Nathan Buckley made a bold call at the start of 2017: If he didn’t make finals, he was gone.
Entering his sixth year at the helm, Buckley had won fewer games in every year as coach and just nine last season.
The Magpies should at least match that tally with five wins already in the bank, but a finals appearance will take an improved effort in the second half of the season.
Their average losing margin of just 13.6 points indicates that they have been extremely competitive in all their defeats. They were well on top of Melbourne last week before losing by four points and had an away win against GWS snatched away in the last minute. If they had won either of these they could have been in the eight going into the bye.
As expected, their midfield has been the Pies’ strength. Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom and Adams lead what is perhaps the best midfield group in the AFL, while Brody Grundy has become an elite ruckman.
Collingwood’s defence has, unexpectedly, been a positive as well. Despite lacking star power, they are ranked 9th for points conceded and the largest score they have given up is only 104. Jeremy Howe has become an excellent defender and can be pencilled in for an All Australian berth.
Unfortunately for Nathan Buckley, the forward line hasn’t been able to convert enough inside 50s into goals. His side ranks second in the league for inside 50s, but second-last for converting those opportunities. Darcy Moore may be a star of the future, but he desperately needs some support.
Speaking of forward line support, their off-season recruitment of Chris Mayne on a four-year deal worth around $2 million has been a disastrous decision. The former Docker has managed just three games and hasn’t impressed in the VFL since. With Daniel Wells on similar money and struggling to get on the park, that million dollars could have been much better spent in hindsight.
With six games to come against top-eight sides, Collingwood will struggle to make finals from here. But with the improvement the Pies have shown in the middle and in defence, Nathan Buckley deserves another year or two to see if he can get his side back into September. If he can just squeeze another two or three goals out of his forward line, he may yet prove to be a successful AFL coach.
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