It’s hard to find value in these bye rounds, but we did well last week. Two of our three bets got up, including a multi-bet worth over $5 for one unit.
Another bye round this week, so only six games for Round 15, all spread out over four nights/days. We’ve done some hard core studying and we’ve picked out a few nifty bets for you, all of which are listed at the end of our preview. Get on early, before those odds tumble in!
Byes: Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Hawthorn and North Melbourne
Here we go…
West Coast vs. Essendon
Thursday night lights at Domain Stadium. Going west, well, it’s the hardest road trip in the competition. No doubt, Essendon were gallant against GWS, but this is a lopsided contest if ever there was one. In the head-to-head betting markets, the Eagles are $1.01. The Bombers are $21! The line is -72.5. Hmmm, nothing more to say, really. Tip: West Coast – 60+
Port Adelaide vs. Richmond
Port Adelaide and Richmond both still have a sniff of making the finals, so this game is going to be a real cracker. The loser will kiss their 2016 season goodbye. Two clubs, both with an entire season of footy on the line, it’ll be a tough, fierce contest. The Power are two wins outside the top eight and they’re still steaming from a pre-bye loss to Fremantle, a very winnable game that was thrown away. Richmond will feel the full brunt of that loss this week. Bye, bye, Tigers. Tip: Port Adelaide – 1-39.
Gold Coast vs. St. Kilda
The Gold Coast Suns are slowly getting their injured players back, and each week improvements are seen because of it. St. Kilda are coming off their shock 3-point win over Geelong. A let down this week is entirely possible. The Saints played a hard, fast, contested possession game, but I don’t think they can win two in a row, especially with this one being played at Metricon Stadium. The Saints just aren’t the same team interstate. Form-wise, St. Kilda are the hardest team in the competition to catch. They’re a tipsters nightmare! One week they play like finals contenders, the next they play like a bottom four side and get mauled by 10+ goals. It won’t be a mauling, but the Suns should get back on the winners list this week. Tip – Gold Coast 1-39.
Sydney vs. Western Bulldogs
At the SCG, the Doggies travel to meet the Swans at home. Both teams are fresh off the bye, but I can’t see Sydney dropping this one. If the Swans win, they go straight to the top of the ladder. There’s no better incentive. Tip – Sydney 15+
Carlton vs. Collingwood
The ol’ rivals are back at it. No matter where these two sit on the ladder, they both play to a higher level when they meet each other. Carlton won the last clash earlier this year, so Collingwood owe them one. The Pies should come out pumped and ready to make it 1-1 for the 2016 season. Tip – Collingwood -2.5
Melbourne vs. Adelaide
The last and only game for Sunday and Adelaide travel to the MCG to meet Melbourne. The Demons are much improved this year, but Adelaide are flying, and even away from their Adelaide Oval fortress, they’ll account for the Demons. The Crows have won five in a row and they just have too much to play for to drop this one. Firstly, Sunday is the one-year anniversary of their former coach, Phil Walsh’s untimely death. Secondly, this venue is the litmus test for finals footy. The Crows need a solid win at the MCG. It will give them a much-needed mental edge going into the second half of the season. If they’re true finals contenders, they have to bring the same scoreboard pressure and intensity to their away games as they do at home. They got the upset win against the Eagles at Domain two weeks ago. Melbourne at the MCG is their next scalp. Tip – Adelaide -15+
Best Bets
West Coast – Handicap markets: (Line – 2nd Quarter Only) -17.5 – $1.90
West Coast vs. Essendon – Goal Markets – Josh Kennedy (WC) for 5 goals ($2.75) and 6 goals ($4.90). He’s much better value to kick 5 and/or 6 for the game, rather than the lowly $1.95 on offer for him to be the highest goal scorer of the entire round.
Multi #1 – Port/Sydney/Collingwood/Adelaide – all H2H = $4.65
Multi #2 – Port 1-39/Sydney -17.5/Adelaide -17.5 – $7.51
High/Low Double – West Coast/Essendon – $4
Rising Star Prediction – Callum Mills (Sydney). Currently showing $10 on most betting markets. He’s long overdue for a nomination.
Good Luck!
