The AFL’s most coveted individual award will be handed out tonight with Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield the white hot favourite to take home the 2016 Brownlow Medal.

Our own Brownlow Guru shares this view, installing the Cats midfielder as a very short favourite, followed by Sydney’s Luke Parker and Richmond’s Dustin Martin.

Our Guru analyses each of the 176 home and away games and determines the probability of each player receiving votes in that game.

> Enter BigFooty’s Brownlow Comp NOW

Here are the Guru’s ‘real odds’ for the 2016 Brownlow Medal for a win, plus a top three or a top five finish:

Win

Dangerfield P (Geel) 1.639
Parker L (Syd) 4.134
Martin D (Rich) 13.586
Selwood J (Geel) 62.300
Bontempelli M (WB) 72.926
Mitchell S (Haw) 105.494
Gawn M (Melb) 111.919
Pendlebury S (Coll) 130.377
Hannebery D (Syd) 142.331
Merrett Z (Ess) 192.730
Priddis M (WCE) 501.262
Shuey L (WCE) 507.504
Gray R (Pt A) 997.112
All others > 1000

Top 3 Finish

Dangerfield P (Geel) 1.095
Parker L (Syd) 1.488
Martin D (Rich) 2.270
Bontempelli M (WB) 5.593
Selwood J (Geel) 6.247
Mitchell S (Haw) 7.526
Pendlebury S (Coll) 9.410
Gawn M (Melb) 10.071
Hannebery D (Syd) 12.837
Merrett Z (Ess) 14.626
Shuey L (WCE) 22.872
Priddis M (WCE) 28.583
Gray R (Pt A) 43.283
Steven J (St K) 60.715
Coniglio S (GWS) 105.325
Neale L (Fre) 201.868
Treloar A (Coll) 220.083
Gibbs B (Carl) 430.060
All others > 500

Top 5 Finish

Dangerfield P (Geel) 1.032
Parker L (Syd) 1.246
Martin D (Rich) 1.486
Bontempelli M (WB) 2.445
Selwood J (Geel) 2.682
Mitchell S (Haw) 2.987
Pendlebury S (Coll) 3.682
Gawn M (Melb) 4.269
Hannebery D (Syd) 5.235
Merrett Z (Ess) 5.476
Shuey L (WCE) 6.886
Priddis M (WCE) 8.827
Gray R (Pt A) 12.763
Steven J (St K) 13.339
Coniglio S (GWS) 30.335
Neale L (Fre) 46.131
Treloar A (Coll) 53.893
Gibbs B (Carl) 84.255
Kennedy J (WCE) 101.776
Cripps P (Carl) 111.691
Shaw H (GWS) 134.309
Kennedy J (Syd) 140.562
Lewis J (Haw) 159.269
All others > 250

Thanks to the BrownlowGuru for the analysis. Remember to enter our Brownlow Medal Prediction Competition for the chance to win a Premium Membership.