After AFL Round 5, here’s how the model sees the competition.
📊 Current Rankings
| Rank | Team | Rating | Prev | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | → Brisbane Lions | 1700 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | ↑ Hawthorn | 1692 | 3 | +1 |
| 3 | ↓ Western Bulldogs | 1648 | 2 | -1 |
| 4 | → Geelong | 1646 | 4 | 0 |
| 5 | → Fremantle | 1634 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | → Sydney | 1622 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | → Adelaide | 1603 | 7 | 0 |
| 8 | → Collingwood | 1566 | 8 | 0 |
| 9 | → Gold Coast | 1550 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 | → Greater Western Sydney | 1540 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 | ↑ St Kilda | 1431 | 13 | +2 |
| 12 | ↓ Melbourne | 1430 | 11 | -1 |
| 13 | ↓ Port Adelaide | 1399 | 12 | -1 |
| 14 | → North Melbourne | 1381 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 | → Carlton | 1363 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 | ↑ Essendon | 1314 | 17 | +1 |
| 17 | ↓ West Coast | 1257 | 16 | -1 |
| 18 | → Richmond | 1227 | 18 | 0 |
📈 Biggest Movers
- 🔼 St Kilda (+2)
- 🔼 Hawthorn (+1)
- 🔼 Essendon (+1)
- 🔽 Western Bulldogs (-1)
- 🔽 Melbourne (-1)
- 🔽 Port Adelaide (-1)
St Kilda is the biggest riser this week, climbing 2 places. Western Bulldogs slides the most, dropping 1 place from last week.
Melbourne and Port Adelaide slip as well after unexpected losses.
🎯 Predicted Top 4
- Brisbane Lions
- Hawthorn
- Western Bulldogs
- Geelong
The model’s current projected top four is Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Geelong.
Brisbane Lions hold top spot with a rating edge of 8.3 points over Hawthorn – not much in that at all.
⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings
- Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 6, power 1), Collingwood (ladder 13, power 8), Geelong (ladder 8, power 4).
- Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: North Melbourne (ladder 7, power 14), Sydney (ladder 1, power 6), Gold Coast (ladder 5, power 9).
👀 State of Play
- Brisbane Lions remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
- Fremantle round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
- The strongest upward move belongs to St Kilda, who rise 2 places on the back of this week’s away win over Port Adelaide.
- The biggest falls belong to Western Bulldogs (bumped out by the Hawks rise), Demons and Port Adelaide – all down 1 place compared to the previous round.
🔢 How it works
- Elo-style rating system
- Every team starts from a base rating
- Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
- Home ground advantage is included
- Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average
📅 Notes
- Opening Round is treated as Round 0
- Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round
