Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dergert]

Darcy Gardiner is a free agent this year. Immediate upgrade on Cordy right there. Alex Pearce is another free agent who would be an upgrade on Gardner. Both play for clubs with a good amount of KPD depth, and have no trade cost (assuming no matching)

Our backline would be set for the next 5 years with them.

St. Kilda would've made it happen

 

[Mofra]

St. Kilda would've made it happen

The day we start taking list management queues from St Kilda is the day we may as well relocate to Burnie

 

[Dale4captain]

English is absolutely worth a top three pick. He's close to being one of the best rucks in the comp. What most of you nuffs don't understand is that there's a very weak correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances. What makes a ruckman good is how much they can impact the play outside of the hitout. English is starting to become as much of a marking presence as the top rucks with the bonus of having excellent footskills and being able to be involved in chains like a midfielder.

I agree Tim is turning into a great ruck but the next step he has to take is halving that hitout contest If he can at least come up as 50/50, he's a gun. At the moment, he's probably only 30/70 and it hurts us if they're a competent tap ruck that can feed a guy like Crippa or Petracca.

 

[Golden_6]

Darcy Gardiner is a free agent this year. Immediate upgrade on Cordy right there. Alex Pearce is another free agent who would be an upgrade on Gardner. Both play for clubs with a good amount of KPD depth, and have no trade cost (assuming no matching)

Daniel McStay is out of contract too. I know he’s a forward but I think he would make a great key defensive post. From all reports he’s pretty settled in Brisbane though.

 

[Virgin Dog]

English is absolutely worth a top three pick. He's close to being one of the best rucks in the comp. What most of you nuffs don't understand is that there's a very weak correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances. What makes a ruckman good is how much they can impact the play outside of the hitout. English is starting to become as much of a marking presence as the top rucks with the bonus of having excellent footskills and being able to be involved in chains like a midfielder.

It's obviously not fair to pile all the criticism onto English, he's been one of our better performers in the middle this year. The issue is what happens when he gets tired/needs a rest. We can't keep having Cordy and Hannan take ruck contests. I would rather keep English and recruit a ruck (or at least play Sweet)

 

[Al dente]

View attachment 1353946

It's obviously not fair to pile all the criticism onto English, he's been one of our better performers in the middle this year. The issue is what happens when he gets tired/needs a rest. We can't keep having Cordy and Hannan take ruck contests. I would rather keep English and recruit a ruck (or at least play Sweet)

his bad period last night was first half so no fatigue there. he's issue has always been a drop in aggression and willingness to commit his body, psychological more than physical

 

[ossie_21]

Don’t rule out Crozier going onto LTI depending on outcome of last night, although I’d much prefer he’s healthy and it was a freak occurrence that led to him fainting.

 

[Testekill]

Don’t rule out Crozier going onto LTI depending on outcome of last night, although I’d much prefer he’s healthy and it was a freak occurrence that led to him fainting.

Yeah my older sister starting having dizzy spells and fainted and they found out that she had developed epilepsy.

 

[ScragCity]

View attachment 1353946

It's obviously not fair to pile all the criticism onto English, he's been one of our better performers in the middle this year. The issue is what happens when he gets tired/needs a rest. We can't keep having Cordy and Hannan take ruck contests. I would rather keep English and recruit a ruck (or at least play Sweet)

Well I suppose the data from a single match is conclusive! Hitout wins do have a strong correlation with clearances! I'll let the data analysts in the industry know that they missed this one!

If we want to draw conclusions from a single match then we could also say that having more scoring shots has a negative correlation with winning.

