Sydney vs. Hawthorn (SCG):
Match of the round on “Pie Night.” First vs. second on the ladder! We’ve been gifted some thrilling Thursday night games this season and this one should be no different. Sydney’s recent brain fade at home against the Bulldogs will be firmly planted in the back of their minds. It was a loss that could come back to haunt them come finals time. They won’t let it happen again. The Hawks are a pre-meditated puzzle of precision. Say that three times fast! They’re still losing the much-talked-about contested ball stat, but somehow, it’s not stopping them from getting the wins on the board. Look, I really can’t split these two. If Hawthorn win, they’ll go two games clear of the Swans. With Richmond, Carlton, and Melbourne to come, Hawthorn would be in the prime position for a definite top-two finish. It’s a home ground advantage to the Swans here, but they’re also coming off back-to-back six-day breaks, and that could go against them too. I’m leaning toward Hawthorn, but I’m still hesitant to tip against the home team. In betting terms, I’m going with the cowardly safe bet – “either team under 39.5.”
Fremantle vs. Geelong (Domain Stadium):
The way Geelong has been playing of late, I would not be at all surprised if Fremantle win this one. The Cats look wobbly, but they have to win this game to remain a top four hope. With pre and post bye losses, Geelong getting a win here is crucial. Fremantle are now in the position of being able to throw a spanner into the works of potential finals contenders. With the mindset of, “if we can’t play finals, neither will you,” the Dockers main, albeit spiteful objective in playing out the season, is to spoil Geelong’s party. At home, they very well could. Geelong – 1-39.
Richmond vs. Essendon (MCG):
Despite losing a close one against the Bulldogs last week, Richmond played a much better style of footy. The young kids stood up and they showed supporters that there’s a bit of depth in the Tigers list yet. Likewise, Essendon took it right up to the Saints and almost snatched the win. The Bombers want to win and you can see them gaining momentum each week. They’re playing like they’re not far off singing the song again, but I think they’ll have to wait for the Brisbane game to sing it. This is a definite danger game for Richmond. Make no mistake, if the Tigers don’t come out to play, the Bombers could very easily swoop and snag the upset win, but I get the feeling the Bombers threw everything they had at St. Kilda last week, and to do it two weeks in a row will be awfully tough. No doubt, Essendon are on the up, but I’ll still stick with the Tigers to get the four points. Richmond – 1-39.
North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium):
North Melbourne have got to start winning. It’s crunch time! This game is very, very winnable. But, North Melbourne has a way of losing at the moment (they’ve lost five of their last six games) and when teams start losing, it gets inside their heads and it becomes a nasty habit. The Kangaroos have tumbled from 1st place to 8th place in five weeks! There’s been plenty of recent injury concerns, which have played a part in their tumble down the ladder, but every club has injury concerns. Luck is a big part of this game and you just have to work with what you’ve got. It’s a Kangaroos home game, which will surely help their chances, but they’re also playing a much-improved Port Adelaide side, so it’s not going to be a walk in the park to get the four points. If the Kangaroos want to play finals, they have to win. They also have to unclog a forward line that’s just not working. Dropping Drew Petrie is a start. I doubt they will, but Petrie’s underperforming and he has been for months. Collingwood booted Travis Cloke to the VFL and it’s now Petrie’s turn to get a reality check. Waite being out due to a nagging hip injury has left a massive hole up forward. Hopefully, he’ll be back this week. As for Port, mathematically (and it’s a long, long, long shot), they could still slip into the top eight, but they’d need a lot to go right, including this win. Tough game. Both teams need the win and the consequences of the win or the loss for each of these teams is huge! The Kangaroos will just about shut the door and seal the eight by getting over the line here. A loss for Port would see them concede that finals footy isn’t going to happen this year. A loss for North means they could miss the finals. They have a hard run home and it’s hard to see where the wins would come from to keep them in contention. If Port win, their finals hopes are still alive, as are a few other teams on the cusp. The incentive for North to win this game and seal the eight will mean they’ll come out with fire in their eyes. North Melbourne – 1-39.
Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast (Cazaly’s Stadium – night):
Both teams are more than capable of winning this one. At Cazaly Stadium in Cairns, this game is the furthest the Bulldogs have played away from home. Their last three wins have been close battles, all under two goals. They’ve showed real grit and grunt when games get tight, and they’ve managed to pull off those wins. The Suns aren’t playing at home, but at least they’re playing in their home state, and they’re coming off a solid Q-Clash win over Brisbane. That said, with confirmed reports of Michael Rischitelli’s ACL rupture and Gary Ablett’s troublesome shoulder needing more surgery, the Suns, and coach, Rodney Eade, well may well have taken their last whack in the guts for the year. Ablett’s run and positive on-field presence cannot be underestimated. One man does not maketh a team (are you listening, Geelong?), but without Ablett, the Suns are an alternate version of their best outfit. With Ablett and Rischitelli now ruled out for the year, I’ll stick with the trusty Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs 1-39.
Adelaide vs. Collingwood (Adelaide Oval – night):
Collingwood pulled off the upset of the round last week, beating the thought-to-be-unbeatable Giants on their home turf. Maybe it was Travis Cloke’s non-AFL-approved sticky glove that did it? I knew there had to be a magic trick to his form turnaround. He used Spidey-sense to get the ball! Glove or no glove, this week, the Pies travel to Adelaide Oval. It’ll be interesting to see if Paul Seedsman returns to face his old club, Collingwood. Even if the Pies play the way they did last week, equal to their strong NAB Challenge form, they won’t beat the Crows at home. The Crows are in the top four for the first time this season. If they beat the Pies this week, they could jump two more spots. This game is massive! I’m confident that Scott Thompson will celebrate his 300th game with a memorable win. Adelaide 1-39.
Carlton vs. West Coast (MCG):
If ever the Eagles had another chance to prove they can win in Melbourne, this is it. A top four spot awaits, but only if they can win away from home. The competition this week, and in coming weeks, is far from strong, so they have a real chance of securing a top four ladder position by putting successive wins on the board. The sure thing is that the Eagles will start their run home by comfortably downing the Blues on Sunday afternoon. West Coast 40+
St. Kilda vs. Melbourne (Etihad Stadium):
Melbourne have a slim chance to poke into the top eight, especially if they win this one. It’s a hard slog when your finals hopes are pinned on getting the wins ticking over each and every week, whilst also relying on your opposition to lose games they should easily win to make the path clear. It’s hardly a grand plan, but that’s all they have to cling to right now. St. Kilda are just too inconsistent to tip with confidence. They just hung on against Essendon last week and Melbourne had a solid win over Fremantle in Darwin. However, the Demons have only won one game from their last 24 matches at Etihad, so there’s a for-and-against argument for both sides. Toss of the coin game. Melbourne – 1-39.
Brisbane vs. GWS (Gabba):
If ever a team needs a confidence boost, they just have to play the Lions and they’ll be back on track in no time. After a shock home loss to the Pies, GWS get their chance to make a massive statement this week. The loss to Collingwood was the reality check they needed. This is the last game (aka “the graveyard shift match”) of the round at the Gabba on Sunday afternoon. This means that Lions supporters who are still going to games don’t have to travel far to watch their team get slaughtered. It makes the ride home easier. Is that even a positive? It’ll be twelve straight losses for Brisbane. GWS 40+
Best Multi-Bet:
Sydney vs. Hawthorn, either team under 39.5/Richmond H2H/Western Bulldogs H2H/ Geelong H2H/ West Coast 40+/GWS 40+/ = $5.44
Best Multi Line Bet (Last Quarter Only):
Geelong -8.5/Richmond -9.5/North Melbourne -5.5/West Coast -8.5 (Last Quarter Lines Only) = $12.48
*Odds quoted are with Sportsbet on July 13 @ 7PM EST
