The weekly punt predicts that Friday night will be one way traffic while Saturday could go either way; here is why.
It is amazing how far Port Adelaide have progressed since last year and here they are playing against the great Geelong team for a chance to play Hawthorn in a preliminary final. But Port Adelaide’s good run for 2013 will eventually come to an end and the question is not if but when. The weekly punt thinks it is this week.
Port has been down by ten goals against Geelong in both games this year and the final scores may have balloned out if Geelong had not put their foot off the pedal. The Cats have hardly put a foot wrong all year and their five losses have been by an average margin of eight points. Put that in contrast to Port who have lost five games this year by five goals or more and at one stage lost five in a row, and you have a huge gap in class. Port’s form may have been good last week (the weekly punt advised to bet them on the line) but before that they had only beaten a betting line once in nine matches (coincidentally against Geelong).
The Cats this week will play four quarters and will not give Port an inch and take away their possession game that held them in good stead last week against Collingwood. Take Geelong on the -26.5 line with Bookmaker who will give you excellent odds of $1.95.
North Melbourne gained the biggest reputation this year of having too many close losses, but Carlton in many respects have done the same. The Blues have lost eleven games this year with nine of those by five goals or less. Most notably five losses have been by 15 points or less. Sydney on the other hand are coming in having lost four of their last five games by an average margin of 35 points. Yes it is finals and many expect the Swans to turn it up but that is not good form, and neither is the fact that the Swans are still missing key players through injury. Given the unique the opportunity that has presented itself for the Blues the weekly punt knows that Carlton will take this game to final whistle and do better than the 22 point defeat they suffered at the SCG back in round 14. With the game at ANZ this time it is another reason to take the Blues on the line and Sportsbet still the only one offering +21.5 line with the confirmation of Goodes now out for the season.
Betting Fund 2013: $1,504.85
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Geelong v Port Adelaide – Handicap – (-26.5) $300 @ $1.95 Bookmaker
Sydney v Carlton – Handicap – (+21.5) $300 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
