Round 21…lots of exciting games and highlights this weekend…top eight vs. top eight…Dustin Martin vs. Patrick Dangerfield, the unsociable Hawks will be relentless, 200 games for Jack Riewoldt, 100 games for Tom Lynch…and, the very first “Pride Game” between St. Kilda and Sydney.
Let’s break it all down…
Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Both of these sides have had their fair share of injuries. The big news of the week, Travis Cloke has been omitted for the third time this season. When a team who can’t make the finals drops the most expensive player on their list, that sends a very strong message. Has Cloke played his last game for the Pies’? Seems so! Darcy Moore is a welcome inclusion and the big American, Mason Cox is out with a shoulder injury. Ben Reid is also out with a knee issue. Marley Williams has been dropped and Ben Crocker has concussion. It’s a cobbled together Pies’ side this week, especially with captain Scott Pendlebury being named. After leaving the ground with an ankle injury last week, it looked to be a fairly serious issue. He didn’t take any further part in the game, which is rare for Pendles. All of a sudden, he’s now back and ready to play? How fit is he? The Bulldogs’ have somehow managed to tread water and stay in the top eight, despite their injuries. The Pies’ weren’t even close to playing finals. They’ve been frustratingly inconsistent all season. Coach, Nathan Buckley has got to be feeling like it’s 2017…or bust! Collingwood tumble down the ladder further than last year, and the year before, and the year before that. The pressure is building. The Doggies’ will be firing and ready to bank another four points under Friday-night lights. Even with some of their best players out, the Dogs’ will be too slick and too quick for the Pies’. They’ll get the job done on their favoured Etihad turf – Western Bulldogs – over 15.5
Brisbane vs. Carlton (Gabba)
I don’t even know what to say about Brisbane anymore. They lost to Adelaide by 138 points and Brisbane’s NEAFL side lost by a similar margin (135 points). Where’s the depth? Nick Robertson, Daniel Merrett, Josh Walker and Lewis Taylor combined for an embarrassing 10 kicks – combined, against the Crows. Are they running away from the ball? So, what happened on Monday? Brisbane re-signed Lewis Taylor to a three-year deal for a reported $1.2 million! Really? I give up! Brisbane is now whining about needing a priority draft pick. They only have 4 on this year’s list, which puts them at the bottom of all teams. That said, Sydney only have 6 and the Bulldogs have 7, and both of those teams are in the top eight. In contrast, Richmond and Carlton both have 18, and look where they are! There’s no magic, immediate fix to this problem, and adding a bonus draft pick to Brisbane’s list will not fix the mess they’re in. Not by a long shot….well, not unless he’s drafted from Krypton and his name is Kal-El aka Superman! Carlton was just horrible against St. Kilda last weekend. Remember when they were on a winning streak and Brendon Bolton was being lobbied for the next King of Moomba? Seems so long ago now. Well, the Blues’ now lost their last eight games, but they’ve still shown far more than Brisbane this year. It’s not surprising to see them as favourites for this one, despite it being played at the Gabba. With all the unrest at Brisbane and new rumours of ex-Carlton coach, Brett Ratten possibly taking over the senior coaching role next year, it’ll be another horrible afternoon for Justin Leppitsch and his Lions’. Carlton – over 15.5
Hawthorn vs. North Melbourne (MCG)
This one will have a finals-like intensity. There’s always a bit of feeling when these two meet, and with ladder positions and percentages on the line, it will be a rough, tough, hard-fought match. Hawthorn’s, Luke Breust was bullied into submission last time they met. As a result, he had little influence on the game. Will the Roos’ use the same tactics this time? How rough can things get? Both teams will be playing finals, so getting reported is off the table. There’ll be some fine lines walked. No doubt, the MRP will be watching to see if any are crossed. Look, Hawthorn is coming off a shock loss to Melbourne. They’re angry, and consecutive losses for Hawthorn are rare! No one wants to meet a Hawthorn side that are coming off a loss, especially a loss to Melbourne. Unfortunately for the Roos’, they’re going to be on the receiving end of some very unsociable Hawks! Hawthorn – over 15.5
Greater Western Sydney vs. West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
At Spotless Stadium, the Giants are a force to be reckoned with. The Eagles are shaky away from home. The Eagles’ transition from half-back to inside fifty is absolutely horrendous. They rank 15th in the competition in this stat. It means they’re vulnerable and lacking confidence when moving the footy from end to end. Despite a decent with in the Derby against Fremantle last week, the Eagles’ are the underdogs here, and rightly so. The Giants have never beaten the Eagles, but this is their best chance to break that hoo-doo. I think they’ll win quite comfortably at home. GWS – over 15.5
St. Kilda vs. Sydney (Etihad Stadium)
This match could be an interesting contest. Naturally, based on their form and ladder position, Sydney are firm favourites. However, it won’t be an easy win if St. Kilda play the way they’ve been playing of late. Footy aside for a moment…this is the inaugural “Pride Game,” which welcomes diversity and inclusion within our community. The theme of this match was inspired by country footballer, Jason Ball, of the Yarra Valley Mountain District league, who was the first gay football player to bravely come out in 2012. There’ll be rainbow-coloured footballs, umpire flags, 50m arcs, and St. Kilda will have rainbow-coloured numbers on their backs, whilst Sydney players will wear rainbow-coloured socks. Statistically speaking, there are gay footballers playing our sport at a professional level. There are. We just don’t know who they are. However, given the revolting, homophobic slurs that are often spewed over the fence by narrow-minded individuals in the crowd, and even with the sledging that occurs amongst players on the field, you can’t blame these men for keeping quiet. How long will it be before a player at AFL level comes out and honestly owns who they are publicly? Honestly, I think it might be one of our new women players who’ll do it first, and I would love for it to happen this week. The opportunity is there. The door has been opened. Make history. Make a difference. Be the difference! I really hope the crowd going to this game is welcoming and accepting of the occasion. Live and let live. I would hate to hear about ugly crowd incidents that would only serve to set us back even further. This is a brave move by the AFL, and historically, it’s a positive stance toward equality for all. I wholeheartedly applaud it. Now, on to the game…St. Kilda are still a slim chance of making the eight. The trick is, they must win all of their remaining matches, and if that’s not enough of a challenge, they have to hope that North Melbourne lose the rest of theirs. I know, I know, I did say they had a “slim,” chance, and that’s putting it mildly. The “concussion kid,” aka Paddy McCartin could return for the Saints this week. He kicked five goals in the VFL, and if the Saints are going to be any match for Sydney, they’re going to need multiple avenues to getting the score on the board. It won’t be a walkover, but Sydney will be playing finals – that’s certain. They need to stay within that top four section of the ladder, so they won’t be letting this one slide. They’ll get the win. Sydney – 1-39.
Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
Melbourne are coming off their inspiring, gutsy, upset win over the reigning premiers – Hawthorn. That was their big moment for 2016 and they’ll be still coming down from it. Jesse Hogan is back for Melbourne after tweaking his knee when he slid into the point post a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, rookie, Sam Weideman, who played an amazing game on debut last week, has made way for Hogan. That’s just the way of the pecking order…Weideman earned a spot this week, there just wasn’t anywhere to put him. Port Adelaide are as inconsistent as the come. At times, they’ve been absolutely riveting to watch, clinical even, but they’ve also been shockingly awful. Sometimes these distinct discrepancies can happen from one week to the next. There’s a good Port Adelaide and a bad Port Adelaide. At home, they’re usually a hard nut to crack. I’m going for the good Port Adelaide to come out and play this week. Port Adelaide – 1-39
Essendon vs. Gold Coast (Etihad Stadium)
Essendon are buggered and they’ll be without captain, Brendon Goddard this week. The Bombers are like the little kid who is all tucked up in bed on a cold winter’s morning and it’s time to get up for school…”Nooooo! I don’t want to go!” Well, that’s the collective cry of the Essendon players with three rounds left to play. They’re tired. They’re done. It’s hard for them to get up week after week. They’ve done well to at least give it a crack. It’s been a tough year. A highlight for the Bombers’ this week will be the debut of Jake Long, son of Essendon legend, Michael Long. Big shoes to fill. Good luck to him. The Gold Coast Suns have been playing well lately. They’ve been really unlucky to lose their last two matches by single-digit margins. Even with a mid-field that’s sparse on pace and talent because of an injury-riddled list, their talented forwards will have enough scoring power to get them the win here. Speaking of forwards, Tom Lynch will celebrate his 100th game for the Suns. He should kick a bag. He’ll be the third player at the club to get to the century milestone (behind Jarrod Harbrow and Michael Rischitelli). Gold Coast – over 15.5
Richmond vs. Geelong (MCG)
Richmond’s big win of the season was last week against Collingwood. They’ve saved their coach and not many expect them to win this one against Geelong. In fact, Richmond has never beaten Geelong under Damien Hardwick’s reign as coach. As expected, the Cats’ thumped Essendon by 11 goals last week, but it was a slow grind to get to that margin, and it still wasn’t enough to boost their percentage to where it needs to be. This game is crucial, because if they’re not switched on from the get-go, the Tigers could conceivably snatch it! The Cats’ have got to stop stuffing around with the footy. The fancy footwork tricks have got to stop because they just aren’t working. Kick straight, stop putting on a show, and just get the job done! They need this win and they also need a decent margin. Jack Riewoldt’s 200th game won’t coincide with a win though. Milestone games rarely do. The Dusty vs. Danger match-up will be the highlight in the mid-field. Geelong – over 15.5
Fremantle vs. Adelaide (Domain Stadium)
Fremantle stayed with the West Coast Eagles until half time last week. The Western Derby brings out the best in both teams, despite ladder positions, but the cream rose to the top and the Eagles’ got the job done. That said, the Eagles aren’t the well-oiled machine they used to be, they’re just currently in a much better place than Fremantle. In contrast, Adelaide were scarily good last week against a woeful Lions’ outfit. It was a 138-point smashing! Fremantle have their injury issues, and this match will be played on their home ground, but I highly doubt the Dockers’ will even be able to stay with the Crows for one quarter. Adelaide will be looking for another big win. They’ll get it. Adelaide – 40+
Best Bets
Western Bulldogs H2H/Hawthorn over 15.5/Sydney H2H/Gold Coast over 15.5/Geelong H2H/Adelaide over 15.5 = $6.14
Highest scoring team – Adelaide = $4.50
Most Goals – Tom Lynch (GC) = $3.75
