A very likely scenario and certainly would not be a surprise considering since 2007 the teams that have had the bye coming into the preliminary have all played in the grand final. And the weekly punt is not necessarily advising you right now to bet on this scenario as you will not get anything over $2 for the Hawthorn/Fremantle grand final quinella. That said anything just under $2 still presents pretty good value considering that statistic since 2007, and most pundits would agree that Hawks and the Dockers are in the box seat right now.
But if you had followed the weekly punt back in June you will know that it advised to bet on the Hawks v Dockers grand final, and back then it was paying $9; a $50 bet was placed. Also Fremantle as a premiership favourite was seen as good value and the weekly punt also put $50 with odds of $9 also. The logic was that Fremantle had a pretty easy draw, so they were always going to finish top four and get the double chance. They also had the best defence in the competition and that was a good sign given that over a third of teams ranked first in defence reach the grand final. Take those two things in account on their own and you can see why the odds were too long.
This week Fremantle play a wounded Swans. While Fremantle have most of their best players back, the Swans key players are dropping like flies. Swans supporters must be thankful that Richards only received a reprimand from the MRP, but there are still huge holes from the missing personell in their team in which the Dockers will exploit. Sydney will not dominate the stoppages like they do against other teams and Sandilands is finally going to step up to what all Dockers fans have always hoped for. The Dockers have been the best in the AFL this season at beating the betting lines while the Swans have only beaten one line in their last seven matches. Fremantle on the -20.5 line offered by Sportsbet is the most attractive bet this week and take it before it ballons out even more.
No team has lost after having the week off since 2007 which extends even longer than the Kennett curse. Yes Geelong has the wood over Hawthorn but nearly all of these games since the 2008 grand final have been close and could have gone either way. Hawthorn finished on top of the ladder and with the best percentage for a reason, they have been the best team in 2013 thus far and that is enough reason to expect another good performance this week. Geelong has not beaten a line in their last three matches so expect Hawthorn will finally end the streak in emphatic fashion beating the -11.5 line offered by Betstar.
Betting Fund 2013: $904.85
Total staked for 2013: $1,593.50
Fremantle v Sydney – Handicap– (-20.5) $300 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Hawthorn v Geelong – Handicap – (-11.5) $100 @ $1.85 Betstar
Hawthorn v Geelong – H2H – $100 @ $1.45 Sportsbet*
Fremantle v Geelong – H2H – $100 @ $1.31 Sportsbet*
*Sportbet this week are offering money back if team loses by 18 points or less
