Round 22…and the top four could look starkly different at the end of the weekend. Right now, Hawthorn sit on top of the ladder, one game ahead on 64 points. Sydney are second, on 60 points. Adelaide sit third and Geelong sit fourth. Both teams are also on 60 points.
Percentage is key, as are the opposition teams this week, along with the three wins and one loss that could cause Hawthorn to drop from first – to fourth! Hawthorn’s percentage is the lowest of the top four teams. Plenty of close wins means they’re currently sitting on 122.4. Friday night’s game against the West Coast Eagles at Domain Stadium is the hardest game of the four crucial matches to come. Sydney has the best percentage. They currently sit on 146.9. They should get the win over North Melbourne this week. Adelaide are next. They sit on 143.9. They should get the win over Port Adelaide, and boost their percentage even further. Geelong are next. They sit on 135.4. They play the Brisbane Lions at The Gabba this week.
So, with three seemingly easy wins to come for the three teams currently below Hawthorn, the Hawks have to win on Friday night to stay one game ahead. If they don’t, we will be looking at a real shuffle of the top four, and it’ll make Round 23 even more interesting. No coach can afford to rest players this year. The competition is just way too close.
The closest it’s been in years! The Coleman Medal isn’t set either. Eagle, Josh Kennedy is coming into this round with 70 goals for the season. Swan, Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin is three goals behind him on 67. It looks to be a race in two there. Callum Mills (Sydney) is the firming favourite for The Rising Star, and Sydney are now favourites to take out the Premiership. The Swans could get the triple crown…Coleman, Rising Star and the Premiership! The Brownlow seems run and won. Cat, Patrick Dangerfield has been a firm favourite for months and Sportsbet have already paid out on him winning. The smoky is Tiger, Dustin Martin. If he’s received as many umpire votes as he has in media voting, he could very well snatch it.
Let’s have a look at the games ahead…
West Coast vs. Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)
As previously mentioned, this Friday night blockbuster has so much on the line, if your plans don’t include going to Domain Stadium, or calling the local pizza joint for an easy end-of-the-week dinner and a night in front of the TV to watch this game, then your doing the wrong thing! Cancel your plans! Now! This game will be a corker! Hawthorn must win to stay on top of the ladder. It’s that simple. The Eagles have to keep winning to make a play for the top four. It’s a 50/50 ballgame. It’s a toss of the coin as to who’ll get the four points. I’m going for Hawthorn, only because this loss, means they’ll go from first to fourth, and Alistair Clarkson won’t be happy about that slide. Hawthorn – 1-39.
North Melbourne vs. Sydney (Blundstone Arena)
Sydney were clinical against St. Kilda last week, and it only took a half a game to put them to the sword. One gets the impression the Swans’ were just playing with the Saints’ for the first half, in the cat playing with a mouse kinda way. It was a close contest, but after half time, Sydney put the jets on, Buddy got firing, and they coasted to an easy win. After a sluggish start, North Melbourne lost to Hawthorn. Their injury toll hasn’t helped them in the second half of the season, but all teams have excuses, and now isn’t the time to start whining about why you’re not playing your best football. The Roos’ are hanging on to eighth spot on the back of those easy, early season wins. Melbourne, of all teams, are nipping at their heels. If North lose the last two games and Melbourne win theirs, the Demons snatch eighth spot. As I see it, it’ll come down to Round 23 to decide who plays finals. North will lose to Sydney this week, and GWS next week. Melbourne should win over Carlton this week, and they’re going to have to throw everything they have at Geelong in Round 23 to get the fairytale ending. For now, we’ll take it “a week at a time,” as the coaches and players say. Kurt Tippett should return for Sydney this week. That said, the Swans have won six out of their last eight games without him. Tippett or not, this one goes to Sydney – over 15.5
Richmond vs. St. Kilda (MCG)
Gosh, after throwing away a massive three-quarter-time lead against Geelong, how “up” for this game are the Tigers going to be? St. Kilda played half a game of good footy against premiership favourites, Sydney, but they ended up getting thumped by over eleven goals last week. This should be a close match. I can’t split them. In betting terms, I’d be going for the safe option. Either side to win by – under 39.5.
