal, something they struggled with not only in last year’s grand final but also in the finals this year. Last week the weekly punt put $300 on Fremantle on the line and funnily enough the profits are now going to be used to back against them even though there is also money on them to win: it is all about value. Hawthorn should get up by 14 points and there are fair few mathematical models the weekly punt follows that predict a similar result, so it is $300 for Hawthorn to win the grand final with Betfair who are offering the best odds at $1.71. Betstar is offering $34 for the grand final to be replayed; so drink one less scotch and put $10 on the draw just in case neither team is ahead on Saturday.
So unless their is a second draw in a decade, the weekly punt signs off for the year, and regardless of the result on Saturday it has shown punters how to profit on AFL for the second year running and it is still a far better option than six month term-deposit with a bank.
Betting Fund 2013: $1606.85
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Hawthorn v Fremantle – H2H– $300 @ $1.71 Betfair
Draw – $10 – @ $34 Betstar
