In the last fortnight the weekly punt has gone from been up 20% profit for the year to almost doubling its 2013 stake due to betting on weakened teams due to injuries and suspensions. As stated before part of the formula is to pay close attention to who is lining up each week and it is wise to make sure that you weight key omissions from a team. Of course this is more simply said than done but if you do not have the time to do so then just follow the article each week which does it for you.
The weekly punt has been betting against Hawthorn for a few weeks now but not with much success. But there is no doubt we are putting money on them this week after their thrashing of Essendon. Their opponents the Tigers were poor last week against the Swans and to make matters worse they lost a couple of players through injury. Then to add insult to this wound, they have had to travel back from Sydney with two days less recovery than the Hawks. Did we also mention that Hawks are much better side? Hawthorn on the -27.5 line with Pinnacle is as certain a bet as you will get this week.
Exception to the injury rule: this week Adelaide despite all their injuries will beat Port or at least beat the betting line. Adelaide this year has beaten the lines on ten occasions, the equal best in the AFL. Port on the other hand has not done so for the last four weeks. The Crows have been a little unlucky in some of their games but when things go their way they have shown they can beat teams like Geelong. Adelaide are definitely better so put that hard earned on the +6.5 line with Sportsbet for “showdown 35”.
How does a team that just lost by more than a 100 points last week go into a game with the better form? Well when you play a team which has not won a game in 21 matches (almost a whole season) than you do go in better form against GWS. Is there any reason GWS may improve their performance this week? Probably, as they are playing Melbourne, but Melbourne should have the edge and GWS has yet to beat the Dees. Take Melbourne line of +3.5 with Bookmaker just for a little bit of extra insurance.
Fremantle has not beaten a betting line in three weeks, while the Blues in that same time have done so every week. There must be still some residual underrating by punters from the Blues early season form but this game is at Etihad and Carlton starts rightly so as the favourite. Betfair will give you the best odds for Carlton to win at a juicy $1.86.
Essendon this year has beaten the betting lines twice as many times as their perennially overrated nemesis Collingwood. Collingwood rank last in the AFL each year in beating betting lines and you could just make money just betting against them. What is important to note is that Collingwood is considered favourites despite having plenty of key players out while Essendon look to get a full team back again. The last encounter saw Essendon thrash the Pies, why should this week be any different. The line of +4.5 for the Bombers with Sportsbet should be easy money this week.
When it comes to injuries no team is more injured than West Coast. That is not to say their opponents the Suns do not have injury concerns of their own but they are far healthier right now. Given the Eagles have only beaten the betting lines five times compared to the Suns ten, we putting money on Gold Coast especially with potentially Bock back this week. The +16.5 with Luxbet for Gold Coast looks pretty good.
Current Betting Fund: $2,696.35
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Hawthorn v Richmond– Handicap (-27.5) – $200 @ $1.926 Pinnacle
Adelaide v Port Adelaide– Handicap (+6.5) – $200@ $1.92 Sportsbet
GWS v Melbourne–Handicap– $200 (+3.5) @ $1.92 Bookmaker
Carlton v Fremantle– H2H– $200 @ $1.86 Betfair
Collingwood v Essendon–Handicap (+4.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
West Coast v Gold Coast–Handicap (+16.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Luxbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
