AFL Tips & Best Bets – Round 13, 2016

With the first of the bye rounds upon us, it means we’ve only got a small sampling of football to satisfy us for the next few weeks. This round, Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond and St. Kilda all take a well-earned break.

Let’s take a look at the games ahead…

This clash between North Melbourne and Hawthorn looks to be the match of the round. The Roos were hit with more than their fair share of in-game injuries in last week’s game. They’re still clinging to top spot on the ladder, but there are a handful of teams, including the Hawks (currently in fifth spot), who are nipping at their heels. I expect Hawthorn to take full advantage of an undermanned North Melbourne side and get the win. It’ll be a close, hard fought contest for three quarters, but as usual, Hawthorn will pull away in the last quarter and get the four points. Sam Mitchell will be back for this game. He missed last week’s Friday night match against Essendon with a niggling back complaint. Hawthorn skipper, Luke Hodge, is expected to return by Round 14. Somehow, despite early injuries, Hawthorn has still managed to maintain a top eight spot and bank those important early wins. With Hodge likely to be back next week, they’ll be even stronger in the second half of the season. Scary, huh? Hawthorn 1-39.

Despite the Eagles stopping for half a game last week against the Crows, they don’t even have to start to get a win over the Lions this week. Nic Nat is out after Achillies surgery, but the rest of the team could run on half a tank and still get a massive win here. The powers-that-be at the Lions keep banging on about most of their out of contract players re-signing, which apparently shows their faith and belief in the future of the club. Let’s be real. This is not a show of anything in the club. This is easy money coming from a desperate club that’s willing to give it, just so they can field a team. These are second and third tier players who are laughing all the way to the bank because no other team would offer them a Snickers bar, let alone a contract! Of the current players fit enough to take the field, skipper, Tom Rockliff, and mid-fielder, Dayne Zorko are the only two players with true worth that the Lions have in their den. The rest are merely filling numbers. Rant over. West Coast – 60+

By Round 10, Fremantle were winless. Now, they’ve won two in a row, and by massive margins at that, albeit against lowly opposition. This week is a real test. Port Adelaide are traveling to Domain Stadium, and they’re coming off a brutal game, and a narrow loss, against the Western Bulldogs. Additionally, going west is the hardest “road trip” in the competition. There’s a lot against Port this week. I feel as though they may have hit a mid-season wall of fatigue. Last week’s game would have taken a lot out of them, and to not get that win, it hurts. Can they get up and go hard again? Do they have it in them? I’m not so sure. No doubt, Port are most definitely the better side on paper, but Fremantle are confident, they’re at home, and they may well be meeting their opposition while they’re down. The Dockers are a sneaky chance of getting a hat trick of wins here. I’m backing them in – Fremantle – 1-39.

This one could go either way. Just when we think the Bulldogs might tire, they keep on going and going. You know, like the Energizer Bunny! After a gutsy away win over Port Adelaide last week, taking on Geelong back at Etihad should be a piece of cake, right? Luke Beveridge better do something about Patrick Dangerfield though. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know he clocked up a record-high 48-disposal game against North Melbourne last week. His speed and run in the middle won Geelong that game. If Dangerfield had a cape…he’d fly! Oh yeah, Selwood wasn’t too bad either with 38 disposals to his name. Honestly, those two are like Batman and Robin. They just don’t have the cool costumes, or the Batmobile, or the Batcave…but, in my head, it’s still a really solid superhero duo comparison. Anyway, I digress… for the Bulldogs to have any chance of winning this game, Dangerfield must be tagged and reined in this week. Big Tom Hawkins is back after a week’s suspension. That said, his absence last week didn’t hamper Geelong’s ability to score. They actually moved more freely and looked far less clogged in the forward fifty because of his omission. Funny what a forced out can do for a side, isn’t it? Tommy trade bait, maybe? Anyway, I’m going with the Cats – just! Geelong 1-39.

The Swans must be wondering what they’ve done to catch two massive winter storms within a matter of weeks. Sydney is scheduled to cop up to 150mm of rain on Sunday! This time, the Demons get to join the Swans in the mud party. With Kurt Tippett and Gary Rohan out for Sydney and Max Gawn in career best form for Melbourne…well, I’ll stop right there, because none of that talk matters much with the type of weather predicted. When the rains come, the skills go out the window. It evens everything up nicely. Remember, earlier this season, Brisbane came within three points of Sydney in the wet? I rest my case! A wet game is just a matter of always pushing the ball forward, and a whole lot of luck is involved in scoring with a heavy, slippery ball. The Swans will be smarting after losing to the baby Giants, and unlike Melbourne, they know how to play football during a Tsunami! They did it a couple of weeks ago and beat the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium. They can do it again at home. Sydney 1-39.

The last game of the bye round is the twilight match between Essendon and GWS at Etihad Stadium. It’s already been suggested that Stevie J will be rested for this one-sided match-up, but there’s plenty of talent to win this by a margin that’ll be as embarrassing for the league as the Brisbane vs. West Coast game. The only difference is, the Bombers are fielding a less-than-stellar, inexperienced top-up team. What’s Brisbane’s excuse? I’m pretty sure Leppa will think of some nifty explanation before the post-match press conference. Just don’t ask him about his job security, because that would be bad manners, and your mother taught you better than that. Look, we all know that big losses are expected of the Bombers this year, but at least they give it a crack each and every week. They usually play a solid half of football, but they fall away after half time. Most of the Essendon players did a limited pre-season, and that lack of preparation, and lack of fitness is coming back to bite them now. The Bombers were underprepared going in, and now they’re mentally and physically spent. Enthusiasm and adrenaline can only get you so far. One gets the impression the Essendon players are striking the games left to play off the wall of the change rooms. Marking time, so to speak. The final margin in this game could easily be triple digits, which will be about the matching equivalent to the crowd turnout. Seriously! Who’s going to this game? GWS – 100+

*Multi-bet > Hawthorn 1-39, Sydney 1-39, West Coast 40+, GWS 40+ = $8.21

*Both Jeremy Cameron (GWS) and Josh J. Kennedy (WCE) for “6 goals or more” in their respective matches. Get on early when markets open, as these two will be crunched in quickly. Both forwards should kick a bag against poor opposition.

*Rising Star Prediction for Round 13 – Callum Mills (Sydney) is long overdue for a nomination. This kid is fair, and fearless! He puts his head over the ball and defends with his whole body. He’s playing way beyond his years and he deserves to be recognized for his gutsy and consistent efforts. The crystal ball is working nicely at the moment. Lachie Weller (Fremantle) got the Round 12 Rising Star nomination, as predicted in Monday morning’s “Oh Yes! Oh No!” (June 13).