Hawthorn vs. Western Bulldogs (Second semi-final, Friday night, MCG)
Hawthorn find themselves under pressure this week, which is probably the reason why they’ll win. Lose this game, and the possibility of the historic four-peat feat is over. Their season is over.
The Bulldogs played their best game of the season last week, killing the Eagles’ finals dreams, and on their home deck to boot! They got the win and flew back to Melbourne without delay, but they’re still coming off a trip to Perth, and now they’re about to face the reigning premiers.
Hawthorn have been in some tight contests this year, none more so than last week’s game against Geelong. The Hawks missed the opportunity to beat Geelong with a kick after the siren and they aren’t gonna be happy campers about that lost opportunity. Beware the scorned Hawks. They know exactly what they have to do to get the job done.
The Bulldogs will have to start well to have any chance to continue their finals dream. It’ll be close. Real close! The Doggies will be competitive for most of the match, but I think Hawthorn will get over the line. We’ve had rain of Biblical proportions all week in Melbourne, so it’s going to be a wet, scrap of a game in trying conditions. Hawthorn – 1-39
Sydney vs. Adelaide (First semi-final, Saturday night, SCG)
Sydney was overrun by a faster, younger, hungrier GWS team last week. Buddy was kept goalless, and if that happens again this week, Adelaide will get the win. Rumours of Buddy and Jesinta’s split could well be playing a part in his on-field performance being below par. A niggling hip injury isn’t helping either. With Buddy out of form, together with Rising Star winner, Callum Mills ruled out with a hamstring strain, and Kurt Tippet out with a fractured jaw, the Swans are fair game.
Adelaide’s strength is their run (Sydney aren’t bad at that either) and their ability to score quickly, and often. As far as injuries go, the Crows’ list is healthy and raring to go. They’re not a one-trick-pony, in-as-much as they have multiple players who can click the scoreboard over (there were nine goal scorers last week).
However, Sydney are the No. 1 defensive team in the competition, but with Mills out, that defensive foundation has a hairline crack in it, for sure. Sydney was well and truly in last week’s game, until Mills left the ground due to injury. Adelaide are the No. 1 attacking team in the competition, but if Sydney live up to their defensive stats, Adelaide’s scoring will definitely be restricted, and it needs to be if the Swans are going to come close to getting the win. Without Buddy firing, I’m finding it hard to see where Sydney’s winning score will be coming from. They’ll need multiple goal kickers, and they’ll need a far better effort than they dished up last week against the Giants. They looked slow.
If momentum means anything, Adelaide is coming off a solid win and Sydney is coming off a disappointing loss. Last time these two met, the Crows won by 10 points. I can see history repeating itself here. Adelaide – 1-39.
Best Bet
Multi-Double #1 – Hawthorn 1-39/Adelaide 1-39 = $6.04
Multi-Double #2 – Hawthorn H2H/Sydney vs. Adelaide total score over 174.5 = $2.96