 

[doggie dog]

In the past two drafts our options to recruit and trade for KPDs and rucks have been limited due to needing all our resources to secure JUH and Darcy. I'm sure none of us would question this.
In the 2020 National Draft our 2nd and only other pick was 55 - Bedendo. In the Rookie draft we got McNeill at pick 11 and R Smith at pick 26. There were no KPDs or rucks drafted at or below our picks.
In the 2021 National Draft our 2nd pick was 43 - Jones and our 3rd 61 - Cleary.
We could have drafted Visintini (56) instead of Jones but I guess we had that position covered with Darcy. In the Rookie Draft we could have got Charlie Dean or Levi Casboult, the latter I'm sure we wouldn't go near.
Instead of Dean we opted for Parker which may have been the wrong call particularly when Dean had huge upside following his best Under 23 state player award.
I haven't mentioned the pre-season trade periods e.g to recruit a ruckman, where indeed, a few ruckmen moved clubs, but again we were hampered by the need to retain points for Darcy.
We did trade in O'Brien which was a step in the right direction but to fill the outstanding gaps on our list from here we are going to have give up quality to get quality.

I really wanted Visentini, some real height a proper mongrel about him plus he could give 2 positions of need, KPD and back up ruck. He has a degree of agression that you can't teach Timmy.
We could of also had Deano with a free hit in the 5th round.
A failing on Sammy already showing itself in the 2nd round.

 

[doggies ftw]

Well I suppose the data from a single match is conclusive! Hitout wins do have a strong correlation with clearances! I'll let the data analysts in the industry know that they missed this one!

If we want to draw conclusions from a single match then we could also say that having more scoring shots has a negative correlation with winning.

When you’ve got one team 12 hitouts to advantage to 0 in the first half, the opposition walking the ball out of the stoppage time and time again, yeah it’s a problem. Couldn’t give a **** about hit out stats in general but watch the game and tell me we’re not absolutely demolished in the ruck with a straight face

 

[adogsfan5]

We still wanna partly blame Bruce’s injury for our structure / selection issues? It obviously hasn’t helped, but even when Bruce was playing, Tim was still starting forward with either Martin or Sweet rucking. With Bruce out, we still made a grand final. Love to have him, but we can’t solely put all faith in Bruce. We’ve gone the poor route with structure and it’s the same one that killed us in patches last year.

I get it, we needed to use picks for Jamarra and Darcy and couldn’t really get another senior body in. Sorry, but reap what you sow in terms of selection.

On top of that we also drafted McComb (another mature age midfielder.. like why?)

 

[doggie dog]

We should absolutely not trade English. Unless he requests it. We have put so much time into him and he’s starting to now repay us. He has the ability to be a force as a ruck / forward. And is only 24.

He was one of our best last night, despite some questionable ruck work. He’ll be worth the wait and has improved this season massively already.




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I would say after last night timmy needs to rest down back rather than fwd.
Keathy still looks hurt from the praccie match, and after 2 rounds there seems to be no other reliable KPD in the dogs.
Timmy can take a grab and is super mobile.
Would prefer the Bont resting fwd.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Well I suppose the data from a single match is conclusive! Hitout wins do have a strong correlation with clearances! I'll let the data analysts in the industry know that they missed this one!

If we want to draw conclusions from a single match then we could also say that having more scoring shots has a negative correlation with winning.

Please show me the analysis you've performed to demonstrate this weak correlation between hitouts and clearances.

We've seen your talents as an epidemiologist and medical scientist on the COVID thread, then got to see the opinion of an expert in international politics on the Ukraine thread. I look forward to seeing the amazing statistical deep dive you've no doubt conducted to give you this smug sense of superiority.

 

[VitalDread]

Yeah my older sister starting having dizzy spells and fainted and they found out that she had developed epilepsy.

I wouldn't be shocked if the new light show may have had an affected

 

[TBOW]

Does anyone know if every ruck contest is attributed a winner? For instance if both ruckman get hands on the ball and it goes nowhere do they pick a ruckman to give the stat to?
It actually seems to me that Timmy gets more taps than he is attributed or that at least he gets 40-50% onto a lot of the taps that go nowhere. Maybe the "Timmy can't tap' narrative influences the statisticians when they are making a borderline call?

I also think that we do better when Timmy doesn't win the tap so to me that might be more of a coaching and structure issue.

