After Rd 13, here’s how the model sees the competition.

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 → Fremantle 1758 1 0 1 0
2 → Geelong 1709 2 0 4 +2
3 → Sydney 1695 3 0 2 -1
4 → Hawthorn 1644 4 0 3 -1
5 ↑ Brisbane Lions 1623 6 +1 9 +4
6 ↓ Adelaide 1603 5 -1 8 +2
7 ↑ Western Bulldogs 1572 9 +2 6 -1
8 → Greater Western Sydney 1567 8 0 10 +2
9 ↓ Gold Coast 1537 7 -2 7 -2
10 → Collingwood 1515 10 0 11 +1
11 → Melbourne 1496 11 0 5 -6
12 ↑ Carlton 1434 13 +1 13 +1
13 ↓ St Kilda 1429 12 -1 12 -1
14 ↑ Port Adelaide 1389 15 +1 15 +1
15 ↓ North Melbourne 1372 14 -1 14 -1
16 → West Coast 1245 16 0 16 0
17 → Richmond 1222 17 0 17 0
18 → Essendon 1190 18 0 18 0

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Western Bulldogs (+2)
  • 🔼 Brisbane Lions (+1)
  • 🔼 Carlton (+1)
  • 🔽 Gold Coast (-2)
  • 🔽 Adelaide (-1)
  • 🔽 St Kilda (-1)

Western Bulldogs is the biggest riser this week, climbing 2 places. Gold Coast slides the most, dropping 2 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Fremantle
  • 2. Geelong
  • 3. Sydney
  • 4. Hawthorn

The model’s current projected top four is Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn. Fremantle hold top spot with a rating edge of 48.3 points over Geelong.

👀 State of Play

  • Fremantle remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Brisbane Lions round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Western Bulldogs, who rise 2 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Gold Coast, down 2 places compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 9, power 5), Geelong (ladder 4, power 2), Adelaide (ladder 8, power 6).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 5, power 11), Gold Coast (ladder 7, power 9), Sydney (ladder 2, power 3).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round