Greater Western Sydney vs. Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)
The Dockers have had a year from hell. Injuries, seven losses in a row to date, and now with news that Hayden Ballantyne wanting to defect to the Eagles, teammates Michael Barlow and Chris Mayne wanting to jump ship, and injured Brownlow Medalist, Nat Fyfe considering all options before re-signing. If coach, Ross Lyon wasn’t contracted for the next 20 years, you’d say his job would be on the line! To say there isn’t unrest at the club is laughable! In preparation for his last career game at home, veteran, Matthew Pavlich won’t travel to Sydney. He’ll be rested this week. His final game will be against the Western Bulldogs in Round 23. You would hope the Dockers’ could get the win for Pav’s last appearance, but the way things are shaping up, it’s highly doubtful. You’d also hope, despite the result of the game, that the TV broadcast will stick around to see Pav chaired off for the last time. Captain, David Mundy will play his 250th game this week. Of course, he’s publicly backed the club and downplayed rumours of a fractured playing group, but the rumbles of trouble are brewing at the Dockers. Anyway, rumours, hearsay and innuendo aside, let’s get on to this week’s match. It looks like ruckman, Aaron Sandilands will miss after a gluteal strain saw him sit out the rest of last week’s game. Sandilands has only just returned from a lengthy spell on the sidelines, so his presence will be sorely missed again. The Giants’ will still be smarting from their narrow loss against the Eagles. That one really hurt. It’s the loss that could keep them from a crucial top four spot. There’s nothing they can do about that now, but they won’t let this WA team get anywhere near them! GWS – 40+
Collingwood vs. Gold Coast Suns (Etihad Stadium)
Collingwood have ruled out Taylor Adams, Ben Reid and Ben Sinclair for the rest of the season. Forward, Travis Cloke looks set to serve out the rest of the year in the reserves and his future at the Pies’ now looks to be in serious doubt. Despite being contracted until the end of 2017, his poor form means his head is on the chopping block. A trade for both him, and Collingwood, might not be a bad scenario. Right now, I see Richmond as the frontrunner in getting Cloke, and in line with Richmond’s typical recruiting style, Cloke is just what they need to fix their problems down at Tigerland…NOT! The Suns were terrible against the Bombers last week. A few dodgy umpiring decisions didn’t help the result, neither did their inaccurate kicking (1.7 in the last quarter alone!), but no matter which way you slice it, excuses aside, losing to Essendon was their low point of the season. The Suns’ have stayed in Melbourne all week long, opting not to fly home and then fly back again a few days later. Those Gold Coast boys will be stone cold! Melbourne weather…for a whole week? Nup! That’s just not good prep for a Queensland team. Collingwood played their guts out against the Western Bulldogs last Friday night. They were unlucky not to snatch the four points. With seconds to go, the result could have gone either way. Based on current form, and with the venue being Etihad Stadium, the Pies’ should get the win here. Collingwood – 1-39.
Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Oh my…this one could get ugly! Adelaide are scoring machines, and Port Adelaide just can’t score! Ladder positions aside, there’s usually a lot of pride on the line when these Showdowns happen, but right now, Adelaide are a world away from Port Adelaide, and I think it’ll be a Crows stampede. Eddie Betts plays his 250th game and ruckman, Sam Jacobs will be back from an ankle injury. On the flipside for Port, Chad Wingard has already had hamstring surgery and he’ll be out for the remainder of the season. Charlie Dixon is also in doubt. A niggling ankle injury has made the latter part of the season a frustrating one for him. Could this Showdown loss be the nail in the coaching coffin for Ken Hinkley? He’s got to be on Kochie’s hit list…Adelaide – 40+
Carlton vs. Melbourne (MCG)
Melbourne still has a slim chance of making the finals. The Demons have everything to play for and they won’t let this one drop. They’ll take care of Carlton in a canter this week. If the Demons can take care of the Cats’ at Simmonds Stadium next week, chances are, the Melbourne Football Club will be playing finals! Who woulda thunk it?! The dream is still alive! I say free coffee for everyone at Max Gawn’s garage/cafe if it happens! Melbourne – over 15.5
Brisbane vs. Geelong (Gabba)
Geelong will take care of Brisbane easily at The Gabba…or at least we think they should, right? The Cats’ need percentage and this is their chance to get it, but consistency is not high on the agenda for Geelong. It took them a while to wind up for a solid win over Essendon two weeks ago, and last week, they looked gone against Richmond, only to snatch a remarkable win by kicking more points in the last quarter than they did for the first three quarters of the match! Footy is a game of four quarters, and unless the Cats’ start playing all four, their finals campaign will be short-lived. It starts this week. Time to play like they mean it. Geelong – 40+
Essendon vs. Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
The Bulldogs will play finals, but they need some of their star players to lift if they’re going to be contenders. Essendon’s upset win over the Suns last week was a great effort, but the Bulldogs are a whole different story. Brendon Goddard will be back to captain the Bombers, and Aaron Francis and Darcy Parish will also return after a week off to freshen up. The Doggies’ should win comfortably. Brownlow Medalist, Adam Cooney will play his 250th, and final game this week. Although he’s now playing for Essendon as a top-up player, he’ll finish his career on Sunday, playing against his old side. A guard of honour from both teams will be an emotional one. Western Bulldogs – over 15.5.
Best Bets
Multi # 1 – West Coast vs. Hawthorn, either team under 39.5, Sydney H2H, Fremantle (away team), 4thquarter, over 1.5 points, Adelaide over -34.5, Melbourne H2H, Geelong over 15.5, Western Bulldogs, over 15.5 = $7.55
Multi # 2 – Sydney, over -18.5, GWS 40+, Adelaide, over -28.5, Melbourne H2H = $6.89
Closest Margin of the Week – West Coast vs. Hawthorn = $5 AND Richmond vs. St. Kilda = $5.50. Hedge your bet and put $100 on each result, for a profit of either $300 or $350.
Lowest scoring team – Fremantle = $3.75
Half time line – Adelaide -16.5 – $1.91
*Odds are valid as of August 17, 2016 with Sportsbet.
