The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines – Round 16, 2016

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Animated!

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Travelling interstate to hold your opponent to a low score is always a reliable way to get yourself squiggling, and that’s what the Crows did after winning 107-47 over Carlton. If they weren’t already, they’re now clearly in the best position on the board.

Sydney had a great week, too, getting some valuable vertical movement from a convincing victory over Geelong at Kardinia. This actually makes the Swans the #1 ranked team on raw squiggle scores; that is, they’re the hardest team to beat in the regular season. But they’re also still in an area of the chart that historically produces many finalists and few premiers. So right now, you would rather be Adelaide.

West Coast did the business over North Melbourne, and Hawthorn over Port Adelaide, and that’s the end of the list of top 8 teams that had good weeks.

GWS have the speed wobbles after their dizzying ascent this year, with one mediocre result and two poor ones from their last three games. North and Geelong were soundly beaten, and the Bulldogs had a dishonourable 10-pt victory over Richmond. Although I hope that was because the Tigers played like a real team for once, rather than because the Bulldogs aren’t one.

Outside the finalists, Collingwood moved a lot, while Carlton and Fremantle sank. Seriously, Fremantle. When you can only score 55 against Melbourne, you have problems. I think Dees supporters will be with me on this one. At least Carlton were playing the squiggle-anointed premier.

And after letting through 22 goals from one of the league’s weakest attacks, Brisbane’s defence rating has become so poor, I almost had to adjust the chart axis. We have to go back to Carlton 2007 to find a team that leaked goals this badly, excluding expansion teams in their first year. They’re even worse defensively than Melbourne 2013, who are my usual modern benchmark for badness.

Ladder Predictor! Jostling continues at the top, although there’s more certainty than we’ve had for a while:

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As we all know, the Ladder Predictor is built from probabilities, factoring in the likelihood of upsets, which is more realistic than assuming favourites always win. But as we get down to the pointy end of the season, it’s worth looking at that version, too. I call it the DRAMATIC LADDER PREDICTOR, because it produces extreme results, like winless seasons:

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Comparing the regular version to the DRAMATIC LADDER PREDICTOR, mostly what we see is that Sydney are in the box seat for the minor premiership. They finish on top either way: whether you weigh up the probabilities of upsets or whether you assume that favourites always win, like the DRAMATIC LADDER PREDICTOR. Adelaide also look good for top 2.

Geelong, meanwhile, nets 17 wins if they do what they’re supposed to, but only 15 wins if we factor in the chance of upsets! And it’s not even because Geelong are great at losing matches they’re supposed to win. Like, dramatically great. It’s just because they have a few games where they’ll probably win but may not, like Adelaide and the Bulldogs (both at Kardinia).

Hawthorn are in a similar boat, with games they should win but might not against North and Collingwood.

And GWS are the only team more likely to unexpectedly pick up a win than drop one. That’s because their expected wins are mostly gimme games (Brisbane, GC) while their expected losses are pretty winnable (North away, Port away, WC away).

Of course, it’s all still very close. Hawthorn and Geelong are also, as it happens, being a little underrated by the regular ladder predictor, since they’re both effectively predicted to win half a game more, but that’s being rounded down, while Sydney are expected to win almost half a game less, which is being rounded up. Bottom line, it’ll come down to which teams can perform when it counts, and a single result — like Sydney vs Hawthorn this Thursday! — can change everything.

Flagpole! I’ve gotta say, Flagpole has done well so far, I reckon. There were times when I looked at it this year and thought, “Adelaide, really?” Or that Hawthorn should have fallen further faster, and Geelong and GWS risen faster. But here at Round 16, the same top 3 it’s had all year of Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast looks pretty good. And it’s been a tough year to tip, with 8 genuine contenders.

Eagle eyes already spotted that West Coast just baaaaaaarely squeaks over Hawthorn here. But more significant is that 4th spot changing again, this time going to Sydney.

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