Updated Insights:

Since the original article, it’s been confirmed that Port Adelaide remains the underdog, particularly after their devastating loss to Geelong in the qualifying final. This game saw Zak Butters suffer a rib injury, and while his status for the semi-final remains uncertain, this could significantly weaken the Power. Meanwhile, Hawthorn, despite losing key defender Sam Frost, has maintained its strong form, with young stars like Calsher Dear and Nick Watson performing well.

Hawthorn is currently favored by most predictions, with betting odds giving them a slight edge. Port Adelaide’s defense will need to step up against Hawthorn’s powerful forwards, but with injuries mounting, they may struggle. The predicted final score is leaning towards Hawthorn, with models estimating a narrow win for the Hawks (around 84-79)

The GWS Giants face off against the Brisbane Lions in a highly anticipated semi-final clash on Saturday, September 14, 2024. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance, but their recent form and past encounters set the stage for an intense battle. With a spot in the preliminary final on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Team Form Over the Last Three Weeks

GWS Giants:
The Giants have been in excellent form, winning their last two games. A standout victory came in Round 22, when they upset the Brisbane Lions by 18 points, ending the Lions’ nine-game winning streak. The Giants displayed resilience, with strong performances from their midfield, led by Tom Green and Finn Callaghan. Their forward line, particularly Aaron Cadman and Jesse Hogan, has been clinical, making the most of opportunities​.

Despite a narrow loss in Week 1 of the Finals against the Sydney Swans, GWS pushed their rivals all the way, proving they are up to the finals challenge.

Brisbane Lions:
Brisbane have had a mixed bag of results over the last few weeks. After being on a nine-game winning streak, they were derailed by the Giants in Round 22, where they struggled with inaccuracy, kicking 16 behinds. Key players like Will Ashcroft and Dayne Zorko were prolific, but the team’s inability to convert opportunities cost them dearly. However, the Lions bounced back with a solid 28-point win over Carlton in Finals Week 1, showcasing their offensive strength, led by Joe Daniher and Cameron Rayner​.

Head-to-Head
The two teams have met twice this season, with GWS winning both matches. GWS’s victory in Round 22 saw them restrict the Lions to just three goals after quarter time, while GWS also dominated their previous encounter in round 7. This head-to-head sets up an intriguing contest, with GWS showing they can match Brisbane’s intensity and dominate​.

Key Players to Watch

  • GWS Giants: Tom Green’s dominance in the midfield and Aaron Cadman’s sharp forward play will be crucial. Green’s ability to win contested possessions and move the ball forward has been central to the Giants’ recent success.
  • Brisbane Lions: Joe Daniher is the key for the Lions. When he’s on, Brisbane’s offense thrives, but inconsistency has plagued him at times. Will Ashcroft continues to be a young star, with his disposal efficiency making him a danger in the midfield.

Tactical Battle
GWS will look to slow down Brisbane’s fast starts. The Lions have been dominant in first quarters all season, winning 22 out of 24. The Giants, however, will aim to capitalize on Brisbane’s vulnerability to pressure later in games, as seen in their previous clash. GWS coach Adam Kingsley has emphasized a hard-nosed, defensive approach that could limit the Lions’ efficiency inside 50.

Prediction
This game is likely to be a close affair, but Brisbane’s ability to finish games stronger gives them a slight edge. Their recent victory over Carlton, combined with home-ground advantage at the Gabba, should see them through. However, if GWS can apply pressure and exploit Brisbane’s occasional inefficiency in front of goal, they could spring an upset.

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 10 points.