There appears to be some confused punters out there with every game looking interesting for all sorts of reasons.
Many are overrating North again, GWS still considered that it might not get a record defeat again and everybody believes that the Dogs form is no good but for some reason Port’s form is despite both teams losing seven of their last ten games. It will interesting for punters to see what kind of results will get at the end of this round but in any case the one betting article which still shows profit will steer you in the right direction with each game. (Then again when I say the one betting article I do not know of any others so leave a message if you do know of any).
The Bulldogs in their last eight games have only lost one game by more than 38 points. The Hawks may be everyone’s favourite to win the flag but the Bulldogs have some dogged determination right now. The line is too large given the Hawthorn’s considerable injury list. Take the Bulldogs on the -66.5 line with Centrebet this week.
Would you believe it if I told you Geelong is underrated by punters on a weekly basis? Geelong has beaten the betting lines on nine occasions this year, the second best in the AFL. Maybe it is due to their long injury list this season and punters thinking they are not at full strength but Geelong probably boast the best depth in the league and their opponents this week Adelaide have struggled since they lost just one player, Taylor Walker. Betstar will give you the best line at -26.5 for Geelong and they should beat the line for the fourth week in a row.
The weekly punt believes Port Adelaide is fool’s gold right now. They have only beaten the betting lines on three occasions in their last nine matches and the wins over injured Swans and Collingwood have distorted their true market value. So really it is quite simple, St Kilda on the +5.5 line this week is looking like a sure thing at Etihad.
GWS have beaten the betting lines only five times this year, the equal least in the AFL. More importantly they have lost every game this year and by an average margin of more than 11 goals per game. Essendon may not be considered as good as as some premiership favourites but their form this year is not far off. They have also beaten the betting lines ten times this year, the most in the AFL. Expect Essendon to do what many have already done to GWS this year and win by more than the -70.5 offered by Luxbet.
There is no doubt that the Richmond v Fremantle match up is a hard game to tip but the weekly punt is under no illusion on who has the edge. Last time Richmond played Fremantle at Paterson they were unlucky not to take the four points, this time they face the Dockers minus Pavlich at the MCG. It still will not be a cakewalk but Richmond should start favourites. The Richmond line will provide that extra insurance if it is a close game and Sportbet will give you the best handicap at +2.5.
It is surprising that North Melbourne start favourites against Carlton despite losing most of their games this season. Carlton has not been lighting the world on fire but they have been a little more consistent than the Kangaroos this year. Carlton also had an extra day rest while North had to travel back from the Gabba. Take the Carlton line at +4.5 with Pinnacle as it very likely to come up.
The Eagles and Sydney used to have very close encounters during their premiership years. Now Sydney win them all and in their last six encounters, the Swans have won by an average margin of 31 points. The Swans are on the up and the Eagles are on the down and the Sydney line of –11.5 this week is looking very attractive, especially given the Eagles have only beaten it five times this year.
The Suns last big loss at Metricon was against Fremantle in round six, in a game they had a lot of injuries. In fact this year they have won half their games at home so they will be no pushover even if they are playing Collingwood this week. Collingwood has only beaten the lines on five occasions this year while the Suns have done so eight times. The Suns line should be good again this week.
Current Betting Fund: $1,911.00
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs – Handicap (+66.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Centrebet
Adelaide v Geelong – Handicap (-26.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar
St Kilda v Port Adelaide – Handicap (+5.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
GWS v Essendon – Handicap (-70.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Richmond v Fremantle – Handicap (+2.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
North Melbourne v Carlton – Handicap (+4.5) – $150 @ $1.909 Pinnacle
West Coast v Sydney – Handicap (-11.5) – $150 @ $1.90 TAB
Gold Coast v Collingwood – Handicap (+29.5) – $100 @ $1.90 Luxbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting.