 

[Dale4captain]

Does anyone know if every ruck contest is attributed a winner? For instance if both ruckman get hands on the ball and it goes nowhere do they pick a ruckman to give the stat to?
It actually seems to me that Timmy gets more taps than he is attributed or that at least he gets 40-50% onto a lot of the taps that go nowhere. Maybe the "Timmy can't tap' narrative influences the statisticians when they are making a borderline call?

I also think that we do better when Timmy doesn't win the tap so to me that might be more of a coaching and structure issue.

Yep, counted them last week against the Dees Credited with 18 hitouts but I went through and counted 33 where he was first hand to them. He gets stiffed.

 

[Sentinel]

Please show me the analysis you've performed to demonstrate this weak correlation between hitouts and clearances.

I recall reading a little while back that the correlation between hitouts to advantage and clearances is roughly 60%. I don't know where I read it so can't provide a source, it just struck me as being a little lower than I would have expected. Not sure if anyone can provide the actual data for it.

It's worth remembering though that the stat in isolation isn't doesn't conclusively assess a ruckman's value because clearances (half of the calculation) are generally led by the midfield around the ruck rather than the guy providing the hitouts.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I wouldn't be shocked if the new light show may have had an affected

Absolutely. Is that what was causing the lighting to dim and flash after goals? I thought there was something wrong with my telly! It’s pretty basic knowledge that flashing lights can have a bad effect on the brain, for epilepsy and other conditions, including eyesight. Totally stupid idea.

Getting weary of the AFL thinking they have to keep dreaming up gimmicks to keep or attract their ideal audience.

 

[VitalDread]

Absolutely. Is that what was causing the lighting to dim and flash after goals? I thought there was something wrong with my telly! It’s pretty basic knowledge that flashing lights can have a bad effect on the brain, for epilepsy and other conditions, including eyesight. Totally stupid idea.

Getting weary of the AFL thinking they have to keep dreaming up gimmicks to keep or attract their ideal audience.

They are using the Optus style of light show but in a smaller stadium with the roof closed

Feels like a rave

 

[TommyD13]

We actually have no key defender depth. Created what I feel would be my ‘best 23’ had we have everyone available, and Gardner is still in it by default as there is no one who can push him out. Needs to be a huge priority come draft and trade period, at least one in both periods. Schache, Cordy and O’Brien are all playing for one spot (O’Brien) which is 3rd key back and possibly pinch hit up forward and in ruck. Then there is Keath and Gardner as key defender 1 and 2 and then a bunch of mediums and that’s it. We should have two genuine tall backs in the VFL as a minimum and we have zero…

 

[BulldogMuscle]

So what's clear today after last nights AFL game and today's VFL game is that we have zero developing key defenders at pretty much any level.

The cupboard is bare for depth at both levels, we cop one or two injuries more in the AFL squad and you can pretty much put this season to rest, we need to stop recruiting these small work-horse types as Armorspider above me has said and really focus on building KPP at both VFL and AFL level.
It's gonna be a long, long season...

 

[Bulldogs85]

So what's clear today after last nights AFL game and today's VFL game is that we have zero developing key defenders at pretty much any level.

The cupboard is bare for depth at both levels, we cop one or two injuries more in the AFL squad and you can pretty much put this season to rest, we need to stop recruiting these small work-horse types as Armorspider above me has said and really focus on building KPP at both VFL and AFL level.
It's gonna be a long, long season...

Raak looked good

 

[doggie dog]

Why is Beveridge and our list management so obsessed with recruiting small workhorse types?

Too many of them in the AFL team, too many of them in the VFL team, and we just keep recruiting them.

Recruiting an AFL-standard ruckman and key-defender has been a matter of critical urgency for two years now, and what do we have to show? A 65 year old Stefan Martin who isn't even VFL standard.

There is a lot of experienced footy minds on this board and everyone seems to be in agreeance that the dogs need a backup ruckman and two more reliable KPD.
There has been some KPD mature agers that are worth look but we keep going midfielders and small to medium defenders.
Its not that's me that is confused is it??

 

[footscray1973]

Raak looked good

Good is all relative when compared to most of his team-mates though.