North Melbourne vs. Richmond
At Blundstone Arena, under lights (in Tassie), it’s a chance for North to forget about last week’s loss to Sydney, their first for the season, and get back on the winners list. That said, Richmond are on a roll, and despite sitting around the lower half of the league ladder, a confident Tigers outfit is never an easy kill. It’ll be a close game, even more so if All-Australian ruckman, Todd Goldstein, doesn’t play, or plays under an injury cloud. The question is, which Richmond team and which North Melbourne team will show up? Both teams are capable of winning this one, but only if all their players are switched on. It’s a home game for the Roos and they usually play well at Blundstone. North: 1-39.
Hawthorn vs. Melbourne
Weirdly, Hawthorn are still winning most of their games in the last quarter. Not sure why they cruise for half a game, then put the foot down toward the end, but that’s what they seem to be doing of late. It’s risky footy, but it’s working, for now. They’ll win comfortably over Melbourne, especially with Jack Viney out. Melbourne have improved in leaps and bounds this season, but when it comes to this particular game, well, Melbourne are still Melbourne and Hawthorn are still Hawthorn. Nothing’s changed. Hawthorn – 25+
Carlton vs. Brisbane
This was one game I saw Brisbane winning at the start of the season. Not now. Brisbane don’t travel well. Sure, they tried harder at the Gabba last week, but they still got a thumping in the final quarter and it ended up being a big win to Hawthorn. With two men down, Carlton fought on bravely and they were totally dominant over the Cats last Sunday to score the upset of the season (so far). This game will be no different. In fact, it should be much, much easier. Carlton – 25+
Geelong vs. GWS
At Simmond Stadium, Geelong’s fortress, I’d usually say this one is a no-brainer for the home team. However, the way the Cats have been playing, and the way GWS have been playing, Geelong look slow and sloppy and GWS look fast and slick. I would not be at all surprised if GWS get the four points. One thing’s for certain. Stevie J knows his way around the Geelong ground. He’ll turn it on and he’ll once again remind the Cats what a huge mistake it was to let him go. GWS – 1-39
Gold Coast vs. Sydney
At Metricon, and with some extremely nasty weather said to be rolling in (up to 75mm of rain predicted within a 12-hour period on Saturday), the margin could end up being closer than expected. Sydney will win, no doubt, but by how much? A slippery surface and the possibility of heavy rain throughout, means a wet, heavy ball. It’ll most likely be a low scoring slog. It’s Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin’s 50th game for the Swans and he should kick his team to a pretty convincing win. Even in trying conditions, I can’t see the Suns coming within six or seven goals of the new flag favourites. Sydney – 40+
Fremantle vs. Essendon
Well, what an interesting game this has turned out to be. Fremantle are entering Round 11 – winless! Essendon, with one win, are showing signs of improvement, albeit for three quarters, usually fading in the last, and losing by margins that don’t truly indicate their competitive spirit throughout. At Domain Stadium, the Dockers are favourites to take their first win for the season, as they should. But will they? Hmmmm….I’m not confident, but I’ll still tip them. Fremantle – 1-39.
Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide
Collingwood are the walking wounded, which now paves the way for the return of Travis Cloke, probably earlier than coach, Nathan Buckley, would have liked. His hand may be forced to throw Cloke into the selection mix after four key players are ruled out for several weeks due to various injuries. Cloke doesn’t play well under pressure. We know that. His first kick will once again tell us what his day in front of goal will be like. All eyes will be on him, which won’t help, and Sunday night’s headlines will surely declare, “He’s Back!” or “He’s Done!” depending on his performance in this very game. Even though it’s being played at the MCG, Port are now playing well at home, and away. The positives are stacking up in their favour. Port beat Melbourne convincingly last week in Alice Springs, youngster, Darcy Byrne-Jones just got the Round 10 Rising Star nod (finally!), their mid-field is humming, and Charlie Dixon has his groove back. I think they’ll be too strong for a patched up Magpies outfit, with or without Cloke up forward. Port Adelaide – 1-39.
Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast
At Etihad, the Bulldogs should be a lock, but they’ve looked a little off the last couple of weeks. They’re not playing as fast and as clean as they had been earlier in the season. They were lucky to get the win against Collingwood last week. The Magpies looked the stronger team all day. Injuries depleted the Pies in the last quarter and the Dogs took advantage, getting the four points. The Eagles have just got to start winning more away games. I think they’ll be too tall and too slick for the Doggies this week. It’s a big game for both teams. West Coast – 1-39.
Adelaide vs. St. Kilda
Last game of the round, at Adelaide Oval and the Crows will squash the Saints. They’re just too good on their home ground, especially with the home crowd behind them. It should be an easy win. Adelaide 40+
Best Bets
Multi #1 – North Melbourne vs. Richmond, Collingwood vs. Port, Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast, Fremantle vs. Essendon, Geelong vs. GWS – all bets in a multi @ either team under 39.5 = $4.16
Multi #2– Hawthorn, Carlton, Sydney, Adelaide – all over 15.5 = $3.62
Most goals of the round – Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin @ $3.50
Rising Star – I can’t see anyone beating Callum Mills to the Rising Star nomination this week. He’s long overdue and he’s playing solid footy that’s way beyond his years in Sydney’s backline. No doubt he’ll put in another great game against a depleted Gold Coast Suns and that’ll be enough for him to get the Round 11 nomination. At the time of this initial writing, he was showing 18-1. Thanks (not!) to being talked up on Wednesday night’s AFL360 program on Fox Footy, he was crunched in to $13. By Thursday evening, he was in to 9-1! He’ll come in further if he gets the nomination for this round. Get on!
