Round 23…the last round of the home and away season. It’s flown! The top eight is all but set, but exact positions will still be pending the results from this round. It should make for a few good contests.

The controversial post-Round 23 bye will mean the questionable act of resting players on mass isn’t done. Doing so would mean a two-week break before playing finals, and that won’t be beneficial to anyone. Injuries, suspensions and sackings will play a big part in the results this week.

It’s been quite the controversial few days in footy land. It’ll be an emotional last round, on many levels, and for varying reasons.

Let’s take a look at the weekend ahead…

Adelaide vs. West Coast

Nic Nat is out for 12 months with an ACL injury. Rory Sloane has been suspended (wrongly!) for a week. You would think the “star-factor” outs are balanced on both sides this week, but Adelaide’s mid-field is still relatively strong without Sloane. Finding a ruckman to replace Nic Nat is a tough ask. A successful finals campaign for the Eagles without him looks near impossible. A top-two spot for Adelaide rests on this game being won. At home, they’re a great chance, and winning this game ensures them not one, but two, home finals! Incentive much? Adelaide – over 15.5

Geelong vs. Melbourne

The Demons had a chance to go into this game with a chance of making the finals. A loss to Carlton last week has changed everything. How they’ll get over that disappointment to get up for a game that now doesn’t matter is up for debate. It’s coach Paul Roos’ last game as coach. He’s done wonders for Melbourne and it there’s anything left to play for, it’s for him. A nice “departing gift,” as they say in the classic game shows. Geelong play this one at home. On home turf and the last game of the season, they’ll be hungry to get a solid win. The Cats need to win this one to secure a top four spot. Jimmy Bartel will be back after a week’s break and Josh Caddy will be a certain starter. Nakia Cockatoo is also likely to return, though it’s hard to predict who’ll make way for him? Having selection headaches at this end of the season is a spot most clubs would love to be in. Even if Melbourne loses this one, and they will, there’s no denying the progress they’ve made under coach, Paul Roos’ reign. The Demons are finally heading in the right direction. Geelong – over 15.5

Essendon vs. Carlton

This is one of the “nothing” games of the round and it could go either way. The Blues ended a nine-game losing streak and put an end to Melbourne’s dream of playing finals last week. Like some of our Olympians, the Demons believed their own hype and had clearly chalked up the win ahead of actually playing out the game. It came back to bite them – big time! If Essendon win this one and St. Kilda get the win over Brisbane, which they will, the Bombers will avoid getting the wooden spoon. If Joe Daniher can get his kicking boots on and get the ball through the two big sticks, the Bombers are in for a chance of getting one more win for 2016! Considering no one expected them to get a win a game at all, the beleaguered Bombers have had a tough, but promising season. The players will be glad to put the 2016 season behind them. They’ve done well. They’ve been brave. Essendon – 1-39.

Sydney vs. Richmond

This game is almost too cruel to play. Richmond have hit rock bottom. It’s been weeks in the making, but the players just look so disinterested and depressed. It’s hard to watch. It would be kinder to just give Sydney the four points, call it a 60+ point win, and divert the plane from Sydney, straight to Thailand, or Bali, or wherever the end of season trip is for Richmond this year. The Swans need to make up percentage over Adelaide to get top spot. They’ll do it. Sydney 60+

Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide

The Suns’ play this one at home, but they’re coming off a Magpie mauling and their injury list makes the Bulldogs’ injury list look minor, and we all know, that’s a massive understatement. Star forward, Tom Lynch has a leg niggle that will compromise his agility, should he play. Callum Ah Chee will more than likely be rested. Sean Lemmens was taken from the field with concussion last week, so it’s unlikely that he’ll play. Port Adelaide all but snatched the Showdown win from Adelaide last week. But, they’ve been as inconsistent as they come this year, so it’s anyone’s guess which Port Adelaide team will show up to Metricon. If it’s the tough, rough Port Adelaide, they’ll get the win. It will be Jay Schultz’ last game for Port. They’ve decided not to extend his contract for the 2017 season. The Suns’ are just too beaten up, both mentally and physically, to get the win here. Port Adelaide – over 15.5

