Updated Tips and Predictions:

In the days since the original article, it has been confirmed that Port Adelaide enters this match as clear underdogs, partly due to their crushing defeat against Geelong in the qualifying finals. The Power’s talisman, Zak Butters, suffered a rib injury during that game, and his availability remains uncertain, which could be a significant blow to their chances. Additionally, Hawthorn will be missing key defender Sam Frost, which might give Port Adelaide’s forwards an opportunity to exploit Hawthorn’s defense.

Despite these setbacks for both teams, Hawthorn remains the favored side, with betting odds placing them ahead of Port Adelaide. Hawthorn has won four consecutive matches, showcasing strong form, while Port Adelaide’s last game was a heavy loss. Predictive models give the Hawks a 57% chance of winning, with an estimated final score of 84-79 in favor of Hawthorn.

The injury concerns and updated odds suggest that the game will be closer than originally anticipated, but Hawthorn still holds a slight edge. If Zak Butters is ruled out, this could further strengthen Hawthorn’s position as favorites​

The semi-final clash between Port Adelaide Power and Hawthorn Hawks at Adelaide Oval promises to be a thrilling battle. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes in the past few weeks, with Hawthorn showing resilience and form, while Port Adelaide has faced some significant setbacks.

Now, onto the original article…

Team Form Over the Last Three Weeks

Hawthorn Hawks:

The Hawks have been impressive, securing victories in two of their last three games. They have shown determination, particularly in their wins over the Western Bulldogs and St. Kilda. Hawthorn’s forward line, led by Blake Hardwick, has been in good form, while their midfield, driven by Will Day, has been efficient in controlling play. Despite a loss to Port Adelaide earlier in the season, where they were narrowly defeated by a last-second goal, the Hawks have been improving​.

Port Adelaide Power:

Port Adelaide, on the other hand, has struggled recently. Their 84-point thrashing at the hands of Geelong exposed some weaknesses, especially in their defense. They are also dealing with key injuries, including concerns around Ollie Wines. Although they managed to scrape a last-gasp victory over Hawthorn earlier in the season, their current form suggests they might not be at their best​.

Head-to-Head

In their last encounter, Port Adelaide pulled off a miraculous comeback, snatching a one-point victory after trailing by 41 points late in the third quarter. This shows the resilience of the Power, but it also highlighted some of the tactical decisions Hawthorn might want to adjust​.

Key Players to Watch

  • Hawthorn: Blake Hardwick is one to watch, particularly after his five-goal performance in their last meeting. Will Day has also been a pivotal player, particularly in contested possessions.
  • Port Adelaide: Zak Butters, who played a key role in their comeback, will need to be at his best. Dan Houston’s long-range goal-kicking could also be decisive, especially under finals pressure.

Tactical Battle

Hawthorn is likely to focus on maintaining possession and exploiting Port Adelaide’s defensive vulnerabilities, which were evident in their recent matches. Meanwhile, Port Adelaide will rely on their midfield dominance and counter-attacks, looking to make quick transitions through the wings. The Power will need to tighten up their defense to prevent Hawthorn from building an early lead, as they have been slow starters in recent games.

Prediction

Considering current form, Hawthorn appears to be the more in-form side, with a well-balanced lineup and fewer injury concerns. However, Port Adelaide’s ability to rally late in games cannot be overlooked. With home-ground advantage and a history of strong finishes, Port Adelaide is expected to edge out Hawthorn, but it will be a close game. Port Adelaide by 6 points.