Thanks for joining Squiggle 2017! This is the continuation of a journey that started here, with a chart of squiggly lines representing the race for the flag.

Here’s the end result from the last few years:

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Ahhh, 2016, you so crazy.

Squiggles are based on a simple model that you can read more about under INFO here. It looks only at scores and home ground advantage. Despite this, it’s a fairly solid tipper, averaging 73% over the last 5 years, which goes to show how far you can go with only a little information. And it’s a good excuse to talk about footy in an analytical way but without getting too technical.

Plus they’re super pretty.

Here’s the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don’t take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.

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And here’s the result of a run through the squiggle ladder predictor:

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This has been a tumultuous off-season, with Essendon regaining half a side, North axing one, and Ross Lyon learning to care about winning again. So there may be more teams than usual moving far up and down the ladder compared to usual. But going on 2016 form alone, this is how they line up.

I want to say up-front that I’m pretty sure I’m going to spend this year charting how awesome GWS are, especially compared to my own team. So each weekly update will be like swallowing needles. But I’m prepared to do it.

Live squiggle! Play through past years, drag teams to where you think they belong and generate new season forecasts, and play what-if with Squiggle Sliding Doors!