North Melbourne vs. Greater Western Sydney

We have North Melbourne coach, Brad Scott to thank for the post-Round 23 bye. This time last year, he rested players on mass, which prompted the AFL to put a stop to it happening again, hence the one-week break prior to finals. No doubt, he’ll be the first to complain about it too! This year’s bombshell is that he rests four legends of the club – permanently! Melbourne’s shock loss to Carlton last week means the Roos’ are safely in eighth spot. Win or lose this one, they can’t go anywhere. Wednesday’s shock announcement that Roo veterans, Brent Harvey (38), Drew Petrie (33), Nick Dal Santo (32) and Michael Firrito (32) will not be offered contracts for the 2017 season is a massive pre-finals blow for the morale of the team. The Giants have more to play for, and safe to say, after North Melbourne’s bombshell announcement to cull four much-loved players, the solidarity, structure and spirit of their team will be in a much healthier place. The Giants need this win to make the top four. However, they also need other results to go their way to get that coveted ladder position, and the double chance. Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong or Sydney has to lose, (only one of them) for the Giants to get in to the top four. The Giants will win this one, but it’s doubtful the other four teams will lose their games. GWS – over -15.5. *Interesting fact: This game looks like it could be repeated again next week, in the first final, at Spotless Stadium.

St. Kilda vs. Brisbane Lions

The Cats enjoyed a sixty-point win over the Lions last week. It could have been more. The Cats were cruising, not wanting to injure a star player. You can’t blame them. The Lions had all but stopped in the second half. They get tired and they end up playing half a game of footy. It’s been the pattern all year. It’s the Saints at Etihad this week. The home team will end a very dismal year for the Lions, and will in all likelihood put an end to coach, Justin Leppitsch’s coaching career too. With a win record of 14 wins from 65 games, and an average losing margin of 70 points, Leppitsch has a year to go on his coaching contract. If the Lions decide to let him go, they’ll still owe him as much as $400,000. It’s the only career where you’re contracted to do a job, a job that is all about success and results, but if you underperform, and you get fired, you still get a full pay out. Winning! Spend it wisely, Leppa. The senior coaching gig is up. St. Kilda – 40+

Hawthorn vs. Collingwood

Hawk ruckman, Jon Ceglar ruptured his ACL just minutes before Nic Nat last week. Same game. Same ground. What are the odds? Like Nic Nat, Ceglar is done for the season, and for much of 2017. It’s a cruel blow. Luckily, Jordan Lewis avoided suspension from the MRP, so he’s okay to play. With Hawthorn falling from ladder leaders to fourth spot in one round, a top-two spot is now out of the question. What does this mean? It means the Hawks will either be travelling to Adelaide or Sydney for the first round of finals. A tough gig either way. Pie, Darcy Moore has tweaked his hamstring again. This paves the way for out-of-favour forward, Travis Cloke to return, with what could potentially be his last game in black and white stripes. This is Round 23…anything can happen. Collingwood will want to go out on a winning note, and Hawthorn, will want to start their finals campaign with a solid last-round win. The Hawks have lost two of their last three games. It’s not a stat that is often quoted in relation to the reigning premiers. They can’t possibly lose this one, can they? Hawthorn – 1-39.

Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs

Pav’s last game. His 353rd, and oh, what a career it’s been. Will the Dockers be able to pull it together to get a win for him? Doubtful, but stranger things have happened. Spirit and the sheer will to win can certainly overcome talent on any given day. Pav only needs one more goal to reach 700 career goals. He’ll get that. The Bulldogs are plagued with injuries. They seem to add to the list every week. It’s a weak Doggies’ team going in. Will coach, Luke Beveridge be willing to risk star players on the long trip west? Jake Stringer…will he play, or will he spend another week in the naughty corner – aka the VFL? A double chance is still mathematically possible for the Doggies, but it’s a long shot. The Dogs have to win this game, which is likely. Adelaide has to beat the Eagles on Friday night, which is likely. However, the harder two games that need to go the Dogs’ way are for North Melbourne to beat GWS (possible, but doubtful) and Collingwood to beat Hawthorn (possibly, but doubtful). Too many variables to get a top four spot, and all aforementioned games are played “before” this one, so with results known prior to this game starting, the Dogs may well have nothing to play for. That said, I’m still going for the in-form side to get the win. Thanks for the memories, Pav! Retiring on your own terms…it’s the way all one-club champs should be honoured and respected. Western Bulldogs – 1-39.

Best Bets

Multi-Bet #1 – Adelaide H2H/Geelong over -15.5/Sydney 25+/GWS H2H/St. Kilda 25+ = $3.84

Multi-Bet #2 – Adelaide H2H/Geelong over -15.5/Sydney over -15.5/GWS over -14.5 = $3.77

High/Low Double – St. Kilda-Richmond = $6.00 and Sydney-Richmond = $26.00 (hedge your bet – $50 on each result).

*All odds valid at Sportsbet on August 24, 2016.